from Hacker News

Paul Graham predicts food shortages

by simonster on 3/28/22, 6:02 PM with 48 comments

by khazhoux on 3/28/22, 6:41 PM
This is a low-content post.
A political activist/commentator anecdotally tells his Twitter followers that his family is cutting back their farming because of fertilizer and diesel costs, and then predicts a food shortage. PG then replies "Yes".
by el_nahual on 3/28/22, 6:35 PM
Somebody replied with:
> It only makes sense not to plant if you think you won't be able to make up the cost of the fertilizer when you sell your crop. If there are shortages, food prices will go through the roof. Farmers who decide not to plant are implicitly predicting that there will not be shortages.
Which...seems like quite solid logic.
by wing-_-nuts on 3/28/22, 6:43 PM
I'm not sure I should care about PG's hot take. Get me an agricultural economist to explain why the market isn't pricing this in and providing the proper incentives to farmers across the world? Food prices will no doubt be higher, but outside of third world countries that can't afford the higher price (and thus will need to be helped with food aid), I can't see widespread shortages in the developed world.
by aaronbrethorst on 3/28/22, 6:37 PM
This was literally on the front page of the NYT a week ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/world/americas/ukraine-wa...
by paxys on 3/28/22, 6:40 PM
The agricultural industry already relies heavily on government subsidies to survive. Trump paid $30 billion+ to farmers to make up for Chinese tariffs imposed during his trade war. It isn't as much at the mercy of market movements as people think.
It's also funny to see over the last few years how billionaire Silicon Valley VCs and programmers are declaring themselves the voice of middle America. Show me a report from the USDA or some economists over PG's anecdote about his "farmer friend".
by gkoberger on 3/28/22, 6:41 PM
I hate when interviewers ask "Do you think X?" and the interviewee mildly agrees, and then it's framed as "X said Y".
PG is really, really good with words. There's no reason to put words in his mouth. This title leaves out the word "may" from the original question, as well.
He's not predicting food shortages, he's saying yes to someone asking if it "may" happen.
by elihu on 3/28/22, 6:50 PM
> "A farmer friend told me the same thing is happening in the UK. The cost of fertilizer has gone up so much due to the Ukraine War that some farmers are not even planting."
Actually, fertilizer shortages were already a thing before the war started. As I understand it, it's related to high costs of natural gas (which is used to make some types of fertilizer). Also, Russia is a major exporter of fertilizer and they've been restricting exports for awhile (possibly to secure their own food supply).
The war in Ukraine certainly doesn't help the food situation though. Ukraine is a major food producer. It seems like the world on track for some expensive food for the next year or so, which will disproportionately affect people from poorer countries.
by andi999 on 3/28/22, 6:42 PM
I read somewhere here and there, that companies making fertilizer produced much less since last year. This was due to the high(er) energy prices which didnt allow them to make profit; also due to how the contracts were structured, the price was fixed, so increasing price was not an option, but no-delivery due to high energy costs was somehow permitted.
Since way too little fertilizer was produced, nothing can be done currently, prices for retail fertilizers go up, but the shortage is real.
Take this post with a big grain of salt, I do not have solid sources.
by exdsq on 3/28/22, 6:48 PM
Ukraine is the fifth largest producer of wheat and has reduced crop sizes due to the war. This is being offset by other producers like Egypt increasing production because there's a market incentive to do so. Will this result in a food shortage? Technically, yes. Will this result in some sort of noticeable food shortage? Probably not, unless people start talking about it and causes people to buy an unusually high amount of food resulting in a self-fulfilled prophecy. Will that be catastrophic? Almost certainly not, it'll be like Covid again when preppers buy all the pasta for a few weeks - an inconvenience.
What is the absolute worst advice to give? To tell people to go out and prepare. That will cause issues.
by cwkoss on 3/28/22, 6:51 PM
Our food system is a mess. We need to transition our agricultural systems to use biology rather than chemistry to nourish our food crops. The technology is there, we just haven't figured out how to industrialize it at scale. I personally think robotics will fill this gap - as the main prohibitive factor now is labor availability.
Check out permaculture techniques like: composting, chop and drop, wood chip mulching, no till, Korean natural farming techniques using indigenous microorganisms.
Collapse has been inevitable. Wiping farmland clean, trying to sterilize it, and restarting the next year is incredibly wasteful and has only been feasible because of heavy subsidies at several levels in the upstream supply chain.
by calyth2018 on 3/29/22, 3:22 PM
It's not that surprising.
Taiwanese commentators on both sides of their political aisles have noted that Ukraine and Russia are both exporters of food and fertilizer.
According to them, both exports will be severely affected. Buyers of food from Ukraine (and probably Russia) would be Middle East and Africa. Fertilizer prices will keep going up.
Effects of the war is most likely affect the poor in the middle east and africa the most. We'll probably see more inflated prices instead of outright shortages.
by openasocket on 3/28/22, 6:48 PM
It's weird that he's talking about this entirely in terms of fertilizer prices and not the fact that Ukraine and Russia are both export large amounts of food.
by acidburnNSA on 3/28/22, 6:39 PM
Doomberg is saying similar things [1] with some pretty deep analysis behind it.
[1] https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink
Doomberg is a cartoon green chicken with a quasi-anonymous group of heavy industrialist business consultants behind it. The content is pretty fantastic. Kind of strange, but, well, here we are.
by legitster on 3/28/22, 6:48 PM
I have a hard time believing this will be as severe as what we saw during Covid.
If you are expecting shortages, it should be in your interest to spend more now to capitalize on them. Especially if you expect inflation!
Unless a) you are worried about price controls in the future, b) you are a small-time farmer and averse or unable to take on debt.
by sharemywin on 3/28/22, 6:17 PM
I wonder if the bird flu outbreak will affect the demand for crops?
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20220323/half-a-mill...
by throwmeariver1 on 3/28/22, 7:03 PM
If there are shortages and people in developed countries will hunger it’s for government to step in with regulations about wasting food. Last year we had 40% of food in America thrown away. There won’t be a drop of 40% in food production because of the war in Ukraine not even close to it.
by dqpb on 3/28/22, 6:55 PM
> The cost of fertilizer has gone up so much due to the Ukraine War that some farmers are not even planting.
The rising fertilizer cost and impending food shortage has been in discussion since 2021 due to the global supply chain crisis. Surely the reason for it now is not suddenly because of Ukraine.
by programmarchy on 3/28/22, 7:12 PM
It's interesting to see a Tweet by the founder of YC get flagged on HN.
by exdsq on 3/28/22, 6:39 PM
On a related note, I predict Russia invades Ukraine
by disambiguation on 3/28/22, 7:06 PM
I mean yeah Biden already said this days ago:
https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1507052235192254472
by TrispusAttucks on 3/28/22, 6:23 PM
Predication? It's been obvious for weeks (months?). The POTUS just mentioned it in his speech several days ago. Food shortages are coming to America.
"It’s going to be real" ~ Joe Biden
China has been stock piling food reserves for years. That's a strong signal.