by leet_thow on 2/9/23, 5:01 PM with 88 comments
by feoren on 2/9/23, 7:47 PM
Long ago, people could get work as a scribe or scrivener -- knowing how to read and write was, on its own, enough to get you a job. As literacy became more prevalent, it wasn't enough to "just read". You had to "read and ____". Similar to business; I would not recommend someone get "just a business degree" so they can apply to any company in the world. I'd recommend they get a "business degree and ____" to target a specific industry or role.
The same is slowly happening with programming. As the spectrum of what "programming" means continues to widen, and as code-literacy becomes more and more common, it's going to be harder to get a job as "just a programmer". So learn to code, And.
by shadowgovt on 2/9/23, 5:34 PM
... I don't think I'd specifically recommend "Learn to drive a big rig" though. In addition to the industry itself being a real bad deal for vehicle operators (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-sho...), it's the segment of the transportation sector centered in the crosshairs of disruption-through-automation.
The self-driving vehicle companies that laid off were, broadly speaking, the ones working on individual vehicles and taxi services, not the ones working on self-driving trucks. That sector is still going strong because the value proposition is simple and obvious (lives saved and money saved per mile).
by skee8383 on 2/9/23, 5:55 PM
by logicalmonster on 2/9/23, 5:18 PM
> As time goes on, businesses are continuing to rely on more software, not less software.
> AI tools are very fascinating, but are nowhere near ready to replace most programmers for most tasks.
If those points are true enough, developers as a group aren't going away, though some individuals might choose a different path.
by bunbunbun on 2/9/23, 5:05 PM
by riskneutral on 2/9/23, 5:36 PM
by Zetobal on 2/9/23, 5:29 PM
by autokad on 2/9/23, 5:41 PM
One port change can cause truck routes to disappear. also simple routes will probably be replaced by self driving rigs in the future. I would highly not recommend lots of people jumping into that.
however, if this tech rekt lasts, I imagine people will be flocking to the next big thing until that crashes too. its like bulls on ice
by braingenious on 2/9/23, 5:19 PM
by floor2 on 2/9/23, 6:18 PM
People are significantly overreacting to the current layoffs and ignoring all the massive hiring spree of the last 3 years. If you hire 100 people and then layoff 8, the narrative shouldn't be that the end is nigh.
by irvingprime on 2/9/23, 5:34 PM
That being the case, there is no harm in learning another way to make a living. Having a fallback is always a good idea. If it becomes the main thing because your first career never came back, count yourself lucky and go with it.
by VLM on 2/9/23, 5:56 PM
Likewise, strangely, coding is also frictional. The business people who could "write their own code in COBOL" or "write their entire business in excel spreadsheets" would already be programmers if they could program which they can't so they don't AND management will not be up to the task of deploying profitable AI, so coders also have guaranteed work.
To some extent, labor only exists via mismanagement of capital. Humans CLEARLY aren't capable of properly managing a rail logistical infrastructure, so truck drivers have permanent employment. I would theorize that humans aren't capable of deploying AI generated programs, we've barely been able to deploy code written by competent humans, so coders should have permanent employment.
by wnolens on 2/9/23, 7:16 PM
I think the opposite will become increasingly true: folks that otherwise would not be found in a computer science/engineering undergraduate will find their way to tech.
Software/Tech is incredibly wide and deep. There's need all over the stack, and there is definitely lots of need at the medium-skill level. I spend a lot of time configuring AWS, and running simple db queries. Look at the heaps of programmers who are economically successful in a single framework like React.
I think the field will stratify and there's lots of room in the 50-80k/y range doing useful tech work for businesses in every sector. I can see it in FAANG where there's a clear distinction between those destined for Staff level and invent new things, and those who will plateau at SDE2 but do so much necessary work.
by livingdeadpgmr on 2/9/23, 9:19 PM
by eiiot on 2/12/23, 8:09 PM
Also, just a note on the specific comparison: it's a lot easier to learn to code in one's spare time than to learn to drive a big rig. Learning to code is free, and can remain free until you ship your first product. The same is not true for most other career choices.
by Ancapistani on 2/9/23, 5:49 PM
I know I'm not the only one here who didn't enter tech immediately after college. Once upon a time I was an electrician. I've done framing, roofing, general farm work, I was a pharmacy technician and ran a photo processing lab. My hobbies today include things like machining.
The "problem" in tech isn't so much the availability of jobs, but the relative income. There's nothing I've found that I could do that would replace my income in a reasonable time frame. If I left tech I'd be looking at a >50% reduction in income.
by potbelly83 on 2/9/23, 9:33 PM
- coding
- architecting systems (if we're in the design phase of a project)
- writing design documentation
- researching business requirements (basically understanding the domain i'm working in)
- getting cross org support for my work and meeting stake holders
So yeah for most tech roles nowadays, learn to code is the equivalent of learn to send an email. I think the days are numbered for developers who just want a bunch of Jira tickets given to them and be left alone.
by dieselgate on 2/9/23, 5:26 PM
I find this all hilarious because just like 5 years ago so many were quoting Bill Gates saying "programming knowledge will be the literacy of the 21st century" and it depends. If people are all so genuinely interested in tech and coding in the first place what's the problem?
by karaterobot on 2/9/23, 5:35 PM
I think it would be a mistake to switch to trucking right now, as despite delays with no end in sight, it does feel like some substantial use of automated driving in the commercial driving industry is coming eventually. I would expect that to reduce the market value of drivers. If someone wanted to become a truck driver, I'd say he'd better do it for the love rather than the money. Even though both careers are going to get shaken up, it's still a lot easier to make six figures in software for now.
In general, I roll my eyes when politicians suggest that people who lose their jobs due to industries shifting out from under them can just go learn new skills and get back on track. I haven't seen that happen. It feels like a pat on the back as you're shoving them out the door.
by PaulHoule on 2/9/23, 5:08 PM