from Hacker News

Why data on the economy doesn't match our feelings

by toomuchtodo on 3/11/25, 6:29 PM with 20 comments

  • by 0cf8612b2e1e on 3/11/25, 7:45 PM

      So unemployment — as we’d like to say it: “functional unemployment” — it’s really in the 20s, which is horrifying. And for people of color, it’s much worse.
    If you look at the linked “functional unemployment” chart (https://www.lisep.org/tru) the numbers in the past three years are the lowest on record. It has been on a consistent downward trajectory, minus 2008 crash plus COVID, so that does not seem worth highlighting. The basket of goods argument (the representative purchases for a household is unrepresentative) is more compelling.

  • by gruez on 3/11/25, 8:10 PM

    >And if you look at the basic things that they can afford to buy, they have inflated over the last 20 years more rapidly than the CPI. So they’re worse off.

    This is an unsatisfying explanation. By his own admission these factors has been happening for the past two decades, but the divergence between consumer expectations and "fundamentals" only really happened post pandemic:

    https://archive.is/ry4YC

    https://archive.is/yiT52

  • by borgdefenser on 3/11/25, 10:46 PM

    In my adult life, the only time I can ever remember the consensus that the economy was good was Christmas 1999.

    The internet gave people hope about the future in 1999 but now with the internet our desires can never match the reality that follows.

    Instead people live in either a post-bubble crash that is about to crash further or if things are going well that just means we are in a super bubble that will have a historic crash. Repeat.

  • by Leary on 3/11/25, 8:49 PM

    Maybe because real estate prices are not captured by CPI, only rental prices. People are taking longer and longer to save up for a house[1].

    https://www.crews.bank/blog/real-estate-prices-vs.-income

  • by kittikitti on 3/11/25, 10:49 PM

    When I was laid off, HR strategically did it so it wouldn't be reflected in the unemployment numbers. I don't trust any of these macro economic numbers.

  • by dumbledoren on 3/12/25, 6:12 PM

    Because modern 'economy' is just holistic economics jargon to rationalize the system of inequality that extracts economic value from the bottom and gives it to the top...

  • by chickenpotpie on 3/11/25, 9:09 PM

    Honestly, this is a completely bogus interview that is at best, misleading, and at worst, outright lies.

    > Well, all that is absolutely true, but sadly it’s even worse than that. What it doesn’t account for is people who have a piece of a job — they work an hour or two here and there, but they want a full-time job. It doesn’t account for that.

    The BLS does track that as part of the U-6 unemployment rate which is near a 20 year low. The U-6 unemployment rate counts people that work less than 35 hours per week, but want to work more hours, as unemployed.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE