by hzlatar on 12/21/22, 11:38 AM with 62 comments
by psychphysic on 12/21/22, 1:59 PM
I'd be the first to deride Russia's military effectiveness. But consider that the vast majority of the world is against them largely on every single front. And you see why they've earned their reputation as a super power.
Russia is big with plenty of fossils. They could ruin the world simply by continuing to use their fossil fuels without regard to climate change.
They could nuke themselves.
They could conduct a few missile tests in space and precipitate a Kessler syndrome situation.
They could trade nuclear secrets for more kamikazi drones.
Do you see where I'm going?
If you want Russia destroyed they you are asking for a world war. Peace requires we put up with them and encourage all governments to work for global health.
by defrost on 12/21/22, 2:00 PM
..a stupendous liar with a remarkable memory [2]
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/25/milosevictrial...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trial_of_Henry_Kissinger
by hulitu on 12/21/22, 1:02 PM
tells the guy not known for avoiding wars.
by jamincan on 12/21/22, 12:58 PM
Kissinger's framework for understanding the world is still rooted in an outdated cold war mentality and this article seems like he is naively trying to shove the cat back in the bag and return to a paradigm that he felt he understood.
But I don't think we can return to the way things were. Russia's hegemony over its neighbours was not because of its nuclear power, but because of its military power, which it has demonstrated is considerably weaker than we had previously understood. I think this conflict has actually weakened the power of a nuclear arsenal considerably compared to conventional military strength, because it really has no strategic use beyond nuclear deterrence.
by ProjectArcturis on 12/21/22, 2:08 PM
The deal he proposes is that Russia returns to the pre-2022 borders, and Ukraine joins NATO. That second point is critical, because without that protection by Western powers, Russia would surely rearm and reinvade Ukraine in a few years.
The alternative is that the war continues for several years, until Putin finally loses the will to fight, or is overthrown. That latter prospect, while initially appealing, would almost certainly result in a new leader who is just as aggressive, but more effective and less isolated.
Or, potentially, Russia itself might break up under the strain of prolonged war. We've never had a civil war in a nuclear power, but if you think that has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention so far.
by ElfinTrousers on 12/21/22, 12:36 PM
by dandare on 12/21/22, 1:44 PM