by momirlan on 11/2/23, 10:26 PM with 635 comments
by chiph on 11/3/23, 12:58 PM
I'm not interested in owning a science experiment. I want something that has real buttons so I can use my muscle memory to push them without taking my eyes off the road. I don't want something that beeps at me all the damned time (looking at you, Toyota/Lexus/Subaru). I want something with decent range (300 miles/500km) - I don't mind stopping at the 4-5 hour mark to recharge - I need to recharge too at that point. I don't want an all-glass roof - I live in the South and it gets hot here. I want comfortable seats. After trade-in and cash-down, I don't want a payment much over $600. I don't mind spending $1200 to install a charger at home - it's a one-time purchase that I will be able to use over several vehicles and adds value to the house.
I'm sure I sound like a cranky old man (because I am). But there's a reason why car design has converged over the last century to the control layout we have today. It's because it works.
https://www.hagerty.com/media/car-profiles/driving-a-model-t...
by avalys on 11/3/23, 7:21 AM
An electric drivetrain is a way better driving experience than the miserable turbocharged 4-cylinder engines that everyone has been forced to use for fuel economy reasons today, even premium brands like Mercedes and BMW. These are nasty, underpowered, vibrating pieces of shit with no torque and no power unless you run them at thousands of RPM, where they're loud and buzzy. Just complete fucking garbage.
It's a shame EVs are not catching on, because they're really just better cars. I'd definitely pay a premium for an EV (and I have). I suppose the problem is that, if you're not a car enthusiast, a $30k Toyota hybrid is still a better deal, even if it drives like shit.
by aaronbrethorst on 11/3/23, 6:01 AM
I want an adorable, tiny EV Mitsubishi Delica for $13,000 new. https://www.mitsubishi-motors.com/en/newsrelease/2023/detail...
Or this adorable, tiny EV SUV for about the same price: https://www.thedrive.com/news/gms-tiny-electric-pickup-is-an...
by thelastgallon on 11/3/23, 4:04 AM
(1) legacy car manufacturers don't know how to make cars. They forgot how to make cars decades ago. All components are manufactured by someone else, they slap their label on it. If you don't know how to make cars, it is nearly impossible to make new kind of cars.
(2) If you don't know how to do something, you can spend some money and learn. Legacy car manufacturers had $250 billion profits, but didn't spend any money on building this capability. Meanwhile, Tesla made electric cars, built supercharger network, built gigafactories, expanded these capabilities globally.
(3) Dealers hate EVs. Even if legacy manufacturers make EVs, dealers won't sell them. I've been going to dealerships every year for more than five years, dealers treat you like shit if you wanna buy an EV. Which is understandable, ICE cars have 2000+ moving parts and tons of repairs, EVs have 20 moving parts and zero repairs. They aren't going to make much money replacing windshield wipers.
(4) Meanwhile, China has figured out how to do EVs at scale, iterating and improving batteries and EVs. Eventually, legacy car manufacturers will go bust (after taking tens of billions in bailouts). We'll import cars from China either directly or indirectly. If there are too many tariffs, China is going to build assembly plants in Mexico or Canada, sell them very competitively in US. VW sells ID.3 for 16K in China, the competition is intense![2]
[1]https://www.epi.org/blog/uaw-automakers-negotiations/
[2] https://insideevs.com/news/675842/volkswagen-slashes-id3-pri...
by wkat4242 on 11/3/23, 12:32 AM
In fact I don't have a car at all. But if I got one it wouldn't be an EV until nearly every parking space has a charger so I can combine a trip with a charge.
But really I'm so happy I don't have a car anymore. There's so many drawbacks.
- Huge cost and high depreciation
- Maintenance costs and time sink
- Tyre swap in winter
- insurance and worry about losing no claim bonus
- Road tax and chance of fines if you miss a speed sign
- Finding parking and paying for that
- Worry about break-in, damage and theft
- Not being able to do anything productive while driving (on the train I can do so just fine)
- Always having to return to where you parked it (a much overlooked convenience of public transport)
I don't really see how all these drawbacks compensate for slightly more easily getting from A to B. Public transport here is amazing and costs 20€ unlimited per month. If I'm in a hurry a taxi will cost a tenner or so. And as I work mostly from home most of trips involve going out and drinking so I wouldn't be able to drive anyway :P
And I see more and more of my friends going car free too. I think that's more of a reason for dropping car sales now.
by yobid20 on 11/2/23, 11:36 PM
by LarsAlereon on 11/2/23, 10:40 PM
by object-a on 11/3/23, 1:32 AM
If we care about reducing carbon, we'll probably get more milage out of more walkable cities, expanded public transit, and e-bikes/scooters for local trips.
by throwawaaarrgh on 11/3/23, 12:58 PM
- I need a truck with large towing capacity and no EV but a Semi currently comes close.
