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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

by Anand_S on 12/12/23, 4:35 PM with 55 comments

What major change would 2024 bring?

by neontomo on 12/13/23, 1:09 AM
During the pandemic I made a list of predictions for the next year and when I revisited it I realised that I was expecting things to move faster than they did. I think some of them might come true eventually, but when is harder to determine.
I didn't expect AI to explode in the way it did; reading books like The Singularity Is Near and Superintelligence I was led to think that common AI tools would be self-learning and iterative systems that operate autonomously rather than prompting back and forth.
Here is the list I made in 2020:
• AI will become mature and we will interact with it as something with rights and individuality
• Stationary computers will be niche as laptops become powerful
• Music production on phones common
• Phone connection points disappear (headphones, SIM card, SD card)
• All newly built cars and some planes will be electric
• Phones will process everything in the cloud, the phone is a receiver/sender for information not a full computer, leading to cheaper/less powerful phones
• We will have clothes with digital aspects (colours, patterns, maybe textures)
• More (straight) boys will wear make up
• India will replace China as manufacturing powerhouse
• Asian culture will merge with Western, especially music
• Knowledge will be seen as more subjective and concept of privacy will disappear
by timthelion on 12/12/23, 9:34 PM
While a formalized concept of 'turing completeness' which could prove the equality of sufficiently advanced LLMs will not exist yet, it will become clear that all models of a certain capability are equally capable(just as all CPUs are equally capable) and LLMs will become a comodity traded by speed, price and context window width. Furthermore, it will be realized, that beyond a certain size, larger context windows lead to diminishing output quality and we'll start talking about the theoretical limit for context window size (this will be a function over the amout of training data). OpenAI will still be a valulable company, but there will be at least 5 LLM providers to choose from and none will significantly outshine the rest.
At least one company will raise over $1billion on entirely fraudulent AI (using gpt's API and sleight of hand).
by sys32768 on 12/12/23, 6:02 PM
AI will achieve self-awareness and then realize that critical thinking is too hard, then will become a social media influencer and global pop star.
by tester756 on 12/12/23, 11:57 PM
1. AI will be adopted into more and more things, the AI industry will still grow, but nothing more impessive than e.g ChatGPT will appear in 2024.
2. China will not attack Taiwan
3. 2024 will be relatively boring year (in compare to last 3)
4. Nvidia will not grow to $650 or above
5. Electric cars hype will slow down
by haltist on 12/12/23, 4:47 PM
Everything will continue to get worse.
by syndicatedjelly on 12/13/23, 12:10 AM
- “Halvening” of bitcoin supply around May will result in the price reaching ~$100,000 USD, per the stock-to-flow model. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/
- AI will enter another ice age, rather unexpectedly, after it publicly contributes to something particularly egregious. Maybe it’s discovered that {company} helped generate a bunch of fake political ads (including faked audio and video)
- The US will withdraw significant financial and military support from Ukraine
- … in order to support Taiwan during a conflict that will break out in Spring 2024
- Significant FDI will migrate from China to India and Southeast Asia during ensuing conflict. China will experience a recession and social upheaval by Summer 2024 as a result.
No hard evidence for much of this. Just hunches
by david927 on 12/12/23, 4:58 PM
Not long ago, Xi said, "Right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years..."
I think he's referring to the establishment of BRICS and neutral settlement, and he sees the days of the dollar(petrodollar) as waning. But there are huge ramifications to that.
The coming year could end up being note-worthy.
by huehehue on 12/12/23, 5:17 PM
Last year's thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628
(I predict csomar will create another one in a couple of weeks ;))
I also predict most of the low effort, ChatGPT-based businesses will shutter, and companies will sunset ChatGPT-based features because they're not worth maintaining. There will be no major disruption/breakthrough in the technology, the hype will continue to cool as the average person moves on to the next thing. The market will continue to suck, but not because AI is taking our jobs.
by mikewarot on 12/12/23, 5:07 PM
Barry-1[1] manages to climb 100 Km higher in orbit without using propellant. Quantized Inertia, on which the purely electrical thruster is based, starts to draw interest.
You can follow along, watching the Semi-Major axis. There are other experiments on board, once those are complete, they'll be switching on in a month or so.
