from Hacker News

Timing the Markets: Is It Possible? (Part 2) [Deep Dive]

by gagan2020 on 3/4/25, 5:56 PM with 3 comments

• by creer on 3/4/25, 6:44 PM

  See "Yes, you can time the market!, Ben Stein, Phil DeMuth, Wiley 2003" for a simple and actually investable method simply looking at the S&P500 index. The main problem with it being that it's a very long term method - that would test the patience of most.

• by gagan2020 on 3/4/25, 5:56 PM

  The debate over market timing is often dismissed with a simple “don’t try,” but Part 2 of this analysis digs into the nuances most discussions miss. Using historical data, behavioral psychology, and case studies, it challenges the binary "yes/no" framing and explores:

  Why even rational investors fall into timing traps (spoiler: it’s not just greed).

  Quantitative thresholds where timing might add value, based on market cycle analysis.

  The role of algorithmic tools vs. human intuition in modern strategies.

  For HN readers: If you’ve ever built models around market data, tested timing algorithms, or have strong opinions on efficient markets, this piece is a catalyst for debate. How do you reconcile historical volatility with long-term holding? Is there a middle ground between passive indexing and active timing?

  Curious to hear from quant-minded folks, data scientists, or anyone who’s backtested timing strategies. What’s your take?