by atomic128 on 12/10/24, 9:19 PM with 655 comments
by rgovostes on 12/10/24, 10:11 PM
Isn't there basically Google/Waymo and then, seemingly much further behind, Tesla Cybertaxi, Amazon/Zoox, and Uber/Yandex? Cruise allegedly has one of the most sophisticated autonomous driving platforms, and GM's Super Cruise (if they share any tech) is comparable to Tesla FSD. Strange that they would bow out.
Small anecdote: I visited a GM dealership this week and the salesperson told me Super Cruise was not enabled for test drives. The excuse was pretty weak, like the dealership would have to pay for the service or something. GM might have the technology but they are completely bungling the strategy.
Ford just lowered the cost of its BlueCruise subscription by 1/3rd. In an earnings call eight months prior they remarked they made a 70% margin on the service. It seems like drivers did not find the feature compelling and were not renewing. Interest in autonomous driving appears to be cooling across the board.
by atomic128 on 12/10/24, 9:21 PM
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33554679
Lidar obstacle detection algorithm from a Git repo leaked onto Tor
This is a drivable region mapping (obstacle detection) algorithm found in what appears to be a git repo leaked from an autonomous vehicle company in 2017. The repo was available through one or more Tor hidden services for several years.
The lidar code appears to be written for the Velodyne HDL-32E. It operates in a series of stages, each stage refining the output of the previous stage. This algorithm is in the second stage. It is the primary obstacle detection method, with the other methods making only small improvements.
The leaked code uses a column-major matrix of points and it explicitly handles NaNs (the no-return points). We've rewritten it to use a much more cache-efficient row-major matrix layout and a conditional that will ignore the NaN points without explicit testing.
This is an amazingly effective method of obstacle detection, considering its simplicity.
by standardUser on 12/10/24, 10:51 PM
by rmason on 12/10/24, 11:38 PM
Wonder if they'd sell Cruise back to the founders for say a buck? Sure Cruise could then cut a deal with another auto maker. Maybe even get financing from one?
by burningChrome on 12/11/24, 6:27 AM
Dec 4th, 2024
GM braces for a $5 billion hit as it fights to keep up in China’s intensifying EV price war
SAIC-GM revealed in a regulatory filing on Wednesday (via The New York Times) that it expects to write down between $2.6 billion and $2.9 billion in the fourth quarter. The automaker is also expecting another $2.7 billion in restructuring expenses.
https://electrek.co/2024/12/04/gm-faces-5-billion-hit-ev-bat...
by ra7 on 12/10/24, 10:37 PM
Now they've gone back to what I think GM's original plan was for acquiring Cruise — using their tech for passenger cars. Selling cars is GM's bread and butter. This wasn't going to end any other way.
by paxys on 12/11/24, 3:51 AM
My thoughts today are the same as they were back then. Self driving will only be solved city by city and street by street. Local governments will need to create dedicated closed-off autonomous lanes with sensors. Auto manufacturers will need to abide by a common standard to talk to local infrastructure and to each other.
Instead we chose to solve the problem in the most complex and inefficient way possible, and are now seeing the results.
by nojvek on 12/11/24, 8:03 AM
That being said it’s usual in US for CEOs to be rewarded in short time with stock raises when they cut costs.
Innovation is not a game for the light hearted.
Google is playing that game with Waymo and ploughing billions every year. GM doesn’t have the same risk bearing culture.
by porphyra on 12/11/24, 4:24 AM
by yard2010 on 12/11/24, 9:17 AM
Where is the money? I don't mean to be as snarky as Cruise founder, but how can you burn that amount of money and not show results?
by eappleby on 12/10/24, 11:34 PM
by aanet on 12/10/24, 10:25 PM
QUOTE: Cruise and GM’s technical teams will be combined into a single effort focused on developing autonomous technology to offer in future models sold by GM, according to a statement Tuesday. GM said it will no longer fund robotaxi development work “given the considerable time and resources that would be needed to scale the business, along with an increasingly competitive robotaxi market.”
It’s a big retrench for GM and Cruise, which survived a shakeout among autonomous-driving companies and restarted operations after one of its cars dragged a pedestrian last year. ...
The move has significant implications for GM. Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra wanted to transform the automaker into a transportation technology company and double GM’s revenue by 2030 in part by generating $50 billion from Cruise. Without a robotaxi business to bring in fares, that goal looks remote. /QUOTE
The business of robotaxis has always been a bit suspect, given the unit economics of running 1000s of taxis, each with ~$100K of equipment (even as the COGS were coming down each generation).
My 2c: the only reason Waymo is succeeding (so far) is that its parent Alphabet has deeep pockets, it has a a 6th gen (?) technology of its AV driver, and they already exited the other AV trucking segment... implying they need to succeed in robotaxis, so it's all hands on deck. It also helps that they have, so far, NOT blundered their way (=> a significant pedestrian collision) the way Uber ATG did or Cruise did.
This is a loong game to win, far longer than anything the tech bros have promised their their investors... We are still in the initial innings
by alkonaut on 12/11/24, 8:20 AM
It felt like there was a lot of buzz around it a while back but then it only happened in a couple of cities which were just US cities with favorable climate. Did it ever move beyond that? You'd think that if the market is really competitive, then operators would bring it to cities where it doesn't exist, rather than just all competing in the same small handful of cities?
by xyst on 12/11/24, 12:10 AM
by mathattack on 12/11/24, 7:43 AM
Their last great innovation was Saturn, and they killed that too.
by someonehere on 12/11/24, 6:11 AM
Waymo has been a little less expensive than Uber/Lyft for me. I just saw a Zoox autonomous vehicle today. That weird looking box with no drivers seat.
by rangestransform on 12/13/24, 2:45 AM
by majestik on 12/11/24, 4:06 AM
by AbrahamParangi on 12/11/24, 2:36 AM
by cyrux004 on 12/10/24, 10:23 PM
https://blog.comma.ai/a-100x-investment-part-1/ https://blog.comma.ai/a-100x-investment-part-2/
by thr3000 on 12/11/24, 12:26 AM
Cruise cars were way more numerous around SF, although the service was worse than Waymo's. That stupid October 2023 accident really snowballed, and it wasn't even their (primary) fault.
by rjtc on 12/11/24, 8:36 AM
where is YC's top tech success now?
Shows that most yc companies are clownshoes who pale in comparison to the tech chops of actual tech companies
by bfrog on 12/10/24, 11:07 PM
by leesec on 12/11/24, 3:30 PM
by gitfan86 on 12/11/24, 12:20 PM
Lots of people are ignoring this because of politics.
by Filligree on 12/11/24, 2:09 AM
It would, inevitably, lead to more cars in cities. Probably faster cars. Both are the opposite of what we need; it isn't just about safety.
by idunnoman1222 on 12/11/24, 2:44 AM