from Hacker News

Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

by qb on 6/24/23, 8:26 AM with 170 comments

• by Lewton on 6/24/23, 10:17 AM

  @dang anything mentioning Wagner group is being flagged off the main page, I could see why some people would react that way when there’s a 20 articles shared about the same thing in an hour, but it’s a bit disturbing that there’s currently zero articles on the front page about this

• by dagaci on 6/24/23, 9:48 AM

  This like AOE2, where an enemy quietly cuts through the huge forest and the enemy suddenly appears in your base when most of your army is at the front. Your front is wrecked if you run back, and your game is wrecked if you don’t.

• by brutusborn on 6/24/23, 9:16 AM

  Does anyone have sources for this stuff?

  I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?

• by logicchains on 6/24/23, 8:46 AM

  I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

• by rpadovani on 6/24/23, 9:11 AM

  I am curious on how this will reflect on the Ukraine invasion: as far as I understand, Wagner was a huge source of soldiers on the front lines.

  I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?

• by TekMol on 6/24/23, 8:58 AM

  What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions?

  Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.

• by tibbydudeza on 6/24/23, 9:01 AM

  They are in Voronezh now on their way to capture local airfield - regular Russian units backfilled with conscripts (the good ones were all decimated in Ukraine) won't take on Wagner troops on the ground.

  Air power will be the key.

• by consumer451 on 6/24/23, 9:15 AM

  Ed Nash is a military analyst who has provided factual information in the past. This video includes a translated statement from the leader of Wagner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIY3OfSU1VY

  Here is a Russian anti-war streamer. This is a much longer and less formal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIn41Gl6pVU

• by rixrax on 6/24/23, 8:48 AM

  Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

• by tomalaci on 6/24/23, 10:27 AM

  BBC seems to be more "Live" with recent events including them taking another city/town [1].

  [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

• by tmaly on 6/24/23, 6:16 PM

  I find it funny how everyone is suddenly a Russian foreign policy expert.

  Given the fog of war, I am taking a wait and see approach.

• by JeremyNT on 6/24/23, 1:44 PM

  Reporting from a traditional media outlet:

  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-hi...

• by hutzlibu on 6/24/23, 9:41 AM

  My estimation: short term it will fail.

  Long term it will lead to substantial power movement.

  Most of the young nationalistic russians are Wagner fans and despise the ordinary military, they view as corrupt and incompetent (which might be very true).

  But they have been the fuel of the war. If Wagner is no more, or just a soulless hulk, this fuel is gone and moral will drop significantly.

  And the current options for Prigoshin are

  a) become a marty

  b) submit to "justice" and public trial (but he knows this will likely not happen, but rather bullet or poison)

  c) defect to Ukraine

  He already made clear statements, that the war was wrong from the beginning, there was never a threat from Ukraine and the evil military commanders gave Putin wrong information. This sounds to me like building a bridge.

  In either case, for the russian empire it is a desaster. And if it becomes a true desaster, there are chances it will become a disaster for everyone, as russian think tanks openly discussed the possibility of "preemptive counter nuclear strike". If they are about to die, they are willing to take everyone with them.

  Mostly this is surely bluffing, as they made that statement, while they the internal power struggle was already ongoing as a message to the west: "don't exploit our weakness, we still have nukes". But partly I think it is a legit threat of cornered bullies.

• by topspin on 6/24/23, 9:04 AM

  This is off the hook. @mysaigin says the AN-24 shoot down is old... oh well.

  If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.

• by Redoubts on 6/24/23, 12:26 PM

  What… is this site and what’s with the swiftlang logo

• by webmobdev on 6/24/23, 9:12 AM

  It was inevitable - this is what happens when you allow private armies as a business. Nearly a century ago, when the British government decided to take control of a private army the British empire ultimately collapsed because of the backlash from the corporates who ran it. Putin is right to act swiftly and harshly against this kind of behaviour before they become an actual threat to the nation - Mercenaries, unlike national armies, tend to prioritise money and power. (In fact, the harsh action against them seems to suggest that is exactly how the Russians are looking at it - that this group has been paid to rebel).

• by bsaul on 6/24/23, 9:00 AM

  very confused by the logo, which is the one from the swift programming language. What's the relationship ?

• by ch33zer on 6/24/23, 9:17 AM

  Can someone tell me why Putin let it get this far? It seems pretty foreseeable that when you have two independent militaries in constant conflict with each other, and when the heads of both are publicly insulting and threatening each other that eventually this will boil over. Did he just need Wagner that badly that he tolerated the open insults to his military as long as they were winning battles in Ukraine?

  Didn't the head of Wagner have close ties to Putin? I guess those are pretty much severed now?

• by woodpanel on 6/24/23, 8:48 AM

  > Swift Forecaster: 42%. Very uncertain about this right now.

  after the west being duped by him time and again, has there been zero introspection into our own biases? How is anyone believing this?