from Hacker News

New research says "blue zones" can be explained by flawed data

by cpncrunch on 10/4/24, 6:32 AM with 178 comments

• by cs702 on 10/4/24, 11:22 AM

  Paper:

  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1

  Abstract:

  > The observation of individuals attaining remarkable ages, and their concentration into geographic sub-regions or ‘blue zones’, has generated considerable scientific interest. Proposed drivers of remarkable longevity include high vegetable intake, strong social connections, and genetic markers. Here, we reveal new predictors of remarkable longevity and ‘supercentenarian’ status. In the United States, supercentenarian status is predicted by the absence of vital registration. The state-specific introduction of birth certificates is associated with a 69-82% fall in the number of supercentenarian records. In Italy, which has more uniform vital registration, remarkable longevity is instead predicted by low per capita incomes and a short life expectancy. Finally, the designated ‘blue zones’ of Sardinia, Okinawa, and Ikaria corresponded to regions with low incomes, low literacy, high crime rate and short life expectancy relative to their national average. As such, relative poverty and short lifespan constitute unexpected predictors of centenarian and supercentenarian status, and support a primary role of fraud and error in generating remarkable human age records.

  Nice work. It just won a 2024 Ig Nobel Prize. Well-deserved, I'd say:

  https://improbable.com/ig/winners/#ig2024

• by brushfoot on 10/4/24, 10:57 AM

  This doesn't really address Loma Linda, California, the Adventist blue zone.

  The researcher's criticism of Loma Linda isn't that people don't live longer there; it's that Adventist Health purchased Dan Buettner's marketing company Blue Zones LLC in 2020.

  Adventists are teetotalers, so he questions why they'd want to be associated with the Blue Zones guideline of drinking "every day at twice the NHS heavy drinking guidelines."

  Which is a fair question -- but it doesn't have anything to do with whether Loma Linda is an area with greater longevity.

• by Rocka24 on 10/4/24, 7:57 PM

  Absolutely incredible.

  I've seen a number of byproducts of the "Blue Zone trend" namely in youtube videos and dinner party conversations from so called health experts. The creator of Blue Zones (Dan Buettner) does seem to profit off of this as well, one quick look at the website shows a Blue Zone cooking course sale and other marketing schemes that could trap the unwary. https://www.bluezones.com/about/history/

  I'm not questioning whether or not the intent was malicious but he does stand to gain quite a lot. Happy to see this being exposed. In a semi related sense I highly recommend checking out Bryan Johnson's (founder of Braintree Venmo) Blueprint protocol, I've been following his work for a number of years now and it is scientifically backed although the for profit arm of his initiative just reared its (ugly?) head recently with him selling supplements and dietary goods that are vetted by his agency.

  https://protocol.bryanjohnson.com/

• by Aerroon on 10/4/24, 1:09 PM

  What always seemed questionable to me about Blue Zones is how they account for unnatural causes of death. A decade ago centenarians would've had to live through two world wars and the devastation and famine they caused. How do you compare a population that went through that to a population that didn't?

• by CareerAdvice01 on 10/4/24, 11:55 AM

  I come from one of these blue zones on the southern coast of Europe. That low income low literacy people live longer, provided they have good genetics seems plausible to me. These people tend to lead a semi-agrarian life and remain active well into their 80s. Their more educated higher income counterparts will probably have spent their life being sedentary and their retirement in a coffee shop indulging themselves. If food plays a role, it's only insofar as them being less indulgent. Otherwise I believe the obsession on diet is only because it is one factor that is relatively easy for people to change. Genetics plays a huge role, because if your body betrays you early on, you won't be able to remain active and focused on life in your later years. Climate probably also plays a role because again, you need good climate to remain active all year round. So does family. Seeing your family everyday keeps you planted in life. Healthcare might also play a role. Our healthcare is much more caring than the one in the northern European states.

  They should make a study focusing on northern European retirees who decide to live here on the coast. We have quite a few of those and I wonder whether they tend to live longer compared to their counterparts back home.

