from Hacker News

There is a 50-50 chance AI will get more intelligent than humans

by kukx on 6/16/24, 8:24 PM with 23 comments

• by coldtea on 6/16/24, 8:41 PM

  Yes, 50-50 in the old joke sense of "it will either happen or not happen".

• by Justsignedup on 6/16/24, 9:51 PM

  For me, I'm not worried about artificial beings being smarter than us being able to reason about things better.

  I am far far far more worried what a corporation would do. Look at the TikTok algorithm and how good it is at hijacking our thought process. Do I need to fear it in and of itself? No. I fear the company using it to drive behaviors a certain way because it is profitable.

  I think Westworld had a great version of this. They create a super intelligent computer, and they could have just as easily asked it to solve climate change as to manipulate stocks. And ultimately the machine wasn't after anything, just working on a directive. And when asked to shut down, it did. (season 3)

  Thats the point here, its all about who gets to direct it, and if it is Elon Musk, I fear for our future.

• by chmaynard on 6/16/24, 10:01 PM

  Astonishing! I assumed it was only 49.5-50.5 max.

• by WheelsAtLarge on 6/16/24, 8:44 PM

  I can see a situation where multiple AI systems will be connected to simulate human intelligence so you can ask it any question and it will have an answer. It will also be able to outline a whole project into a plan that people can follow. In that sense, it will be smarter. That's a 100% chance. It's a way to easily access the world's knowledge. Search engines are on their way out. Google search will eventually be a relic.

  But will it be AGI? No. That's a close to 0% chance, not 0 but close in the next 20 years.

• by hcrean on 6/16/24, 8:40 PM

  Humanity is possibly racing to it's own destruction by making a buck along the way.

  Humanity is possibly about to breed home appliances that pathfind our way to greater knowledge than we could ever have gotten to on our own.

  AI might hit a wall and not progress for many years. Only time will tell...

• by RecycledEle on 6/16/24, 10:49 PM

  The denial is strong.

  Find anyone, anywhere, who can answer as broad of a range of questions, as quickly, as well, as ChatGPT does.

  No human can match any one of those 3 dimensions of performance.

  AI won several years ago.

• by mytailorisrich on 6/16/24, 9:06 PM

  This leaves out the key bit: "in the next 20 years".

  I think that if we leave out any deadlines then the probability is 100%.

• by Havoc on 6/16/24, 11:18 PM

  Surely the question is when not if?

• by soist on 6/16/24, 9:31 PM

  Why isn't it 100%?

• by theemachinist on 6/17/24, 3:54 AM

  Insightful.