by nabaraz on 2/15/25, 6:21 PM with 261 comments
by hardwaregeek on 2/15/25, 8:52 PM
by meisel on 2/15/25, 6:58 PM
by jordanmorgan10 on 2/15/25, 7:01 PM
by deeg on 2/15/25, 8:49 PM
The idea that players are more specialized is wrong. In the 90s there were plenty of defense-only players like Denis Rodman and Ben Wallace; they might not start in today's NBA, let alone make all-star teams, because they are too one-dimensional.
A good counter to these arguments is made on the Thinking Basketball podcast. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fp4but75EjY
by Xenoamorphous on 2/15/25, 6:51 PM
This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball/the NBA went on for decades without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?
by jackschultz on 2/15/25, 8:43 PM
It's been interesting to follow some changes teams have made the past two seasons where teams are figuring out how to better time steals when a pitch is thrown, and which players to go after. For example, pitchers with slow releases and bad catchers.
Base running aggressiveness that some teams have been doing as well. The value of going 1st to 3rd on a single is massive and getting speed, and judgement and wanting your players to do that will be more and more valued.
I actually searched "base running aggressiveness" to see what articles had to say, and two months ago Statcast put in a new stat called "Net Bases Gained"[1]. Crazy.
This mimics the changes in NBA talked about here, where value in players changes over times when new ways of playing show their value. It's kind of like the 4 minute mile though, where until someone went out and was able to run under 4 minutes / make all those 3s / run that aggressive on the base paths / go for it on more 4th downs, teams are scared to be the first.
[0] https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SB_leagues.shtml [1] https://www.mlb.com/news/breaking-down-statcast-s-new-baseru...
by tclancy on 2/15/25, 7:02 PM
by grandempire on 2/15/25, 7:13 PM
Playing sports is a fun activity to get exercise, it’s not worth getting emotionally invested in teams or leagues.
by beoberha on 2/15/25, 6:54 PM
That said, trends are cyclical. Look at the role of the running back in the NFL. There will always be outlier players like Shaq who will buck the trends and exploit matchups.
by necovek on 2/15/25, 7:10 PM
They mention Boston Celtics, but they are only a single time champion, and we can see plenty other teams with good chances to beat them.
And I'd argue we are moving further away from specialization: now centers are required to shoot 3 pointers at a high clip and high percentage, they have high number of assists (it's not just Jokic, look at Iannis, Sabonis...).
And centers need to defend smaller, faster players when switching, just like smaller players need to defend centers.
by streptomycin on 2/15/25, 9:10 PM
Obviously people shot fewer 3s back then, but as far as I remember, Bruce Bowen was really the first 3-and-D player back in the 90s.
Gone are the days of an all-around player. There is no longer a need for a player who does everything. Look at players like Kobe Bryant and Lebron James (early career); they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.
Not sure how true that is. People sometimes call the modern style "heliocentric" - one star who makes the offense work, surrounded by a bunch of role players. These star players often do basically everything, albeit most are better at some things than others. But that's always been true, stars in the old days were not always perfectly balanced.
And stars these days have a ton of variability. Look at the best players in the league - Jokic, Shai, Giannis, Luka, Embiid (when healthy..) - those guys all play very different styles of basketball, and that's awesome!
But I do agree with the overall point of the article. I find it annoying when I'm watching a game and so many possessions there's just not much happening. A couple passes around the perimeter, someone jacks up a moderately contested 3, rinse and repeat. Not the most exciting basketball. That doesn't happen every play, and there's still plenty of exciting plays and players, but it happens a lot more than it used to.
by lawgimenez on 2/15/25, 6:55 PM
by bmitc on 2/15/25, 7:05 PM
For example, if you have a team that posts up in the middle, actually moves the ball around and not just around the perimeter, and utilizes the shot clock well, this is going to wear down a team by forcing them to play rough defense, reducing the effectiveness of the three point shot over the course of the game.
Part of the reason of the decline e of interesting basketball is the insane relaxation of rules. Offensive players can travel, carry, flop, ect. all the while knowing that defensive players are handicapped in the contact they can initiate.
by asimpletune on 2/15/25, 10:50 PM
A big conversation I see now days is what’s “wrong” with the modern nba, with too many 3’s being the most common refrain. That’s silly. I will tell you what’s actually wrong about the nba. They’re playing the most amazing basketball the worlds ever seen, but the entertainment ecosystem around them hasn’t changed at all. Literally they just talk about the stupidest stuff, like who’s the GOAT, instead of actually educating their audiences about the incredible level of play that exists now days.
You could argue that people aren’t interested in seeing that, but I don’t think we will ever know until it’s been tried. Instead, sports pundits are just being negative about the sport and filling the airwaves with low effort, toxic cliches while providing zero information about the brilliance we’re seeing. As to why I think people would actually care to know, I think it’s because once you’re exposed to this stuff it sticks and then you can’t unsee it. You start to notice the patterns and enjoy the game again.
So anyways sorry for the rant but it drives me nuts. Basketball is so cool right now once you start to get what you’re actually seeing and players can be so smart too. It’s amazing.
by rambambram on 2/15/25, 7:02 PM
by RugnirViking on 2/15/25, 6:47 PM
by 1123581321 on 2/15/25, 6:49 PM
by bentt on 2/16/25, 9:16 PM
If there's any problem with basketball right now it's that Adam Silver is trying too many radical things and leaving history behind in uncomfortable ways. I mean, he's talking about going to 10 minute quarters! That will invalidate basically every record ever. I could go on and on, but the NBA game itself is not broken.
by sylens on 2/15/25, 6:52 PM
by pfisherman on 2/15/25, 8:58 PM
by atmosx on 2/15/25, 8:40 PM
While I partially agree with the article's stance, you can't optimize for this[^1] or this[^2] because they’re unpredictable—historically great outliers that defy averages and planning.
