from Hacker News

Notes on China

by admp on 12/29/24, 7:06 PM with 154 comments

  • by wahisurf on 12/29/24, 7:51 PM

    > These endless rows of skyscrapers, put up in the construction frenzy of the last few decades, are ugly

    And dangerous, and won't last more than a few decades. Just watch some of the tofu dreg videos https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1eyUAZCb3sA

    > There were very few foreigners. In Beijing I might have seen half a dozen cumulatively across entire seas of people

    Most foreigners from US and Europe have left after the COVID lockdown - they've seen with their own eyes the true nature of authoritarian/dictatorship regime. Also, the closer relationship of Russia and China has many unable to stomach supporting a regime that attacks Ukraine, another democracy. The foreigners are now from Africa, Middle East, or Belt and Road countries.

    > Outside of Shanghai, almost nobody spoke English.

    This is why China will be irrelevant in a few decades, as it recedes into its own shell. When most export manufacturing will have moved to Southeast Asia, when domestic goods is preferred over foreign goods, when export dwindles due to sanctions and tariffs, when it gets harder to harder for average citizens to obtain passports. China will be closed off just like the 18th century, just how Xi Jing Ping wants it.

    > many young people expressed feeling stressed or overwhelmed

    Imagine that you just graduated, and no one is hiring in your fields. And you can only drive didi or meituan, but the pay is decreasing fast, and there are 20+ idle drivers at lunchtime every day, and you are only making $300/month. And next year, there will be another 12+ million graduates - the size of the entire population of Sweden. You are trying to look for a job in another country, but travelling outside the country is discouraged and passports are hard to get.

    > The biggest surprise from talking to Chinese VCs people at AI labs was how capital constrained they felt

    China’s startup scene is dead as investors pull out—’Today, we are like lepers’ https://fortune.com/2024/09/14/china-economy-startup-creatio...

  • by Animats on 12/29/24, 8:17 PM

    "One explanation I heard while there is that there are plenty of menial jobs available, but today's educated youth - who've gone through high school and college - just won't take the low-skilled positions their parents and grandparents did. Meanwhile, there's a real shortage of the high-skilled jobs that would actually match their education and aspirations. It's a mismatch between the jobs available and the jobs young people feel qualified for and willing to do."

    Same problem the US has. Too much education for the job market. Only about half of US college graduates have jobs that actually need a college education. The last time China had this problem, Mao said "It is very necessary for the educated youth to go to the countryside and undergo re-education by poor peasants." 40 million students were rusticated.

    Historically, this leads to unrest. Egypt hit this, with good education but, especially post oil boom, not many jobs that needed it.

  • by jackcampanella on 12/29/24, 8:05 PM

    Curious what led to the decision to use "burner" devices, was it fear of confiscation? I spent 2 weeks in China in 2024 (Tianjin, Tangshan, Chengdu, and Beijing), used Astrill as my VPN on my iphone and macbook pro and didn't experience any connectivity issues or app crashes. I even had a 45min signal voice call with someone state side. I was using Astrill's VIP add-on however.

    > It's a good reminder that what's lacking in life is not time. It's focus. If you're working on what matters, you can advance leaps and bounds in 8 hours. And if you're just clearing the slog, you can spend a lifetime staying in the same place.

    This. Incredibly obvious yet incredibly difficult to put into practice day-to-day. Another underrated perk of traveling internationally. All of a sudden, trivial nonsense starts to reveal itself through absence, allowing you to sort accordingly - carries over when you're at your home-base as well.

  • by clpmsf on 12/29/24, 7:54 PM

    Why is this guy so popular of late? Is it because he manages to book interesting podcast guests? He doesn't seem to have any particularly interesting or impressive original thoughts on display...
  • by Leary on 12/29/24, 7:22 PM

    Americans: I'm not anti-China, just anti-CCP

    Chinese: I'm not anti-west, just anti people who are anti-China

  • by nyokodo on 12/29/24, 7:53 PM

    > I asked him what the hardest part of ramping up production is - apparently constructing factories is just not an issue - tons of construction firms can make you a new facility quite reliably (along with the adjacent dorm room building for workers).

    He never finishes this thought but moves on to a new topic. I want to know what he said in reply!

  • by sebmellen on 12/29/24, 7:16 PM

    I’m only halfway through, but I’m truly impressed with the writing. Very engaging and dense but easy to follow. Dwarkesh is not just a podcast host!
  • by arnvald on 12/29/24, 7:23 PM

    > I kept asking young people about the public intellectual landscape in China - who are their equivalents of Jordan Peterson, Joe Rogan, Lex Friedman, and Sam Harris? The sense I got is that this kind of popular intellectual ecosystem just doesn't exist there

    I have never heard of Sam Harris, but are the other 3 the prominent examples of American intellectual ecosystem? I haven’t listened to them a lot, but in the couple examples of Friedman’s or Rogan’s podcast episodes I listened to, they let their guests say whatever anti-intellectual bs they wanted, without trying to correct the guests. Maybe I chose the wrong episodes?

  • by xg15 on 12/29/24, 8:17 PM

    > We saw again and again small paddy farms surrounding a handful of 5-10 story skyscraper, plopped in the seeming middle of nowhere.

    Without wanting to invalidate any of his points, but his use of "skyscraper" seems a bit inflationary if he includes 10 story apartment high-rises in it.

  • by max_ on 12/29/24, 7:37 PM

    I love Dwarkesh's guests.

    My problem with this podcast, is that the host talks too fast.

    I have found this rushed "fast" talking amongst westerners, but few seem to complain about it. Any one else experience this?

  • by ksynwa on 12/29/24, 7:44 PM

    > This layout seems designed partly for social control - during zero-COVID, authorities could lock down 10,000 people by simply guarding a few entrance gates. The wide roads would also make it easy to move military forces through the city.

    This seems like a bit of a leap? Apart from zero covid, which I say is an exceptional scenario, I haven't heard of Chinese people socially controlled en masse into their home through use of force. The idea of military driving through the middle of city is even more ridiculous.

  • by talldayo on 12/29/24, 7:41 PM

    > Another person told me that these Chinese nationalists were only a vocal minority, similar to the wokes in America circa 2020.

    I have no idea what this is supposed to elicit from me as a reader. "[A] vocal minority, similar to the wokes" ...that won the election?

    It feels like you could say this for every American election year and it would sound equally as stupid. In 2012 it was the economic reformists and pro-regulation pundits, in 2016 it was virulent anti-woke crowd and staunch defenders of nationalism. So on and so forth. Were any of these really minority opinions, or was it that they were hot-topic issues at the time that divided voting citizens along party lines?

  • by jncfhnb on 12/29/24, 7:41 PM

    [flagged]