from Hacker News

Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

by myroon5 on 3/4/25, 1:28 AM with 341 comments

  • by xnx on 3/4/25, 2:16 AM

    Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

  • by skeeter2020 on 3/4/25, 1:53 AM

    If this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?

  • by diego_moita on 3/4/25, 2:20 AM

    I have an EV (Kia Niro EV 2024). I don't want ever to go back to gas.

    Reasons:

    * the driving experience is just much, much better: punch & acceleration, stability, quietness, etc.

    * if you charge at home it is a lot cheaper than gas

    * it is so easy to "fuel": you plug it in when you arrive home and unplug the next morning

    Edit: also, after I installed solar cells at home, I drive almost for free!

  • by ZeroGravitas on 3/4/25, 12:16 PM

    The "electric" share here includes plug-in hybrids which, if we're nitpicking, have an internal combustion engine.

    Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower.

    I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's swamped by other data inluences.

  • by Deprogrammer9 on 3/4/25, 3:15 AM

  • by toomuchtodo on 3/4/25, 1:38 AM

    Historical event. It’s all downhill from here.

    Related:

    Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

  • by bArray on 3/4/25, 10:38 AM

    I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange.

    If you see the breakdown graph [1], the likes of Norway is about to peak at 100%. The UK, US and EU are already becoming saturated, and China have saturated their internal markets and now face export tariffs to other significant markets to prevent dumping. The largest driving forces for this trend are essentially saturated.

    Just in the EU for example we see that energy prices continue to increase per kWh [2], further reducing the "low cost benefit" of electricity that EVs previously enjoyed. We also see governments beginning to realise that they miss out on vehicle tax for EVs due to incentives, and such benefits begin to be withheld [3].

    As the global economy continues to slow, I expect to see EVs and any green agenda items decrease in popularity, and a return to combustion engines and other policies with higher economic growth.

    [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share

    [2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

    [3] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low...

  • by davidblue on 3/4/25, 2:48 AM

    Can I just ask - forgive the potential ignorance - if EVs have been proven to be less net carbon emitting with their manufacturing and expected disposal emissions factored in?

  • by readthenotes1 on 3/4/25, 2:10 AM

    From the source, which more clearly states "we're biased", the massive change is because of EV cars in China.

    https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/executive...

  • by woodpanel on 3/4/25, 8:13 AM

    How long, until it becomes illegal to come up with these feel-good mood-affiliation "reports" that paint Plug-In Hybrids (i.e. combustion-engines equipped with a supportive battery) as Electric Vehicles?

  • by xeonmc on 3/4/25, 7:45 AM

    I will never buy an EV, not because of its powertrain but because there is no way to avoid their spyware.

    Granted, the same goes for modern gas cars, which is also why I stick to secondhand but premium pre-infotainment cars

  • by p0w3n3d on 3/4/25, 8:47 AM

    In my city you cannot charge your car inside the underground garage. No one will build the required facility to ease electric car fire extinguishing. Therefore the buildings will default to deny.

  • by xyst on 3/4/25, 2:51 PM

    Optimistically, the increase of EV sales is good for decreasing overall tail pipe emissions.

    But I still see the EV as saving the car industry rather than saving the world/environment. Reducing tail pipe emissions is great, but if it means increased tire wear particles, brake dust, increased wear on road infrastructure and increased demand on lithium supplies.

    Are we really better off than before?

    I would like to see a future where the private vehicle is _optional_ and public transportation is a viable option. A future where our cities and towns are not built around private vehicles (ie, expensive roads, parking garages, street parking, massive highways, infrastructure maintenance).

    That’s a much better goal to achieve than pushing EVs or self driving cars.

  • by piterrro on 3/4/25, 11:43 AM

    This title is a clickbait since the sales peaked... In 2018? Since then it lowered consecutively

  • by mmaunder on 3/4/25, 2:59 PM

    Federal EV tax credits saved buyers about $1 billion in 2024. Also huge tax credits, tax rebates and tax exemptions. Also subsidized EV charging stations.

    In the U.S., states have awarded massive economic development packages to EV and battery factories. Georgia, for instance, gave $1.5 billion to Rivian and $1.8 billion to Hyundai for EV plants. Nationwide, over $13.8 billion has been committed to at least 51 such projects, often funded partly by federal pandemic relief funds like the American Rescue Plan Act.

    So the landscape has profoundly changed and it’ll be interesting to see what this does to growth.

  • by janalsncm on 3/4/25, 2:12 AM

    This is great news. Of course new car purchases are a leading indicator of the overall makeup of cars. And people might be buying fewer cars if their old ones last longer.

  • by conductr on 3/4/25, 9:29 AM

    I really wish something like the lit motors c1/aev would hit the market. But it’s been in development for over a decade I believe

    https://www.litmotors.com/preorder-aev

  • by pengaru on 3/4/25, 1:46 AM

    What's strange to me is according to the graph it's not just combustion engine cars that peaked, cars overall more or less did too, in the graph.

    Are trucks like the F150 not being captured by this data? How literal is "cars"?

  • by brickfaced on 3/4/25, 4:03 AM

    Seems unlikely that we'll ever totally move away from combustion engines, simply due to sunk costs plus the advantages of energy density and quick refilling. I expect we'll see net-zero carbon emission gasoline and other hydrocarbons sold at the pump within the next few decades, produced with either solar or nuclear energy:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_proces...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8zOHZINyG8

    Compressed natural gas (methane) is even easier to synthesize from the raw ingredients than gasoline or diesel fuels. It's used today in many city buses, fleet vehicles, and private cars in certain parts of the world:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction

    Such fuels could become less attractive if we invent lighter, cheaper, and much faster-charging batteries than the current state of the art, but I'm not holding my breath.

  • by metalman on 3/4/25, 10:47 AM

    "ice car engines peaked?" likely wrong there is no charging infrastructur, and no way to retrofit into housing on a mass scale that will deal with the threat of a whole apartment building parking garage going up in flames, resulting in mass casualties. So until there are non flamable solid state batteries at the right price point, electrificationof the transport grid will stall, while demand for mobility will continue to increase, and ICE cars may very well keep or gain market share still.

  • by dackdel on 3/4/25, 8:54 AM

    Ill probably buy a petrol car for my lifetime. As long as there is a petrol station to fill her up.

  • by nottorp on 3/4/25, 2:48 PM

    ... but they peaked because cars and fuel have got more expensive, not because everyone is rushing to buy an even more expensive EV.

  • by divan on 3/4/25, 12:50 PM

    Moderators should fix the title and add "in 2018" to the end, as it's on the chart itself. Omitting "in 2018" part changes message completely and is misleading.

  • by paganel on 3/4/25, 9:32 AM

    It's all because of the crazy regulations and insane taxes that normal people have to pay in order to own a car, and not a refrigerator on wheels, that's the gist of it.

    Basically the laptop classes (all actual or wannabe EV-owners) have started revolting against the fact that they have to inhale cancer-igneous fumes on their way to their yoga classes, and this is the result of that.