by pmzy on 8/10/24, 9:06 AM with 183 comments
by i80and on 8/12/24, 2:08 PM
> Much to my surprise, astrologers had very low agreement with each other on the chart for each person. If astrologers picked charts at random, they would agree with each other 20% of the time. In our study, even the most experienced astrologers only agreed 28% of the time.
by christiangenco on 8/12/24, 2:08 PM
We'd gotten into a discussion about how neither of us believe the explanation that astrology gives for how it works (that the position of the planets at the time of your birth influence your personality) but my sister thought a person's star sign might be a proxy for being born in a particular season which could reasonably affect someone's personality (ex: perhaps babies born in the winter share personality traits distinct from babies born in the summer).
She also thought that given a list of people and descriptions of personality traits of star signs she could match them with better-than-chance accuracy.
We made a list of ~10 people that she knew personally. I looked up their star signs and found a description of all 12 signs from an authoritative-looking astrology site. For each of the 10 people I gave her a choice of their actual star sign and two randomly picked star signs (determined and shuffled by an RNG). Random guessing would predict she'd have a 1/3rd chance of getting any individual person correct. She predicted she'd get ~7/10 correct.
She got exactly 3/10.
by DamnInteresting on 8/12/24, 2:53 PM
In the early 20th century, Einstein came along with his Theory of General Relativity, and with these equations he demonstrated that the sun's gravity was bending spacetime in a way that perfectly accounted for Mercury's wobble. Vulcan was therefore found to be a myth, nonexistent.[1]
Nevertheless, many astrologers still feature Vulcan in their horoscopes even today, over a century later.[2] The inclusion of an entirely fictional heavenly body seems to undermine any other conclusions drawn from planetary positions.
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(hypothetical_planet)
by mihaic on 8/12/24, 2:07 PM
Reinterpreted, if you're an Aquarius, you're 50% more likely than an Aries to get into the NHL[1]. So, I guess I do sometimes believe in astrology, it's just very rarely better than random.
[1] https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/birth-month-totals/nhl-playe...
by staminade on 8/12/24, 1:54 PM
by hermannj314 on 8/12/24, 2:40 PM
As long as I am reasonable in what decisions I give to the altar of Gamblor, I find belief in him a net good for my life even though I realize no study would prove he has actual predictive abilities, it doesn't mean belief in him isn't a net positive.
What's wrong with superstitions, belief in Santa Claus, or finding wisdom in the beauty of the stars? We are all just trying to get through life in a way that works for us.
by tzs on 8/12/24, 10:45 PM
This was in the mid '70s and I was not able to find anything in my county library that actually told how astrologers find planetary positions, so nothing ever came of it.
I had a similar idea 20 years later when I took a break from programming to go to law school. Some thing in a couple of my tax law classes were unclear to me and I really wanted to see how they were actually applied. I went to the university bookstore and found the section with textbooks for the university's business school and bought the textbook for their taxes for accountants class. After reading the examples and explanations there I then found the corresponding material in my law texts much more approachable.
by CuriouslyC on 8/12/24, 2:18 PM
To be fair though, most doctors don't perform much better than these astrologers in my experience, and that's with billions of dollars in research, a quarter of a million dollar education and years of rigorous training. It turns out most people are incompetent and our science is worse than we think in a lot of cases.
by boesboes on 8/12/24, 2:12 PM
Most people don't believe tarot cards are really some magical thing, it's just an interactive and creative way to get some random inspirational qoutes or text. It's either fitting and viewed a true, or not fitting and simply disregarded. I know it's all bs, but that doesn't mean it cannot be entertaining.
by Euphorbium on 8/10/24, 9:31 AM
by Jean-Papoulos on 8/12/24, 2:04 PM
by rich_sasha on 8/12/24, 5:14 PM
If you believe in astrology, you probably also believe in some unfalsifiable statements about it and have reasons to not trust studies like this.
It's like trying to convince flat earthers using General Relativity. If you believe the earth is round, you don't need GR, and if you don't, it doesn't help.
