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Ask HN: Is the Market Recovering?

by blingojames on 7/13/23, 11:06 AM with 101 comments

• by benreesman on 7/13/23, 11:42 AM

  One anecdote here:

  for me personally the job/funding market collapsed in maybe December of 2022.

  In November I got ~10 inbound pings from credible recruiters or HR folks at credible shops a week, and that was typical of probably the last 5 or 10 years.

  In December it was zero and has stayed zero until this month when I’ve had 2.

  Outbound resumes and pinging the network was pretty much “I wish I could help you” all year until May/June and now conversations are starting to go somewhere at least in the early stages. The compensation packages people are talking are still like a quarter of what was typical a year ago if that.

  So it seems like we’ve got a ways to go before the market starts operating with consistent price discovery, but I’m seeing the ice crack here and there.

• by Macha on 7/13/23, 11:56 AM

  Can't speak for startups, not a big employer in my market (possibly this is the cause of the mitigated impact here), but as for job seekers:

  2021/2022 were insane here. Recruiters trying every angle to get your attention, companies doubling in size.

  It feels like here (Ireland) though, the retreat was much less pronounced. It feels more like 2019/2020 than any kind of crash. I know people who have been laid off, they've found other jobs at comparable pay. I know people who've moved for more pay. _I've_ moved for significantly more pay and a more firm commitment to wfh.

  There are some things that are unhealthy for sure. The market seems to have bifurcated between grads/juniors who are having a much harder time breaking in than previously, and mid level + who are basically unaffected. Possibly this will make its way up the ladder over time, but it basically started with the grad/junior market in 2020 before the interest rate increases.

• by idkyall on 7/13/23, 11:26 AM

  Assuming you mean the US. I think it depends a great deal on the area and part of the economy you are targeting. I have seen a ton of hiring in my local area by banks, for example. The large cap tech company(b2b) I work at is still in a hiring freeze, by contrast.

  I doubt that startup funding will recover much until interest rates go down, as I think the general attitude right now is pretty conservative about investment. Probably this will recover early to mid ~2024, and definitely by 2025[1] depending on when the US Fed cuts interest rates.

  [1]https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcproj...

• by sixhobbits on 7/13/23, 11:30 AM

  https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/NA...

  If you look at nasdaq around the dotcom crash it also had a fake bounce before the real crash. Past doesn't predict the future but also no reason we couldn't be in a fake bounce now.

• by ReDeiPirati on 7/13/23, 11:52 AM

  For job seekers not at all. I just finished my job search after 5 months and 1 week. After 179 applications, 22 interviews, 2 offers later, I'd say that it's one of the toughest and miserable job market someone can find into. I job search-ed even during the pandemic, and although it was difficult, imho this one is order of magnitude worse... The Senior you are the better chance you'll have, but there is no market for JR, and I feel so bad for them because I have a few people that I care about that are in that condition and aren't able to find almost any openings.

  For startup funding, if you are in AI it's fine. Otherwise better presenting with very good metrics and not with the pressing needs of raising money.

  It's impossible to say when it will recover, but I'll echo the people in this thread that say "not this year".

• by kypro on 7/13/23, 12:26 PM

  Reminder to please state your location if giving anecdotes.

  I'm from the UK. I was looking for job in January. I have never seen the market so quiet. I found a role (contract), but according to recruiters I was quite lucky to do so.

  It's picked up a lot since then in terms of total number of jobs, but I've noticed rates have significantly dropped from 2021 / 2022 levels. I'd say on average rates have dropped around 20% so a £500/day contract in early 2022 will now be around £400.

  I've noticed certain sectors of the economy seem to be a little strong. Government, health care, AI and luxury goods / services have been a common theme among roles I've noticed.

  In terms of when it will make a full recovery I have no idea. I think here in the UK things will only continue to get worse as rates continue to rise, the government is forced to continue to raise taxes on individuals and companies to fund its increasing levels spending, and the economy continues to slow as a result.

  I'd give it at least a year to recovery fully, but it's hard to project too far out right now given AI trends. It's quite possible 2021-2022 was the best it was ever going to get for our profession.

• by ptrrrrrrppr on 7/13/23, 11:45 AM

  In Poland it's still a little bit slower, only serious hiring I see is for senior roles in business critical teams. No great new investments made

• by csomar on 7/13/23, 11:23 AM

  It's still scared like a wet chicken. Most founders, VCs, employees, banks, etc.. and even the government itself are waiting to see how the monetary part is going to unfold before declaring anything or making any decisions.

  I think we should know before the end of this year.

• by bettercallsalad on 7/13/23, 12:22 PM

  I am not a macro-expert but I follow several who I consider are.

  The view seems to be right now this macro environment is very similar to what we had during 1940s, where we had persistent (with fluctuations but upward trend) inflations due to fiscal spendings (war in 1940s vs Covid this time).

  By this theory, this is just a “pause” before inflation sticks again and shows a persistent outlook. BoE already acknowledged this.

  Part of the issue is of course war in Europe causing energy and manufacturing crisis in EU that countries like Germany hasn’t recovered from and there is not much hope it will in near future. The other part is persistent fiscal spending, a big part of which is driven by debt servicing due to rising interest rate causing some kind of vicious cycle.

  If you follow Fed speak, they are also more using cautious words like “pause” and not saying we are out of the woods yet.