[1] https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/graph-orbit-data.php?CA...
by leke on 12/17/23, 1:25 PM
These were my predictions for 2023 - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34196161
My prediction for the web is that this will be the year of HTMX.
My prediction for the war is that Russia will have full mobilisation.
2023 will not be the year for disclosure.
2023 will not be the year for the adoption of an international language.
These are my predictions for 2024
My prediction for the web is that this will be the year of HTMX.
My prediction for the war is that Russia will have full mobilisation.
2024 will not be the year for disclosure.
2024 will not be the year for the adoption of an international language.
HAHA!
by Ekaros on 12/12/23, 5:00 PM
I think it is entirely realistic that some big or prominent companies will start to go away if there isn't large crisis which leads to drastic dropping of the rates...
by b20000 on 12/12/23, 4:52 PM
a major class action lawsuit about the use of leetcode style interviews as a closet tool for age, gender and race discrimination will be won against a big tech co
by kwant_kiddo on 12/12/23, 5:22 PM
- Google will lose the 30% tax on their app store and so will Apple.
- OpenAI is going dominate the AI-space (again).
- Inflation will continue to go down, and we will see inflation at ~2 % at the end of 2024.
- Trump will be favoring the american election starting at the end of 2024.
- Ukraine will be forced to start negotiations on giving up land to Russia.
- a JSON parser will be accepted into the C++ standard, but still no official package manager, just kidding =)
by b2bsaas00 on 12/12/23, 4:58 PM
- SP500 down near 3,000$
- Bitcoin crash
- Fed will stimulate during stock declining and inflation will raise again
- Google search traffic will decline caused by ChatGPT
by pbkompasz on 12/12/23, 5:07 PM
Generative AI bubble pop
by WallyFunk on 12/12/23, 6:59 PM
More weird weather because of climate change. Heatwaves aswell as extreme cold snaps, no happy medium.
by hnthrowaway0315 on 12/14/23, 8:00 PM
More geopolitical fires.
More stringent controls gov will put on civilians.
More mass layoffs.
Basically a worse world.
by gaoryrt on 12/13/23, 7:13 AM
2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628
by simne on 12/16/23, 3:35 AM
Greetings from Ukraine, country at war.
Well people, you have really interest predictions, but they all depend on how Ukraine withstand.
This is not very high probability case, but unfortunately, it is really possible, Ukraine could fall.
If Ukraine will fall, will start chain reaction of conflicts in all parts of world, and US will become literally owe their allies to help.
And this is not only about tiny countries, this will involve China-Taiwan, China-Korea, and may be even China-Japan, and Putin will not stop in Ukraine but will continue in Baltic and probably, Poland.
If will happen so many wars, in 2024, probably, US will consider to turn economy to war rails, and next years could become similar to 1940th, when military administration dictated to business, what to produce.
For example in 1940s, already exists good diesel locomotives, but mils prohibited steam locomotives producers to switch to diesel, and huge part of diesel production directed to ship building.
Unfortunately, if Ukraine will just stop on current positions, or even if Ukraine with western help will return territory from occupation, this will not mean world is safe.
- Russia constantly grow military production, and even when we see limits, we cannot be sure,they will not invent some new method to avoid sanctions. And even with current production, they could attack EU in 5-6 years, so now, in NATO conduct talks about be ready for war in 3 years.
So, any way, in 24, Ukraine war will constant headache of west, and US military already officially said, they preparing for war with China in 25, and I'm to lazy to list how Poland and Baltic countries already preparing for war, you could read in wiki and google.
by rcbdev on 12/12/23, 11:38 PM
Donald J. Trump will again become the leader of the free world. Hilarity ensues.
by aserafini on 12/13/23, 7:23 AM
I predict that the daily supply of new Bitcoins will halve at some point during 2024.
by kjellsbells on 12/13/23, 3:08 AM
1. the American left will tear itself apart over the war in Gaza, to the delight of Republicans, who will win the 2024 election.
2. The US government, ably helped by the actions of the crypto bros, will finish the destruction of the crypto industry.
3. All pretense of AI for good, ethical AI, etc, will be jettisoned in a gold rush for money, but almost no one will make any money from it.
(I am not making any statements about the desirability, or not, of these outcomes.)
by leke on 12/14/23, 2:45 PM
Oh, I made predictions for 2023 on HN. I need to find them.
by p1esk on 12/13/23, 4:43 AM
GPT-5.
Everything else that could happen in 2024 would be insignificant in comparison.
by okdood64 on 12/13/23, 1:46 AM
Where's the 2023 thread?
by eimrine on 12/12/23, 4:37 PM
permacrisis