So it goes back to what you believe, and the statistics is clever decoration.
by satisfice on 8/10/24, 11:12 AM
by tim333 on 8/12/24, 3:02 PM
In terms of predicting the future, no. But probably most people do it to feel better about their lives. It may work from that point of view. You could compare it to finding a religion or seeing a shrink.
by giraffe_lady on 8/12/24, 2:07 PM
by _heimdall on 8/12/24, 2:07 PM
Now can we get on with comments actually diving deeper into the actual study in the OP?
by tomek_ycomb on 8/12/24, 2:13 PM
Remember when we learned about how bone divination helped hunter gathers search random areas and not be stuck with the bias of hunting where you previously hunted too much?
Kind of related. But, anyway, what I'm trying to say. I also feel like it's a snake oil scam and impossibly hard to avoid dishonesty at a random sample of astrologists.
My random card reader really flipped my head around when they promised me my reading without knowing my question or answers. They asked me how I felt about my questions and some considerations I could take about the answer and outcome, based on my cards. They said it was a process to navigate your thoughts, not for future telling. And I was impressed enough at this reframing to want to try and convince a few other HN nerds to consider this point as well. Be upset about the scammers but don't miss the possibility there can be a nugget of value and process outside of what you're expecting. There tend to be reasons why people continue doing things across cultures and time (there's something they get value out of in it, usually)
by spacebacon on 8/12/24, 3:12 PM
by thunderbong on 8/10/24, 12:05 PM
https://programs.clearerthinking.org/astrology_challenge.htm...
by muscomposter on 8/12/24, 2:17 PM
so I’m blaming the homogenity of school experience as a way to explain away the personality similarities between people sharing a “zodiac sign” i.e. born around the same time of the year
but I do hope I got shadowbanned already
by usgroup on 8/12/24, 2:53 PM
Generally speaking I suspect it will be difficult to falsify astrology, but more importantly the onus is on the astrologer to prove their ability rather than for others to disprove it.
by aussieguy1234 on 8/12/24, 2:17 PM
by LadyCailin on 8/12/24, 2:00 PM
by AndrewKemendo on 8/12/24, 2:01 PM
Glad we have something to point to finally as a reference
by Ekaros on 8/12/24, 2:22 PM
by AnonC on 8/12/24, 2:00 PM
by LoKSET on 8/12/24, 1:56 PM
by jonwiseman on 8/12/24, 2:29 PM
(Not sure if this is formatted correctly, feel free to comment if you'd do these stats differently)
from scipy.stats import binomtest
# stats: {experience_level: (rate, num_in_group)}
stats = {
"lvl1": (20.5, 156),
"lvl2": (22.2, 66),
"lvl3": (23.3, 50),
"lvl4": (21.2, 39),
"lvl5": (20.8, 12),
"lvl6": (28.3, 5),
}
for lvl, (rate, num) in stats.items():
num_tests = num * (num - 1)
res = binomtest(int(rate * num_tests * 0.01), num_tests, 0.2, alternative="greater")
# with multiple comparison correction with bonferroni
print(f"{lvl}: p-value = {res.pvalue:.4f} {'*' if res.pvalue < 0.05 / 6 else ''}")
print('* indicates p-value is < 0.05 after bonferroni correction')
"""
lvl1: p-value = 0.0276
lvl2: p-value = 0.0002 *
lvl3: p-value = 0.0000 *
lvl4: p-value = 0.1337
lvl5: p-value = 0.4826
lvl6: p-value = 0.3704
* indicates p-value is < 0.05 after bonferroni correction
"""
by Eumenes on 8/12/24, 2:01 PM
by nurettin on 8/10/24, 9:26 AM
by yoavm on 8/10/24, 9:24 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
by cdumler on 8/12/24, 4:32 PM
She uses astrology not in any predictive manor but as a qualitative evaluation. All of the signs have descriptions and ways to think about the character. For instance, Cancers tend to keep people out because the only thing that protects them from their soft, emotional insides is their shell. This makes them also tend to avoid direct conflict, which makes them move in sideways directions. However, if they interact, they don't have much more than claws, so they may pinch without knowing it. They also tend to find their place to bury and if kept happy will tend to stay where they are. If not, they tend to move on without creating a huge issue out it.
