from Hacker News

Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

by woofcat on 3/27/24, 11:17 AM with 96 comments

by karaterobot on 3/27/24, 1:26 PM
The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to draw an equivalence between the 2020s and the 1920s. Otherwise, this sounds a little like a kind of numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other.
by 1970-01-01 on 3/27/24, 1:28 PM
Selling everything in Q2 2029 isn't even bad investment advice if you consider all the other very bad investment advice out there!
by forgotmyinfo on 3/27/24, 1:40 PM
Probably! It's just unfortunate that we don't have any sort of New Deal, good jazz clubs, or Art Deco to make it suck less.
by francisofascii on 3/27/24, 1:18 PM
> Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?
Yes, the post Flu/Covid effect, insane asset prices, vacations, etc. all line up. Shiller PE is at 34, which is higher than in 1929. I am somewhat optimistic we can experience a softer landing than The Great Depression. The Fed hinting a lower rates might be an indication of them understanding the risks of a crash. The problem is due to the systemic nature of the system, a boom can turn into a bust rather quickly.
by ddorian43 on 3/27/24, 1:13 PM
Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.
by mmphosis on 3/27/24, 3:45 PM
No, I don't think nice round numbers like 20 or 100 years show a pattern. I like to think more in terms of generations: 15 to 30 years. I can't predict the future. Please take my 30 year time-line idea as numerology where similarly numbered years must resemble each other. It's broken into a decade each of boom-bust-war:
```
  1890 boom "Klondike Gold Rush"
  1900 bust "Panic of 1901"
  1910 war WW1
  1920 boom "Roaring"
  1930 bust "Great Depression"
  1940 war WW2
  1950 boom "Golden Age" [1]
  1960 bust [2]
  1970 war Viet Nam
  1980 boom "Long" [3]
  1990 bust [4] [5]
  2000 war Afghanistan, Iraq
  2010 boom [6]
  2020 bust [7]
  2030 war [8]
```
Of course, there are booms, busts and wars occurring at anytime. And some parts of the world might feel like they are in the future and some in the past.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_econ... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1960%E2%80%931961 [3] https://www.hoover.org/research/ten-causes-reagan-boom-1982-... [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1990s_recession_in_the_U... [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble [6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/17/obamas-20... [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-1... [8] https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/...
by 1vuio0pswjnm7 on 3/28/24, 6:08 AM
Strangely no mention of corruption. It led to new laws and reforms, all for the better.
by calebm on 3/28/24, 12:09 AM
I always thought it'd be romantic to live in the roaring 20's. Cheers!
by Bluecobra on 3/27/24, 1:42 PM
One parallel that I noticed is how prevalent these easy installment plans are now (Zip, AfterPay, etc) and they don’t require a credit check. People are even using them to buy basic necessities like groceries at Walmart which seems a bit concerning.
by derelicta on 3/27/24, 3:10 PM
> Housing prices are at all-time highs.
and so is homelessness. Great. Wonderful.
by makerdiety on 3/27/24, 11:29 AM
> Consumer sentiment doesn’t exactly line up with a roaring 20s mentality because people hate inflation and higher interest rates. But you have to watch what people do, not what they say.
> People are spending money on food, travel, clothes and technology.
Slaves don't have a choice but to spend their fiat money in a low interest rate world whose present condition of low interest rates exists only because this is the last exercise rep the government can push out before reality and nature come in to remove all the artificial economics implementations. In simple words, real capitalism has not yet been tried and a great reset away from stupidity and liberal-democratic welfare is coming.
Malthus wins in the end, no matter how much you try to delay the inevitable.