from Hacker News

Lockheed,Boeing and Northrop Will Be the Reason Why US Could Lose the Next War

by fsagx on 5/29/25, 7:36 PM with 5 comments

• by Jtsummers on 5/29/25, 10:06 PM

  You can blame the primes, but the fundamental problem lies within DOD, the Executive broadly, and Congress. DOD program management has been terrible for decades, especially any system that has software as the sole, key, or critical component. They just can't figure it out and billions are wasted every year with nothing delivered.

  > A February 2022 study by the Department of Defense (DOD) found that after decades of consolidation, the number of defense prime contractors had shrunk from 51 to fewer than 10. Further, many segments of the defense market have become controlled by companies with monopoly or near-monopoly positions.

  This consolidation was explicitly promoted in the 1990s. This promotion and the permission for the mergers was a choice on the part of the US gov't and DOD. This isn't an accident of history, there was no decline in military spending that caused companies to fail and merge like this. It was a deliberate choice during decades of increasing defense spending to promote and permit consolidation of the defense industry.

• by huijzer on 5/29/25, 7:42 PM

  Well the main issue is of course that somehow China is nowadays producing the most advanced batteries, solar panels, and drones. All pretty useful stuff for advanced weaponry.

  At the same time, don’t underestimate newer companies like Anduril or SpaceX.

• by taylodl on 5/29/25, 8:38 PM

  Not understanding why the US lost the war in Afghanistan may be the reason why the US loses the next war.