I'm not going to suggest in any shape or form that A) all people born Cancers behave this way or B) planets have anything to do with causing this. What I am saying is: if you see someone acting with these traits, you can decide that maybe the reason why is because they're concerned about being hurt. I've learned to have a bit less judgement and a bit more grace in people now. Maybe people just have a difference view of priorities and not all motivations are spoken:
* Aries - Brash, bold, and like taking the lead in situations. Also tend to be naïve and more morally black-and-white.
* Taurus - Stubborn but reliable. Tend to value only what they find for themselves, ie "you can't lead a horse to water..".
* Gemini - Appear as twins, because something is definitely _the best way_ until the next thing is _best way_. They're not flighty, just not that concerned with opportunity costs.
* Cancer - Emotional and nurturing, doesn't want to be crushed. Tend stay where they are unless moved by discomfort, but won't tell you.
* Leo - Confident, charismatic, and is concerned about accomplishments and family. Very loud more than anything else and can be pacified by stroking their mane.
* Virgo - Detail-oriented and practical. Often perfectionists because they are comfortable with repeated process. Get uncomfortable unknowns, which makes them not want to complete projects.
* Libra - Diplomatic and charming, value balance and harmony, but judge everything even if inappropriate.
* Scorpio - Intense, passionate, but reserved. Often so reserved that people wonder if they are going to get stabbed when all the Scorpio is doing is being quiet on their rock in the sun and ignoring everyone.This is now stuff I think about before assigning malice to someone's actions or just brushing someone off who isn't thinking like me.
by EPWN3D on 8/11/24, 5:34 PM
by toss1 on 8/12/24, 2:15 PM
Astrologers can leave just enough ambiguity in their statements so it seems definite but could be interpreted either way, and when actual events happen later on, confirmation bias (often accompanied with a desire to believe and be proven right) kicks in and "confirms" the result. Rinse, repeat, ad infinitum.
To the degree it seems to provide a benefit by giving people the feeling that the chaotic world is explainable, perhaps it is a good thing, far less good than science and far better than flat-earth/Qanon style conspiracy theory worldviews.
Science is a positive good, astrology somewhat harmless (aside from being wasteful & distracting from real science), and the flat-earth/Qanon conspiracy worldviews actively harmful. So, perhaps if astrology can be leveraged to pull people away from the conspiracy worldviews, it could be good? Although, if anything, the motion seems to be in the other direction.
by poulpy123 on 8/10/24, 9:23 AM
by freitzkriesler2 on 8/12/24, 2:26 PM
As such, I know a fair amount of astrology from a Greco Roman perspective and by extension all the way up to medieval astrology. Yeah plz I find it fascinating.
With that said, the vast majority of western astrology is done using new age psychological nonsense that was literally made up by hippies during the 60s. It is completely divorced from the tradition that was developed and refined from the Chaldeans (aka Babylonians), Greeks, Arabs, and Europeans and as such doesn't make any sense against the system that was developed and refined over at least a thousand years.
A good astrologer won't say with precision that X is going to happen (like you will meet the love of your life or pass the test), they'll give their predictions in archetypes and give a range of outcomes that fall under those archetypes.
Take for example the meaning of the 9th house, the 9th house represents far away travel, religion, higher education, and publishing. These are all desperate subjects from one another and need to be considered in a predictoon against the backdrop of your life.
Does it work? It's a bit like the weather, I can say this range of things under this archetype will happen on X date at X time. That's pretty much it.
If you're interested in the subject, the best primer book I can recommend is the study office and fortune by Chris Brennan which can be found on Amazon in print and ebook format. It's written as a college level text with citations and will give you the historical background and practical foundations to understand the classical philosophy that underpins the basis of the tradition.
Anywho, I expect a good roasting and some down d00ts for my interest in t is subject.
by prewett on 8/12/24, 4:05 PM
by razodactyl on 8/12/24, 2:03 PM
by Mathnerd314 on 8/12/24, 1:46 PM
by swayvil on 8/12/24, 2:13 PM