by olooney on 6/25/24, 8:51 PM with 45 comments
by dlevine on 6/26/24, 1:53 AM
Now that Moore's Law has leveled off, I do wonder what will keep the exponential increase going. For example, LLMs are increasing exponentially in size each generation, but that also involves an exponential increase in cost, and will only be sustainable up to a certain point.
by tim333 on 6/26/24, 11:18 AM
by simonblack on 6/25/24, 9:28 PM
It won't hurt you to dream though. It might keep you off the streets.
by olooney on 6/25/24, 8:51 PM
by Log_out_ on 6/26/24, 5:05 AM
by seniortaco on 6/26/24, 1:44 AM
by stephc_int13 on 6/26/24, 2:06 AM
The concept of a singularity - a point of rapid, transformative change beyond which predictions become unreliable - is inherently challenging to analyze. However, examining historical examples of singularity-like events can provide valuable insights.
- The Big Bang: Often regarded as the ultimate singularity, this event marked the birth of our universe and the beginning of space, time, and matter as we understand them.
- The emergence of organic life: The transition from inorganic matter to self-replicating, complex organisms represents another fundamental shift in the nature of our world.
- The evolution of human consciousness: The development of our species, with its unprecedented cognitive abilities and capacity for abstract thought, can be seen as a singularity in the progression of life on Earth.
These examples share a common characteristic: while their impacts are immeasurably significant, the full realization of their consequences unfolds over vast periods of time. The Big Bang occurred approximately 13.8 billion years ago, yet the universe continues to evolve.
Life on Earth emerged roughly 3.5 billion years ago, with complex multicellular organisms appearing much later.
Human beings have existed for a mere fraction of that time, yet our impact on the planet is still unfolding.
Drawing parallels to these historical singularities, it's reasonable to infer that even if a technological singularity were to occur within the next few decades, its effects would likely manifest gradually rather than instantaneously.
The idea that such an event would fundamentally alter every aspect of our existence "in the blink of an eye" may be an oversimplification.
Consider, for example, the Industrial Revolution. While it dramatically transformed society, economy, and technology, these changes occurred over decades and centuries, not overnight.
Similarly, the ongoing Digital Revolution has been reshaping our world for several decades, with its full impact still unfolding.