Reasons why I don't want to buy an EV:
- I live in an apartment with street parking. The nearest public chargers are 15 minutes away. Charging would be a time consuming hassle.
- Any EV truck is at least 5x more expensive than the average used truck.
- I don't want to have to plan out every single trip around where the next charger is. I'd like to go hiking in the Catskills and not have to create an Excel spreadsheet to figure out where I'll need to stop for power and how long.
- Unless you can use a Tesla charger, public chargers suck. They often are broken, do not provide nearly enough power, have difficult payment systems, etc. Many EV drivers just don't get how shitty non-Tesla chargers are.
- I like driving standard transmission. I could technically hire someone to retrofit an EV with a manual trans. I can't imagine how expensive that would be.
Reasons why I wish I could buy an EV:
- Larger trucks are insanely fuel inefficient. I want to pay less for fuel and have longer range.
- ICE maintenance is a huge pain. I don't want to deal with all the broken stuff and constantly going in for minor to major repairs and maintenance.
- I'd like to help people with asthma and the environment.
by vertnerd on 11/3/23, 11:43 AM
by huytersd on 11/3/23, 6:16 AM
by Animats on 11/3/23, 6:00 AM
by nusl on 11/2/23, 11:17 PM
by emilecantin on 11/3/23, 12:27 PM
- Must seat 6 (I have 4 kids, I'm not going to start doing 2 trips)
- Must be below 100k CAD (y'know, budget. I'm still way stretching at this price point.)
I could not find a single EV that fit these 2 criteria. Tesla had a 7-seater option on the Y, which I did actually order, but then they canceled my order as they stopped selling the 7-seater in Canada.
In the end, I had to fall back to the closest thing, a PHEV. Even there, the choices are pretty much only the Mitshubishi Outlander or the Chrysler Pacifica, and I'm not a SUV guy so I got the Pacifica.
Manufacturers need to stop competing on the same exact car (boring 5-seater mini-SUVs) and start offering some variety, maybe they'll see more sales.
by Tade0 on 11/3/23, 11:59 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/08/08/ch...
Non-Chinese automakers better prepare themselves, because whoever comes out on top from that struggle will take over the market just like it happened with solar panels.
by iandanforth on 11/3/23, 12:32 PM
Note: This sweet spot seems to have disappeared from the market as I don't believe any plug-in hybrids available in the US today match the EV range of the Clarity.
by AYBABTME on 11/3/23, 9:01 AM
These companies are walking dead. And like IBM, they probably can be walking dead for a good while.
by NoGravitas on 11/3/23, 3:03 PM
by xkgt on 11/3/23, 12:25 PM
by 11thEarlOfMar on 11/3/23, 1:14 PM
It's interesting that there is no mention in the article about most auto makers adopting the Tesla charging standard and ceding profit on charging to Tesla. That pattern will continue as Tesla's all-out technology and investment sprint continues to widen the gap.
In my view, by the time the legacy auto makers get a profitable, competitively priced BEV into the showrooms, Tesla (and the Chinese companies) will have their low-cost factory running in Mexico, lowering the bar on them again. And then Full Self Driving will go wide as the final nail in the coffin.
I'm not a short-seller because people like short sellers about the same as undertakers, but if I were, I'd be betting that the legacy autos are declaring bankruptcy again in less than 5 years.
by Mountain_Skies on 11/3/23, 10:58 AM
by avgDev on 11/3/23, 2:31 AM
I can replace a transmission or engine on my ford focus for $500, the car is at 140k miles with basic maintenance.
There is no way around battery replacement out of warranty and Tesla has recently raised their battery prices. I happen to keep my cars for 10+ years because its a depreciating asset.
by Animats on 11/3/23, 6:40 AM
This will hasten adoption. We'll see gas stations taking out their pumps and tanks to put in chargers and transformers.