  Market is of course forward looking, bond market thinks there is not much Fed can go before breaking something as you can see in the spread of interest rate between 10Y vs 2/3Y.

  I don’t think anyone really knows but Wage growth is persistent and productivity is clearly down. I bet the market will look much gloomier once the Q2 numbers start coming out and show margins are clearly down.

• by jFriedensreich on 7/13/23, 2:10 PM

  I am in the german/ european job market as senior fulllstack dev and i see a slight reason to be optimistic but only for the last week or so, but this week might just be an exception we'll see. During the pandemic job opportunities were maybe at 5% and started to recover to maybe 15% mainly fueled by companies that profitet from the change in user behaviour. During the start of the war, the reality check for companies realising users are starting to go back to normal and companies feeling the war effects and supply chain issues combined to basically comopletely destroy the market and offers went to 0%. Since then it was nearly total 0%.

  But in addition i noticed also a change in jobs for the few exceptions: Offers include either AI or much more traditional tech, more java / python, much less js. This is to be expected as VC money drying out leads to less new projects and more old and profitable businesses in relation. But also applications are handled differently. Before the pandemic i could nearly always go stright to a conversation with someone and talk about development and cultural fit, now there are probably so many applicants per role, that companies check for university degrees, obsess over CVs showing multiple projects with exact same tech and having worked at FAANG or at least big known successes. Also no part time or reduced time opporties have survived as far as i can tell. Also there are nearly always weird formalities that i did not have to deal with in the boom phase, such as requesting formal pdf cover letters explaining why you want to work for that specific company or having to record a video to proof you can talk on a camera, i even saw IQ assessment tests.

  I dearly hope we go back to the good old times or i find a new niche.

• by santiagobasulto on 7/13/23, 11:30 AM

  AI hype seems to be creating a different sensation, but in reality, nobody knows.

  Looking at "hard facts", the yield curve is in the "most inverted" position in a LONG time. I'd still be cautious.

• by fidotron on 7/13/23, 11:48 AM

  I think there are several possibilities, among them is the idea it will not recover. What has made things rebound previously is the emergence of some new platform and/or a new way to make money on a platform. For the first time in decades it feels like the low hanging fruit have all been picked and the VR/metaverse idea is not proving nearly so compelling as many hoped.

  In the near future I suspect any major growth in this sector will be around environmental problems, probably kicking off in earnest later this year, and fixing hilariously inefficient cloud deployments would probably count.

  The simple fact though is a lot of people that had been in the software industry really weren’t cut out for it, and were in the way of those that are. We will be better off when they find their true calling making money elsewhere.

• by barelyauser on 7/13/23, 11:21 AM

  Interest rates are on the rise. Money is expensive. Not recovering this year.

• by gumby on 7/13/23, 11:24 AM

  For fundraising, I don’t expect anything to happen over the summer but anticipate a rise come September

• by epolanski on 7/13/23, 12:30 PM

  It may not be as cold as it was months ago here in Europe, but I don't see the situation reverting to 12 months ago ever again.

  I think the toughest situation is for people entering the market for the first time.

• by adaml_623 on 7/13/23, 11:19 AM

  Which country and area OP?

• by Tade0 on 7/13/23, 12:12 PM

  It's too early to say - we will have to wait for September, when the backlog of recruitment targets from two quarters will have to be flushed.

  In any case over here in Poland - a fairly popular outsourcing destination - FAANG have been hiring all this time.

  Basically some jobs permanently moved to where employers can get away with paying 50-70% of what they used to.

  Recruitment is also being increasingly outsourced - your standard corporate drone contracts are handled by people who don't speak the local language.

• by indymike on 7/13/23, 3:09 PM

  Recruiting software founder here.

  Job Seekers for tech: seeing lots of people on the market, and the companies that are hiring are not offering FAANG style comp packages.

  Startup Funding: It's still slow, and VCs tend to be very cautious lack of easy money from Crypto + GPT uncertainty + SVB has thrown a wrench in things.

  When will it recover: A few years for both. Comp got crazy, especially in big tech. It will take a while for generative AI to work iteself out.

• by treprinum on 7/13/23, 12:04 PM

  Anything related to AI is going absolutely crazy right now. I doubled my comp recently and had to reject multiple offers.

• by trabant00 on 7/13/23, 11:43 AM

  As long as the war in Ukraine lasts I don't think we are going to see any improvement. A lot of money is going there and so the value of the money remaining for investing, development, spending, is diminished.

  As for the war I initially guessed 3-5 years, now I'm guessing 10. So I'm quite pessimistic about the near future.

• by cddotdotslash on 7/13/23, 2:46 PM

  Anecdotal, I’m in the US (NYC) and the number of unsolicited inbound recruiter pings is back up to 2-3 per week (was getting maybe 1 every month towards the end of last year/early this year). Still down from mid last year when I was getting probably 5 messages a day.

• by xupybd on 7/13/23, 11:41 AM

  Seeing some recovery here in NZ in the manufacturing industry. It's still pretty bad.

• by seattle2bay on 7/16/23, 9:05 PM

  From what I've seen, it's a no. On contrary, mixed with the summer slowdown I've noticed that hiring is pretty much on hold across the board.

• by amelius on 7/13/23, 12:00 PM

  How about the semiconductor shortages, is the situation getting better?

• by datavirtue on 7/13/23, 12:49 PM

  The market is down? I'm in Ohio, things haven't cooled off at all.