from Hacker News

Mark Spitznagel says the ‘greatest credit bubble in human history’ is set to pop

by cpp_frog on 8/11/23, 2:54 PM with 59 comments

by madballster on 8/13/23, 9:39 AM
Spitznagel runs a fund that specializes on so-called "tail-risk events", i.e. he profits from extremely unlikely economic scenarios such as hyperinflation or violent economic crashes. He profits more the more assets he has under management, because he charges his clients a performance fee of probably around 20% of profits. So part of his job is to constantly find new investors by telling them that the worst economic crisis is just around the corner. And how he he just happens ot have the right solution.
by speeder on 8/13/23, 10:51 AM
A lot of people are criticizing the article without reading it, so some points of the article in short term:
1. Yes, Mark is a hedge fund manager.
2. Yes, his fund is specialized in profiting from crashes.
3. But his advice is actually sound and not an ad for his fund.
3a. He said the excessive debt will make government expenses with the debt itself become too high eventually, forcing the government to stop spending and causing recession.
3b. He said that although his fund does profit from crashes, it is something hard to do consistently and expensive, retail investors should just try to profit.
3c. He said Warren Buffet advice that is good, for example buy a cheap index, and then invest more into the index whenever there is a crash, but never let your money on hand get low enough so you would be forced to sell during the crash.
4. The article was written because the author asked Mark for advice about what to do to prepare for a eventual future crash. Mark was chosen because his specialty in profiting from crashes.
5. The headline while true might mislead people, yes Mark said the bubble is set to pop, he didn't said it will pop soon, in fact he said it will pop "Eventually" and he has no idea when it will pop. And this is why he thinks copying his strategy is useless unless if you are retail investor.
by neilwilson on 8/13/23, 10:03 AM
“Spitznagel believes the rising interest expense on federal government debts will ultimately constrain fiscal spending, slow economic growth”
Yet if I give you $100 and you spend it that will create extra transactions and extra tax. Therefore increased interest payments are just the same as mailing a stimulus cheque to those who already have money.
More transactions = more growth not less.
We can of course change the distribution. Pass legislation requiring base rates to be set to zero permanently. [0]
Government debt rates will then automatically fall to Japanese levels. As Japan demonstrates.
[0]: https://theconversation.com/interest-rates-the-case-for-cutt...
by belter on 8/13/23, 10:47 AM
Things you need to look at:
"...After the March payday, its flagship Black Swan fund has produced a mean annual return on invested capital of 76%* since the firm was created in 2008. It’s a good result, but if you were going to make the same calculation as of Dec. 31 2019, the long-term compounded return would only be marginally better than that of the S&P 500 over the same time period..." - https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/04/13/how-a-go...
Also the way they report performance is singularly unique:
"Why One Firm's 3,612% Return Is Drawing the Ire of Hedge Funds" - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/why-one-firm-s-3-612-return-is-d...
The only question you need to ask Universa Investments is: "Did you create other hedge fund portfolios...That could possibly have similar returns out of your expertise...BUT...did not? And did you win down those after a few months or 1-2 years, before reporting on the performance of the surviving one?"
The trick above, is directly from "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb, who is listed as “distinguished scientific adviser” by the fund.
by 1vuio0pswjnm7 on 8/13/23, 9:56 AM
Fact or fiction: Someone once told me that the only black swans are found in New Zealand and before people from around the world started travelling there, for the rest of the world, there was no such thing as a black swan. If this is true, then it would seem the term "black swan" has been given a new meaning, namely a "rare" event, as opposed to some thing that people had not yet witnessed. Surely, this is fiction and Taleb is an expert on swans.
by unnouinceput on 8/13/23, 10:11 AM
The original story is here:
https://fortune.com/2023/08/05/black-swan-hedge-fund-mark-sp...
Yahoo simply took it over. I avoid yahoo like plague.
by H8crilA on 8/13/23, 9:14 AM
Doom prophecies aside, I do think that some deflation protection in the form of US 10 year bonds (or longer, if you have the stomach for it) may be a wise idea. The 10 year yield hasn't been this high since before 2008, offering a decent upside should we get back to the low rate regime. Although of course if this is a 1960s or even 1970s replay then these bonds will cheapen to single digit cents on the dollar.
Chart for reference - always good to keep in mind the big picture: https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-...
by slushh on 8/13/23, 10:48 AM
It's only a bubble if there is no value to back it up. Is the housing market going to crash or are consumers going to be unemployed to the point that they cannot pay back the household dept?
Otherwise, I like to believe that rising dept ratios only reflect that the people who know how to invest profitably are not the people who currently have money.
With AI at the horizon, is a value of 2 high for the Buffet indicator? If only big companies have the resources to train NN, who but those traded companies is going to capture the entire GDP?
by gchokov on 8/13/23, 9:11 AM
All of the doomsayers are once in a while right..
by andrewstuart on 8/13/23, 9:24 AM
Does Mark Spitbznagel run a hedge fund, perchance?
It’s never a surprise to hear bad news from people who make money from bad news.
by __Joker on 8/13/23, 10:13 AM
Econmics noob here.
Leaving aside the Ad Hominem that Spitznagel is hedge fund manager who might benefit from the said event.
I can only gather two main points in the argument.
1. Level of debt is at unprecedented levels ( private, public, global)
2. Kind of follows from 1, Government(FED) has very high annual debt servicing.
How we go from 1&2 to popping the credit bubble ?
by NovaDudely on 8/13/23, 9:31 AM
I have heard this every month for the last decade.
by ReptileMan on 8/13/23, 10:44 AM
What is his track record so far with being right?
by malikNF on 8/13/23, 9:43 AM
To the folk who dismiss this as “just another hedge fund manager who stand to win if everyone fails”
Why do you think this event or any other kind of big economic downturn is unlikely to happen?