from Hacker News

Feasibility of SpaceX's human exploration Mars mission scenario

by arthurdenture on 5/26/24, 4:44 AM with 6 comments

  • by imtringued on 5/26/24, 8:08 PM

    The need for ISRU for takeoff makes any crewed Mars mission that isn't just a copy of the lunar gateway a far off dream. For some reason people think the ability to stuff 100 people like sardines into Starship matters when in reality there is absolutely nothing waiting for you on Mars. There is no infrastructure and SpaceX is not focusing on anything remotely relevant to Mars colonization. They are not building rovers, power plants or ISRU demonstrators to at least prove that it works at small scales.

    Let me tell you something. People are still planning on what should be done on the moon. There is this study called LunA-10 [0] and it is aiming at 2034. Yes, anything on the moon is a decade away and Mars is even further away since Elon isn't working on it.

    [0] https://lsic.jhuapl.edu/uploadedDocs/meetings/docs/2441-DIST...

  • by avmich on 5/26/24, 11:20 PM

    It's hard to check the calculations used, but couple of items - structural (40 t) and propulsion (38 t) - aren't clear. If some reductions are possible in these areas, they could save up to 70-80 t, bringing required payload to 120-130 t, which is close to what Starship is planned to have.

    In other words, it's good to have an analysis; it would also be good to clarify existing questions to the analysis.

  • by panick21_ on 5/26/24, 11:46 AM

    By far the most useful thing for governments to do would be to work on proper nuclear power that can be sent on a Starship.

    I think the chemical plant and the water gathering is something that SpaceX can build. Even at scale.

    Sadly Musk is a believer in solar instead of nuclear power. I simply don't believe solar power is reasonable on Mars.

  • by ein0p on 5/26/24, 7:53 AM

    I mean, yeah, it is “beyond the current state of the art”. That’s the whole point of the thing. Landing rockets on a ship was that too, and yet here we are - the state of the art changed. One thing I heard from people who work there: Musk is super serious about this, so if a thing is not usable in the Mars project - it doesn’t get done. Which tells me that the usual Muskian thing will happen: it’ll take 2-3x as long as he claims, but it will ultimately be successful