[^1] Luka Doncic WCF G5 against the Twolves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H3bGEXk3GA
[^2]: Giannis Antetokoumpo scoring 50p in G6 of the 2021 NBA Finals (featuring 17/19 FTs) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHPLeWsAQw4
by Tarsul on 2/15/25, 8:53 PM
[1]the worst were the conference finals 2018 game 7s: Cavs (9/35); Celtics (7/39). Rockets (9/44); Warriors (9/33).
by refulgentis on 2/15/25, 8:46 PM
by rurban on 2/16/25, 2:38 PM
No, it was Daryll Morey's Houston Rockets around the James Harden era, who started advanced analytics player selection and shot selection. They started with enormous video analytics and Morey runs the yearly Analytics Sports Conference.
Moreyball was way more advanced than Moneyball. You go by the three and die by the three. He still didn't win a championship though.
by layer8 on 2/16/25, 5:36 PM
by xdavidliu on 2/15/25, 11:43 PM
This is the first time I've ever heard this.
> they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.
This is also the first time I've ever heard the phrases "guarded defense" and "caught rebounds".
by exabrial on 2/17/25, 5:52 PM
I much prefer the street ball route: make it a contact sport and stop the flopping.
by threemux on 2/15/25, 6:58 PM
by Mountain_Skies on 2/15/25, 6:29 PM
Maybe the solution is with a different type of 3D model, namely the Wilson 3D printed basketball. It has more drag than the regulation basketball, making long shots more difficult. This could restore the balance between long field goals and shots near the basket.
by sandworm101 on 2/15/25, 8:32 PM
by andrepd on 2/15/25, 9:12 PM
by legitster on 2/15/25, 7:03 PM
The same problem is happening in baseball pitching and football kicking.
by krustyburger on 2/15/25, 6:51 PM
by Animats on 2/15/25, 7:09 PM
by 11101010001100 on 2/15/25, 6:55 PM
by nabaraz on 2/15/25, 6:49 PM
by littlestymaar on 2/15/25, 7:08 PM
Yet Wemby is the most hyped young player since LeBron because of his incredible versatility.
by brm on 2/15/25, 7:07 PM
by thakoppno on 2/15/25, 6:55 PM
by ks2048 on 2/15/25, 6:49 PM
Maybe an NBA team will come up with something like that.
by waderyan on 2/15/25, 6:51 PM
by mmooss on 2/15/25, 9:37 PM
> Players are no longer do-it-alls; they are now given specialized roles.
> they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.
Anyone who even watches games would instinctively use different language. Nobody in basketball speaks this way.
As far as the veracity, I'd really need to see some data.
First, nothing in cutting edge, 3-and-D basketball says to stop playing defense. Defense is the D in 3-and-D.
As just one counter-example to the author's claims, big players - centers and power forwards - have become more generalized. Instead of just playing near the basket on offense and defense, many now handle the ball, pass, and also shoot from outside - the old-style guys who lack those skills have taken big pay cuts. The primary ball-handler for the author's local Golden State Warriors is Draymond Green, their center. The best player in the world is a center renowned especially for their passing, Nikola Jokic.
Wing players (small forwards and shooting guards) do it all. The local Golden State Warriors also have Steph Curry, the best shooter ever and an excellent ball-handler and passer. And they recently acquired Jimmy Butler, an all-star all-around player; here is the coach:
"Jimmy, he's a real deal," Kerr said. "I mean, just a complete basketball player, methodical, under control all the time, plays at his own pace, never turns it over, sees the game and then can get to the line frequently. Great closer, not in the traditional sense where he's going to be Kevin Durant and make four straight midrange jumpers, but it's more of a complete game. Get to the line, make the right pass, get somebody else an open look, get a defensive stop, get a rebound. He's a fantastic player."
https://abc7news.com/post/warriors-draymond-green-calls-new-...
What's changed in the NBA is that 3-point shooting has become more valued, partly supported by analytics, partly because Steph Curry redefined what is possible for 3-point shooting for both playing and for being a star: Before Curry, every kid wanted to be Michael Jordan or others who made miraculous drives to the basket through crowds; after Curry, kids were heaving up shots from ridiculous distances, just like their hero.
You won't be surprised to learn that many people say, 'it's not like the old days', and are debating changing the rules to make everyone play like they did 20 years ago.
Supporting my theory of the author, here is their bio (https://nabraj.com/)
> Hi, I'm NT (Nabaraj T), a full-stack engineer in Northern California. ... ten years of professional experience
> Besides software development, my interests are in embedded circuits and astronomy. I have started my startup to research space technologies. When not tangled with 1s and 0s, I usually watch football, cheering on Chelsea.
by ano-ther on 2/15/25, 6:33 PM
by mooreds on 2/15/25, 11:24 PM
Would be really interesting to read about team records when they field a bunch of specialized players vs generalized players (due to injuries or foul trouble). That would be far more convincing.
by timewizard on 2/15/25, 7:04 PM
Is that why I don't enjoy watching it at all anymore?