by Leary on 4/5/25, 3:24 AM with 191 comments
by greaber on 4/5/25, 5:54 AM
by kristopolous on 4/5/25, 5:31 AM
he does have a bunch of crypto pump and dumpers as advisors.
by seydor on 4/5/25, 6:19 AM
by qwertox on 4/5/25, 5:59 AM
by __MatrixMan__ on 4/5/25, 5:29 AM
by barkingcat on 4/5/25, 10:14 PM
Anyone who's trying to make arguments based on the formula itself is the dog being wagged.
by user1241320 on 4/5/25, 5:18 AM
by klooney on 4/5/25, 4:40 AM
by ilrwbwrkhv on 4/5/25, 5:10 AM
by maeil on 4/5/25, 7:13 AM
by fblp on 4/5/25, 5:45 AM
by whatever1 on 4/5/25, 6:31 AM
The “reciprocal” formula does not even consider this. China can impose a 1000% tariff and the formula will not move :facepalm:
by croes on 4/5/25, 5:26 AM
The Trump Administration ignores the services and only looks at goods. So the base is already wrong.
by foxglacier on 4/5/25, 6:16 AM
I wonder if the change in leftists is just a reaction to Trump who they didn't like because of his personality. Now everybody's making economic arguments which is nothing like what the older type of leftist would do.
by ArtTimeInvestor on 4/5/25, 5:53 AM
If we look at his actions from this angle, could they make sense?
by senectus1 on 4/6/25, 3:41 AM
ie, Huge tariffs on China means US doesnt buy from china, Huge tariffs FROM china means us doesnt SELL to china...
a country isolated is a country that slowly chokes...
by jmyeet on 4/5/25, 5:27 AM
1. The evisceration of American soft power will really diminish the direct and indirect harm the US intentionally and unintentionally causes. Just look at China, South Korea and Japan deciding to respond to tariffs together [1]. That is an absolutely astonishing event given fairly recent history. Future retellings of history will correct portray the US as the actual Evil Empire; and
2. All of these actions are doing a ton to break the myth of meritocracy. The people involved in this, at the highest levels, are clearly demonstrating just what complete and utter morons they are. This is why fascism flames out: valuing loyalty above all else results in an administration of sycophantic morons.
This is going to do untold economic harm in the interim but ironically it's accelerating the rise of China as a global power, despite the fact that this administration are China hawks and see these tariffs as a means reducing China's power, which it won't.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/china-japan-south-korea-will-j...
by hayst4ck on 4/5/25, 6:06 AM
If you don't believe that, then his policies are terrifyingly not confusing. If you believe his policies are primarily meant to benefit American oligarchs or Russia, his policies are even less confusing.
Withdrawing support for Ukraine and not putting tariffs on Russia, despite putting tariffs on uninhabited "Heard Island and McDonald Islands" is probably the least confused I've been since his inauguration. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump...
by renewiltord on 4/5/25, 4:57 AM
by hello_computer on 4/5/25, 6:21 AM
AEI is just another church of Austrian economics--still burning incense for the ghost of Milton Friedman. If you told any of them, "Tariffs, or your mother dies in her sleep tonight.", they would reply in chorus, "Oh well, that's why I keep a picture to remember her by." If any of these people actually knew what they were talking about, they would be fabulously wealthy hedgies like Dalio or Simons, rather than "think-tank" shills.
by walterbell on 4/5/25, 5:47 AM
There is a 2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350
The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella, as the manufacturing and tradeable sectors bear the brunt of the costs... Tariffs provide revenue, and if offset by currency adjustments, present minimal inflationary or otherwise adverse side effects.
https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump...> Miran.. points to Trump’s application of tariffs on China in 2018-2019, which he argues “passed with little discernible macroeconomic consequence.” He adds that during that time the U.S. dollar rose to offset the macroeconomic impact of the tariffs and resulted in significant revenue for the U.S. Treasury.. “The effective tariff rate on Chinese imports increased by 17.9 percentage points from the start of the trade war in 2018 to the maximum tariff rate in 2019,” the report said. “As the financial markets digested the news, the Chinese renminbi depreciated against the dollar over this period by 13.7 per cent, so that the after-tariff USD import price rose by 4.1 per cent.”
by timka on 4/7/25, 10:20 PM
by DarknessFalls on 4/5/25, 5:48 AM
1.) Shock the market into dropping several hundred points on the S&P and Nasdaq indices, thereby making quite a bit of money on the way down and then back up again. and
2.) Lower tariffs in exchange for patronage from countries or specific businesses that want a port opened in this new trade firewall.
by rramadass on 4/5/25, 5:28 AM
by deepfriedchokes on 4/5/25, 5:01 AM
by raffael_de on 4/5/25, 11:38 AM
The tariffs are for forcing the entire world to renegotiate anything that he is interested in. And that plan will work. They will ALL negotiate, with him holding the upper hand.
PS: Many of the replies suggest that countries can achieve independence of US companies and the US Dollar. While that is possible they forget a key weakness of democracies. Politicians are elected based on short-term benefits and avoidance of suffering. All those required actions to reach independence require serious long-term efforts that detrimentally impact the comfort of the respective voting population at least short-term. That's why those adjustments probably won't happen. Trump knows that and takes advantage of it. Countries not governed by a democratic system are usually led by an elite who'll be indifferent of pretty much anything we are debating here - they just want to obtain more power and wealth. And they'll be achieving this easier when they cooperate with who is factually the most powerful man on the planet.
by charcircuit on 4/5/25, 5:28 AM
All of those other things, minus geography are influenced by the terrifs. Terrifs make economic incentives to invest in America, for America to gain comparative advantages, etc.