from Hacker News

A Song of “Full Self-Driving”

by latexr on 5/29/25, 9:27 AM with 102 comments

  • by ddalex on 5/29/25, 10:45 AM

    Full self driving is either a hard problem - requiring advanced sensors and algorithms; or an easy problem - solvable with cameras and neural nets.

    If it's hard, Waymo has an insurmountable lead. If it is easy, everyone can replicate easily what Tesla is doing.

    I'm not seeing any strategic moat on Tesla's side

  • by x187463 on 5/29/25, 12:40 PM

    FSD is incredible in that it works everywhere, most of the time. The problem is it works most of the time. I do not think the current FSD sensor suite (camera only) will ever be safely capable of true unsupervised FSD. I use FSD every day. I would seriously estimate FSD has put 95% of the miles on my car. I regularly encounter the following:

    * treating red lights like stop signs

    * completely ignoring flash reds

    * stopping at flashing yellows

    * ignoring school zones

    * driving 10mph under the limit

    * driving 20mph over the limit

    * ignoring turn only lanes resulting in being dumped into oncoming traffic until it leisurely moves back into the correct lane

    * waiting until the last minute to get into the correct lane to make a turn/take an exit

    * ignoring signs indicating a lane ends and having to force its way into traffic

    * ignoring signs a lane ends and changing into the lane only to have to change back immediately

    * pulling out in front of cars, especially at night or other camera obscuring events

    * ignoring cars merging onto the highway and blocking them until I take over and get out of the way

    I treat it like cruise control. And based on the recent accident during which FSD decided to run itself off a perfectly straight, open, clear rode and into a tree, I keep my hand on the wheel.

    Even in a geo-fenced environment, FSD is NOT going to work for unsupervised robo-taxi applications. Musk needs to get out of the way and let them stick LIDARs on these cars.

    All that being said, it has also handled really complex driving in/around DC/Baltimore including some tricky merges/transitions that are hard to track as a human driver. It's knowledge of all of the surrounding vehicles allows it to make these maneuvers with far more confidence that I would. It also frees me up to track the bigger picture of traffic while not having to manage my speed/lane position. It's like driving with a friend who's not necessarily the best driver, but is basically competent. Let's just hope it doesn't decide to drive me in to a tree for no particular reason.

  • by bhouston on 5/29/25, 11:14 AM

    Maybe Elon isn’t Stark or Scott and the world is more complex than simple analogies.

    Elon is a great promoter and does have visionary ideas and has often been able to execute them when he is paying attention.

    He is also running a harem to get +100 or more children, seems racist for many reasons, over promises (but this comes with being a promoter), and has biased X/twitter to favour whatever ideas he currently likes.

  • by Coeur on 5/29/25, 1:48 PM

    "Lane-departure detection, front-collision avoidance, adaptive cruise control, emergency break assist—all of these features are powered by lidar."

    That's not true. Lane-departure detection uses mostly radar and cameras, adaptive cruise control usually uses radar and sometimes cameras, and emergency break assist is often just a brake pedal sensor. Front-collision avoidance uses lidar in some cars from the last 2 years.

    Lidar might very much be needed for full self driving, but it not yet used in many cars on the road today.

    The writer does not have all his facts straight.

  • by walthamstow on 5/29/25, 10:54 AM

    The thing about Tesla having more cars on the road is obviously true, but Google Street View captures my house in London at a decent frequency, about twice a year, so those cars are driving around capturing data all the time in major cities.

    I assume they're capturing more than just images, does anyone know for a fact?

  • by kklisura on 5/29/25, 11:19 AM

    > For years, Elon Musk has been promising that Teslas will operate completely autonomously in “Full Self Driving” (FSD) mode. And when I say years, I mean years...

    > Musk was sued by a group of shareholders who claimed that the Tesla boss had defrauded them with his lofty claims about the capabilities of Tesla’s advanced driver assistance tech, including Autopilot and Full Self-Driving. [1]

    > After hearing the case, U.S. district Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin claimed that the plaintiffs had failed to prove that the Tesla boss had acted with “deliberate recklessness,” .... That’s because Musk’s lawyers didn’t decide to argue that Tesla’s claims about its self-driving abilities were perfectly accurate. Instead, the legal team representing Musk basically said that nobody would realistically believe what Musk was banging on about... [1]

    > In a mind-numbing statement, Musk’s lawyers argue that his claims about Tesla Autopilot safety were “vague statements of corporate optimism are not objectively verifiable” [2]

    > The lawyers even argued, successfully, that “no reasonable investor would rely” on many of the alleged misleading statements because they are “mere puffing” [2]

    Never trust Elon's statements.

    [1] https://qz.com/tesla-robotaxi-lawsuit-elon-musk-lawyers-clai...

    [2] https://electrek.co/2024/10/02/elon-musk-celebrates-winning-...

  • by amarcheschi on 5/29/25, 11:05 AM

    The title made me think of something different, well, there actually is a song about musk and its cars, although it is from 4 years ago

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LpxT9TLGoLI&pp=ygUScGVuZWxvcGU...

  • by cbeach on 5/29/25, 11:30 AM

    To save your time, this is another article that focusses on the author's personal (and political) affectations with Elon Musk, as opposed to being a substantive technical review of FSD.

    FTA:

    > we’ve turned over large portions of America to insanely rich people who have no idea what they’re doing

    > It’s about oligarchy

    > What happened? Elon Musk was stupid. That’s what happened.

    > the stock market pretend that Musk hasn’t failed

    Anyone who's seen recent FSD videos on YouTube will understand the incredible progress that has been made, and how FSD is a real-world solution whereas Waymo (geo fences, "safety drivers" etc) isn't comparable

  • by jp57 on 5/29/25, 12:05 PM

    “Of course we already have full self-driving technology. It’s called Waymo…”

    Is it FSD, though? Understand that Waymo has remote tele-operators, who can intercede if necessary. How many are there? How many cars does each handle? I’m not sure the company makes that public.