by herrherr on 4/17/13, 1:26 PM with 49 comments
by dragontamer on 4/17/13, 2:05 PM
He's right. Without shorting, options, and future contracts... it becomes impossible for BTC to stabilize in the wake of media exposure. Add on to the fact that the majority of BTC users seem to be idiots (ie: they look at the price as some sort of indicator of BTC penetration, as opposed to more useful statistics), and you've definitely got a situation where bubbles will continuously form.
Anyway, I don't necessarily think he's right. There will always be some function that fits some data... and he may have gotten lucky this time that data fits his model. Either way, it is certainly an interesting piece to read. And his model seems to have solid theory behind it.
by kiba on 4/17/13, 1:55 PM
We now have a testable prediction. Let see if bitcoin actually falls to to 20 and 10 dollars per bitcoin within 4 weeks.
by steven777400 on 4/17/13, 2:17 PM
Traditionally, the idea with a bubble is that everyone (well, almost everyone) knows it's a bubble, but no one seems to know when it will pop or how far it will fall.
Would this same model have fit the 2008 stock market collapse? Would it have accurately showed when and where the bottom was?
Would this same model have fit the BTC curve as well if the dataset had started 100 or 200 days earlier or later?
Just some curiousity about a model I'm hearing of for the first time.
by joshuahedlund on 4/17/13, 2:06 PM
by arpp on 4/17/13, 3:43 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nash_equilibrium
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
I though you guys were more smart than this.
by jerguismi on 4/17/13, 2:06 PM
And also a new funded startup coming: http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/04/11/coinsetter-the-newes...
by snake_plissken on 4/17/13, 3:46 PM