500KW chargers already exist.[1]
[1] https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/19/23922649/gravity-dc-fast...
by happytiger on 11/3/23, 5:29 AM
by nologic01 on 11/3/23, 1:22 PM
It feels that aiming for an all or nothing 0% -> 100% electrification of the planet's automobile infrastructure needlessly raises the bar (both on what cars should be able to deliver and what the grid / infrastructure should be able to sustain).
The sustainability transition is really a long-term marathon, not a fireworks display. It must carry society along at a steady clip, be affordable and usable etc.
by rickydroll on 11/3/23, 2:47 PM
They should have taken a stab at seeing what kind of a car you could build for a retail price of $15,000-$20,000. I believe Citroen did something like this as everyone has been complaining here, my question to folks is what car features are essential for you and which are disposable? For me, heating, air conditioning, hundred and 50 mile range with aggressive driving, good all-around visibility, plenty of room for 6 foot tall person but can adjust for a 5 foot person. Antilock brakes. Would be nice is anticollision front radar, blind spot detection, radar adaptive cruise control. Heated steering wheel and heated seats. Dashboard display and entertainment center could be two off-the-shelf tablets.
That's my wish list. What would be the right thing for you?
by novia on 11/3/23, 4:03 PM
In 2018, I went to several car dealerships in North Carolina with the intent to buy an electric car. Not one carried them. The salespeople claimed, "there's no demand," but there was one person right in front of them demanding an electric car. If I were the executives at the car companies, I wouldn't trust what the dealers were telling me.
by janosdebugs on 11/3/23, 9:58 AM
by shsbdncudx on 11/3/23, 3:28 AM
by MR4D on 11/3/23, 5:26 PM
/my $0.00002
by epolanski on 11/3/23, 1:12 PM
I feel a bit vindicated.
by lamontcg on 11/3/23, 4:55 PM
by LeonM on 11/3/23, 9:02 AM
Toyota cars are currently rather cheap to buy in Europe and USA. But Toyota still primarily offers ICE and hybrids, they are late to the BEV game.
Where I live, a Tesla Model 3 (€43k, with incentives) is still about 10k more expensive as a comparable Toyota Corolla hybrid (€33k).
That all said, in my country Teslas are still very popular, the model 3 has outsold every other car (ICE or EV) for the past few years, only to be overtaken by the model Y.
by was_a_dev on 11/3/23, 8:44 AM
My worry is buying an EV with a used battery - as the battery feels like the inevitable failure point
by ThinkBeat on 11/3/23, 6:52 AM
Well the tax credit is available already. That makes the slump harder to understand.
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean...
by onewheeltom on 11/5/23, 11:59 PM
by zqfm on 11/3/23, 3:11 PM
by theonlybutlet on 11/3/23, 11:35 AM
by throw8383833jj on 11/3/23, 4:37 PM
by jillesvangurp on 11/3/23, 7:39 AM
GM, Toyota, and Ford talk a lot about EVs but they struggle to build a lot of them. Upstarts like Rivian are actually threatening to displace these companies in terms of volume production of EVs. That's how bad it is. And of course Tesla and a range of Korean, Vietnamese, and Chinese manufacturers are already running circles around the legacy manufacturers with about an order of magnitude difference in volume production. And profits.
It's just the legacy manufacturers that are struggling to keep up. Some are further than others. But they all are burdened by supply chains that are mismatched with their EV strategy, legacy business units and product lines that are facing a steep cliff in terms of competitiveness and profitability, and just the reality of having to basically transition away from that on an accelerated timeline. And they are trying to figure out how to manufacture competitive EVs at scale and aren't as far as they'd like to be relative to their competition.
The strategy of building transitional vehicles that can be delivered in ICE, hybrid, or bev versions is flopping hard. They are compromise vehicles and just not as good as pure battery electric vehicles. More expensive to make, less efficient with space, weight, etc. Less desirable to own. Less competitive in what is a pretty competitive market. And priced unrealistically high to "protect" the "cheaper" hybrid and ICE range.
That was all fine until the macroeconomic circumstances changed. Some countries are already in a recession and others are pondering the semantics of whether they are or aren't in a recession. Interest rates have gone up and the cheap capital needed to bootstrap new EV manufacturing capacity is evaporating rapidly. And on top of that the new entrants in this market have started a price war in China. And of course sales are down in a recession. EVs are affected. Ice vehicles are affected more. And that's what legacy manufacturers depend on for revenue. Despite this, the EV market is still growing. But weaker companies might not make it. And the likes of the companies mentioned in the article are looking weak. It wouldn't be the first time for GM to go bankrupt. And they might need to do that again to cut loose from their legacy business.
