by bwestergard on 3/10/25, 5:02 PM with 136 comments
by o_nate on 3/10/25, 5:34 PM
by breckenedge on 3/10/25, 5:29 PM
Definitely not yet peaked IMO. However yea, I don’t see it fully replacing developers in the next 1-2 years — still gets caught in loops way too often and makes silly mistakes.
by daedrdev on 3/10/25, 5:29 PM
by hnthrow90348765 on 3/10/25, 5:49 PM
I think bootcamps will bloom again and companies will hire people from there. The bootcamp pipeline is way faster than 4 year degrees and easy to spin up if the industry decides the dev pipeline needs more juniors. Most businesses don't need CompSci degrees for the implementation work because it's mostly CRUD apps, so the degree is often a signal of intellect.
This model has a few advantages to employers (provided the bootcamps aren't being predatory) like ISAs and referrals. Bootcamp reputations probably need some work though.
What I think will go away is the bootstraps idea that you can self-teach and do projects by yourself and cold-apply to junior positions and expect an interview on merit alone. You'll need to network to get an 'in' at a company, but that can be slow. Or do visible open source work which is also slow.
by rvz on 3/10/25, 5:59 PM
There is also a race to zero where the best AI models are getting cheaper and big tech is there attempting to kill your startup (again) by lowering prices until it is free for as long as they want it.
More YC startups accepted are so-called AI startups are just vehicles for OpenAI to copy the best one and for the rest of the 90% of them to die.
This is an obvious bubble waiting to burst. With Big Tech coming out stronger, AI frontier companies becoming a new elite group "Big AI" and the so-called other startups getting wiped out.
by jsight on 3/10/25, 5:24 PM
>100x growth ahead for sure.
by qoez on 3/10/25, 5:43 PM
by cenobyte on 3/10/25, 5:34 PM
It will get so much worse before it starts to fade.
Infecting every commercial, movie plot, and article that you read.
I can still here the Yahoo yodel in my head from radio and TV commercials.
by zzzeek on 3/10/25, 5:30 PM
by siliconc0w on 3/10/25, 5:59 PM
I do think we're overbuilding on Nvidia and the CUDA moat isn't as big as people think, inference workloads will dominate, and purpose-built inference accelerators will be preferred in the next hardware-cycle.
by ypeterholmes on 3/10/25, 5:49 PM
by skepticATX on 3/10/25, 5:43 PM
by _cs2017_ on 3/10/25, 5:59 PM
by zekenie on 3/10/25, 6:54 PM
by gdubs on 3/10/25, 5:45 PM
On the one hand it has been two years of "x is cooked because this week y came out..." and on the other hand, people who seem to have formed their opinions based on ChatGPT 3.5 and have never checked in again on the state-of-the-art LLMs.
In the same time period, social media has done its thing of splitting people into camps on the matter. So, people – broadly speaking, no not you wise HN reader – are either in the "AI is theft and slop" camp or the "AI will bring about infinite prosperity" camp.
Reality is way more nuanced, as usual. There are incredible things you can do today with AI that would have seemed impossible twenty years ago. I can quickly make some python script that solves a real-world problem for me, by giving fuzzy instructions to a computer. I can bounce ideas off of an LLM and, even if it's not always 'correct', it's still a valuable rubber-ducky.
If you look at the pace of development – compare MidJourney images from a few years ago to the relatively stable generative video clips being created today – it's really hard to say with a straight face that things aren't progressing at a dizzying rate.
I can kind of stand in between these two extreme points of view, and paradigm-shift myself into them for a moment. It's not surprising that creative people who have been promised a wonderful world from technology are skeptical – lots of broken promises and regressions from big tech over the past couple of decades. Also unclear why suddenly society would become redistributive when nobody has to work anymore, when the trend has been a concentration of wealth in the hands of the people who own the algorithms.
On the other hand, there is a lot of drudgery in modern society. There's a lot of evolution in our brains that's biased to roaming around picking berries and playing music and dancing with our little bands. Sitting in traffic to go sit in a small phone both and review spreadsheets is something a lot of people would happily outsource to an AI.
The bottom line – if there is one – is that uncertainty and risk are also huge opportunities. But, it's really hard for anyone to say where all of this is actually headed.
I come back to the simultaneity of over-hyped/under-hyped.
by OldGreenYodaGPT on 3/10/25, 5:48 PM
by ninetyninenine on 3/10/25, 5:48 PM
It took a decade to reach LLMs. It will likely be another decade for agi. There is still clear trendline progress and we have clear real world targets of actual human level intelligence that exists so we know it can be done.
by th0ma5 on 3/10/25, 5:23 PM
by codingwagie on 3/10/25, 5:34 PM
I propose an internet ban for anyone calling the generative ai top, and a public tar and feathering
by adpirz on 3/10/25, 5:41 PM
...but now it'll be exciting to let them bake. We need some time to really explore what we can do with them. We're still mostly operating in back-and-forth chats, I think there's going to be lots of experimentation with different modalities of interaction here.
It's like we've just gotten past the `Pets.com` era of GenAI and are getting ready to transition to the app era.
by edanm on 3/11/25, 7:28 AM
I also think it does the common-but-wrong thing of conflating between investment in big AI companies, and how useful GenAI is and will be. It's completely possible for the investments in OpenAI to end up worthless, and for it to collapse completely, while GenAI still ends up as big as most people clailm.
Lastly, I think this article severely downplays how useful LLMs are now.
> In my occupation of software development, querying ChatGPT and DeepSeek has largely replaced searching sites like StackOverflow. These chatbots generally save time with prompts like "write a TypeScript type declaration for objects that look like this", "convert this function from Python to Javascript", "provide me with a list of the scientific names of bird species mentioned directly or indirectly in this essay".
I mean, yes, they do that... but there are tools today that are starting to be able to look at a real codebase, get a prompt like "fix this bug" or "implement this feature", and actually do it. None of them are perfect yet, and they're all still limited... but I think you have to have zero imagination to think that they are going to stop exactly here.
I think even with no fundamental advances in the underlying tech, it is entirely possible we will be replacing most programming with prompting. I don't think that will make software devs obsolete, it might be the opposite - but "LLMs are a slightly better StackOverflow" is a huge understatement.
by mordae on 3/10/25, 6:50 PM
Maybe in the US.
by sunami-ai on 3/10/25, 5:34 PM
I keep posting our work as an example and NO ONE here (Old HN is dead) has managed to point out any reasoning issues (we redacted the in-between thinking most recently like the thinking traces that people were treating as the final answer)
I dare you to tell me this is not useful when we are signing up customers daily for trial:
Https://labs.sunami.ai/feed
by mirawelner on 3/10/25, 5:55 PM
GOD
by dwedge on 3/10/25, 5:42 PM