by bikenaga on 3/14/25, 3:11 PM with 1 comments
by jfengel on 3/14/25, 7:50 PM
Or, our models are too conservative, and the world is warming even faster than they anticipated. In which case, temperatures will not revert to the expected trend, and continue on a course with even more extreme events, more often than their model predicts.
If so, we should know within a few years. Their model predicts that this kind of extreme temperature occurs only once in 512 years. If it occurs again, it will be impossible to claim that it's merely a low-probability event that happened to occur.
(Just as the paper says that this extreme jump is also impossible without including anthropogenic climate change in the model.)