The next few years are going to be brutal for these companies. The US is lagging other countries a bit but basically, like elsewhere, EVs are going from single digit (most of the US) to double digit percentage (much of northern Europe) market share to eventually a majority market share (Norway). Price points are coming down too. Sub 20k$ vehicles are already on the market. Just not in the US because of import regulations. But the world market is where the money is. It's going to be a massacre there for ICE vehicle manufacturers. All that EV growth is going to come out of their revenue. Unless they figure out how to take a cut of that, they are going to be going out of business.
by lgleason on 11/3/23, 6:01 AM
In the US it mostly is a decent decision to buy electric (and I love my Tesla and Volt I use here) but there are some caveats.
1. The insurance tends to be a bit more expensive.
2. You need to have a place with charging infrastructure (like your own home or an apartment etc. that has free charging).
3. Paid chargers often have similar costs to buying gas for ICE vehicles.
4. Battery degradation is a thing. As someone who lives in the SouthEast and likes to keep cars for 10-15+ years that becomes an issue with cars like the Volt where the only option that makes economic sense when the battery dies is to try to find a refurb from another vehicle if the car is out of warranty. As these refurbed batteries age, or people buy batteries from salvaged volts for home solar batteries that will become an issue (and already is for many 1st gen volts). The Tesla is not as likely to have that issue because a lot more were produced, but if other offerings have after sales support similar to the volt because of lower than expected sales volumes that becomes a perception issue down the road unless you want to just purchase a car, take a big depreciation hit and then trade it in a few years.
5. depreciation see #4.
6. Sales are currently slowing down with inventory piling up even with federal subsidies right now. Imagine how much lower it would be without them.
7. To add more range to a car like the Tesla you need to add more batteries which adds a lot of weight to the car (they have already gone after most the low hanging fruit with motor efficiency and vehicle wind drag). Because of the weight it goes through tires a lot quicker. (30K miles vs 60K average for tires)
Other countries, outside of Europe, China and other developed nations are a mixed bag.
For example in Costa Rica, where I have a property, even with the government tax discounts it doesn't make any sense because electric is really expensive there and it is difficult to get parts is something goes wrong. Also, if you want a car that you are not going to drive a lot of miles in every year there is also the issue of time degrading your battery which is going to be a lot more expensive and difficult to replace there.
South Africa has so many current problems with their electric grid that they heavily tax BEV's and plug in hybrid cars instead of offering tax breaks like other countries. Ironically, having solar panels and batteries for a house makes more sense there.
....and guess which car brand is has one of the higher theft rates because of parts and resale around the world....Toyota, who has been very slow to go BEV. The formula for Toyota is to wait until technologies are perfected and to then build reliable products that will last for years which the majority of buyers seem to prefer worldwide.
Because of the slow market adoption it will not surprise me if the legislation around the world to ban ICE sales ends up being relaxed before it takes effect and the transition happens much more slowly.
by 1970-01-01 on 11/3/23, 12:50 PM
by risfriend on 11/3/23, 1:02 PM
by renegat0x0 on 11/3/23, 7:29 AM
- Electric cars are privacy nightmare
- Electric cars can be hacked (Hyunday and Kia could be stolen using USB cable). It is more vulnerable
- There is still a ton of energy required to create a electric vehicle, and uses slave labour
- EV is not plan to last a decade. Electronic parts do not last that long. You can easily find a decade old Mercedes
- No real plan for battery disposal
- Does not work well in winter
- You cannot park it everywhere, as malls and garages will not allow it
There are many downsides of having EV
by throwaway5959 on 11/3/23, 12:39 AM
by jaimex2 on 11/3/23, 6:16 AM
by hospitalJail on 11/3/23, 11:40 AM
Need a better value proposition.
by shmerl on 11/3/23, 6:36 AM
by paulnpace on 11/3/23, 1:04 PM
by klyrs on 11/3/23, 3:34 AM
by assimpleaspossi on 11/3/23, 7:27 AM
This sounds more like a defeated competitor than a leader.
by ge96 on 11/3/23, 5:23 AM
by dboreham on 11/3/23, 6:55 AM
by jonplackett on 11/3/23, 7:21 AM
by hughw on 11/3/23, 12:19 PM