  The allegation that its simply fraud is ridiculous. If someone in the village dies, the whole village would know before sunset, and pretty much nobody dies at home anyway. And what about inheritance? Or paying rent? No, that's completely ridiculous. Not to mention that pretty much everyone is highly religious around those parts and not giving your relatives a proper Catholic burial is one of the worst things you could do. Not even a staunch atheist would stoop that low.

• by dghughes on 10/4/24, 11:09 AM

  My guess is blue zones are countries that have good social programs and medical systems. Also helpful are regions where the environment isn't going to kill you.

• by closetkantian on 10/4/24, 8:40 AM

  So what are the real Blue Zones if there are any? Where do people actually live the longest in other words?

• by seydor on 10/4/24, 1:28 PM

  Why hasn't the Ignoble Paper been published somewhere? Note that it was first drafted in 2019

• by FollowingTheDao on 10/4/24, 11:08 AM

  The whole Blue Zone thing cracks me up. They think everyone will live longer on a plant based diet? Tell that to the Inuit and Sami who have genetically adapted after generations of eating very few, if any, plants.

  If they Blue Zones do exists, they exist because people are eating their traditional genetic diet.

  And if they eat plants, what plants? Should someone of Irish decent eat wheat even though they are more likely to have Celiac?

  I have Sami heritage. I was also a Vegan at one time. A healthy Vegan. The plant based diet was literally killing me with hyperglycemia and immune issues. These people who think there is one true diet are dangerous adn do not know the first thing about nutritional genetics.

• by mywacaday on 10/4/24, 2:43 PM

  Interview with the author from an Irish national radio station here: https://www.goloudplayer.com/episodes/what-are-blue-zones-an...

  Starts at 1:10, also the radio slot is a light hearted one, not serious scientific discussion.

• by poulsbohemian on 10/4/24, 8:07 PM

  I live in a community that was part of the Blue Zones project, that has cultural ties to one of the original Blue Zones geographies. While I think there is something to the general idea - eat well, limit stress, have a sense of community, keep moving physically - it was always clear that there was a lot of pseudoscience going on. The videos put out by the project in particular (I think maybe it was a Netflix program for a while?) had a lot of unsubstantiated but authoritative sounding statements. Regardless, I felt like the overall message was positive and got people thinking about how they were living. That said, there was a merchandise angle on it, and thinking back there are ideas we've talked about as a community that Blue Zones could have stewarded - but they would have been outside their established game plan.

• by throwawaymaths on 10/5/24, 2:23 AM

  Anecdata, but the plural of anecdote is data:

  If you go to Hawaii where there are japanese-style graves with YOB and YOD inscribed, the centenarians all seem to have Okinawan names (and there are quite a few).

• by lucidguppy on 10/5/24, 2:41 PM

  Yay that there's research into adding nuance to results.

  Science should sharpen science.

  Deep down we know how we should eat and live. Society and the economy, though has different plans.

• by eadmund on 10/4/24, 12:42 PM

  > drinking 1-2 glasses of wine per day

  > the astounding thing is that one of the guidelines is that you should drink every day at twice the NHS heavy drinking guidelines. That is a recipe for alcoholism.

  Say what? The article implies that 1 glass of wine every day or two (i.e., half of 1–2 per day) is heavy. That seems frankly insane to me.

• by Flatcircle on 10/4/24, 8:29 PM

  Been saying this for years. It's so obvious.

• by fire_lake on 10/4/24, 9:30 AM

  Longevity is a poor metric anyway - we need to emphasize quality * years

• by stonethrowaway on 10/4/24, 2:19 PM

  Technically speaking (the best kind of speaking) you didn’t need new research to conclude this. All you had to do was ask “is this a pop science book?” and “will I hear about it at my next family gathering from the one person who thinks of themselves as qualified on subject matter but is in fact the furthest from the truth?”

  If you answer yes to both, you may safely discard the material as simply a means for the author to advance their career.

  Other greatest hits from this genre: Grit, Deep Work, Why We Sleep, Thinking Fast and Slow, How Not to Die.