by koyanisqatsi on 11/4/22, 7:06 PM with 125 comments
by hn_throwaway_99 on 11/4/22, 7:29 PM
> Last week, Bank of New Zealand warned that “things could well and truly turn to custard” as the global economy is plunged into recession.
I read that and thought "Holy hell, central bankers in the US are usually extremely measured in their comments, they would never say something like 'things could well and truly turn to custard'". I misunderstood, thinking that "Bank of New Zealand" is their central bank. It's just another big bank, not "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand", which is their actual central bank.
by jamesvnz on 11/4/22, 7:24 PM
I'm sure he's a capable economist, but based on what I see, New Zealand is not "plunging". There's definitely a slow down - but I think most businesses are expecting a relatively soft landing.
I guess time will tell.
by vosper on 11/4/22, 8:16 PM
This post is wrong, we're not in a recessionary spiral. Households (and banks!) are overall doing fine. Unemployment is at record lows, wages are rising faster than inflation, non-performing (ie in default) mortgages are at 0.2% of all mortgages (lower than GFC), mortgages are stress-tested to higher levels than we're seeing. Banks are extremely healthy (making money hand over fist).
Consumer confidence is low, but it's low in defiance of reality.
For more see here: https://thekaka.substack.com/p/incomes-are-rising-faster-tha...
by hedora on 11/4/22, 7:39 PM
In the US, that'd definitely lead to a housing crisis worse than 2008. Is there something different about how houses are purchased in NZ?
by abeppu on 11/4/22, 7:40 PM
by Waterluvian on 11/4/22, 7:16 PM
by jeffbee on 11/4/22, 7:27 PM
https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/get-chart.php?y=2022&m=9&n=35...
by pessimizer on 11/4/22, 7:51 PM
The only data in this is at the end, and it is not particularly interesting. NZ homeowners will be affected by rising interest rates.
by damiankennedy on 11/4/22, 8:34 PM
by jesuscript on 11/4/22, 8:17 PM
“Keep buying those mortgage backed loans”, for example
“Keep those interest rates near zero”
What do they have at stake?
by mmazing on 11/4/22, 7:31 PM
I'm certainly no expert in all of this, how does that stack up with other countries data?