by yblu on 10/23/21, 6:57 PM with 485 comments
by dang on 10/23/21, 8:11 PM
Flexport CEO on how to fix the US supply chain crisis - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28957379 - Oct 2021 (225 comments)
by ilwu_member on 10/23/21, 11:28 PM
The zoning change is for TEU storage outside the port. The port itself was not subject to that rule.
The Port of Los Angeles is a landlord and is not directly involved in operations.
Private companies, such as APM, EverPort, and others, rent piers/berths and are responsible for the actual operations and logistics.
Some speculation: recently I’ve heard of some ships not even waiting to load empty TEU’s as they normally would and instead they are immediately leaving for China, literally empty. I suspect this behavior is what turned the congestion we had before into the quasi deadlock we have now.
by aerosmile on 10/23/21, 8:16 PM
But why stop there? Ryan suggested 5 courses of actions, and made it clear that we need to act on all of them at the same time. So far only the first of those 5 steps have been acted on. The rest of the steps are likely either bad or the people needed to act on them are doing that NIH bullshit (which I can understand to some extent given how much negativity is being directed at Robert Garcia). But negativity or not, if those are good suggestions, we need to act on them. Would love to hear any thoughts on how to mobilize support for quickly validating/invalidating those suggestions, and then acting accordingly.
If it's possible to cancel brands and individuals, it should be possible to do the same with politicians as well. I hope it doesn't turn out that we care more about certain individuals' views than the prevention of a nationwide and potentially even global crisis [1].
[1] From Ryan's tweet:
> I can't stress enough how bad it is for the world economy if the ports don't work. Every company selling physical goods bought or sold internationally will fail. The circulatory system our globalized economy depends has collapsed. And thanks to the negative feedback loops involved, it's getting worse not better every day that goes by..
by Animats on 10/23/21, 8:25 PM
Allowing stacking over 2 high is only useful if you have the equipment to stack over 2 high. A place that just stacks empty containers 2 high probably only has large forklifts. The special equipment for high stacking is far more expensive, and only bought if you need it.[2]
A more useful proposal is a "peel pile".[3] This is a system which assigns outgoing trucks an easily accessible container to deliver, rather than a specific container that has to be retrieved. There's an app for that. This is being implemented by IMC, the largest marine drayage company in the US. They say they're already up to 8 high stacks in the LA area. The higher the stack, the longer the retrieval time.
"This keeps drivers moving and productive, even if they don’t know the exact load they’re getting or the delivery location." So it's really dumping the sorting problem on drivers. They have no idea where they're going next. There has to be some way to separate containers by approximate location to make this work, so a driver knows how far they're going to be asked to take the thing.
How well this all works depends on how well the software organizing the stacking works.
[1] https://jalopnik.com/the-streets-of-los-angeles-are-overflow...
[2] https://www.bison-jacks.com/why-bison/blog/how-to-lift-a-shi...
by hn_throwaway_99 on 10/23/21, 8:07 PM
by codezero on 10/23/21, 8:25 PM
by asplake on 10/23/21, 8:23 PM
“When you're designing an operation you must choose your bottleneck. If the bottleneck appears somewhere that you didn't choose it, you aren't running an operation. It's running you.”
https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1451543795045183490?s=2...
by eecc on 10/24/21, 6:58 AM
The rest of the systems’ profits and sustainability seem to be secondary.
Perhaps it might make sense to ponder if this super-lean truck-centric infrastructure wasn’t running too close to its breaking point?
Might be a good idea for big-gov to lend a hand but also impose some top-down decisions like: long term you will be rebasing your logistics onto a railroad based backbone.
There, and you’ve magically created a couple thousands well paying jobs in infrastructure build and maintenance…
Also call some operations researcher to copypaste a couple tiered caching algorithms onto this mess.
by destitude on 10/23/21, 8:17 PM
by specialist on 10/24/21, 2:01 AM
IIRC shipping recycled material was super cheap. So many empty containers. Might as well fill them with something.
Why aren't empty containers shipped back to China? Boat has to go back anyway, right?
Did the empty containers pile up because no one was willing to pay to ship them back?
by hk1337 on 10/24/21, 12:04 AM
by sschueller on 10/23/21, 8:37 PM
by IronWolve on 10/23/21, 11:13 PM
Tweet thread @ https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1451543776992845834
Or threadreader
by krisoft on 10/23/21, 8:12 PM
by robocat on 10/25/21, 12:29 AM
by synaesthesisx on 10/24/21, 12:55 AM
by unethical_ban on 10/24/21, 12:01 AM
* The most capital intensive process of your business should be the bottleneck.
* When you find a bottleneck not of your making, overwhelm it.
by CodeWriter23 on 10/24/21, 4:15 PM
Some facts:
1) Container Height: 8'6". Add approx 4" for the lift slots on the bottom.
2) Forklift with 22' lift available from Sunbelt = 3 Container Height / 50% increase in yard capacity https://www.sunbeltrentals.com/equipment/detail/1044/0550320...
3) Common "construction" type forklift with 39' lift from United Rentals = 4 Container Height / 100% increase in yard capacity. https://www.unitedrentals.com/marketplace/equipment/forklift...
And United has forklifts with even higher reach available.
by adam_arthur on 10/23/21, 7:55 PM
Logistics can be somewhat thought of as a flow problem.
If demand far exceeds supply, and both supply and demand stay constant, the backlog will continue to get worse in severity over time.
For the problem to get better, either demand has to decline, or supply has to increase. However, the ability to expand supply seems limited in the short term. E.g. how long does it take to improve port throughput, or build new container ships?
Translating to the real world, think every ship stuck at the port removes another ship/containers from being able to pick up new goods which creates a self reinforcing problem.
Or thought another way, if the port can only unload 10,000 containers a day, and 20,000 containers a day are showing up, the number of backlogged containers will increase linearly with time.
Just yesterday we hit a record number of ships backlogged at the CA port, so I suspect this is exactly the situation we're in.
The free market will eventually solve by either supply throughput breakthroughs, or prices continuing to rise until demand destruction kicks in.
I want to lay a few stats out here. Retail sales has been ~20% elevated from 2019 levels since the pandemic started, primarily due to government benefits/stimulus checks.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSXFS
Some is due to spending habits changing, but that's likely a smaller portion.
Check real personal income over the course of the pandemic.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI
Enhanced UI has ended, but it seems consumers are relying on credit now to maintain the same level of spending. It's not clear how long this will last, but it could be months, judging by the consumer loan data here.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CONSUMER
Note that many consumers paid off debts with the stimulus, is why this chart dips at the end. But we're quickly climbing back. Given lower interest rates, it's likely this can persist a few more months at current trend.
I suspect this will end organically whenever consumer credit is maxed out, and demand falls. But at the same time, wages are increasing fairly rapidly now... Is it possible higher wages can continue to support this new level of demand?
Probably in part, but not entirely.
by reilly3000 on 10/23/21, 9:36 PM
by honksillet on 10/23/21, 11:27 PM
by jussy on 10/24/21, 11:38 AM
by rcpt on 10/24/21, 12:02 AM
by willmadden on 10/23/21, 9:34 PM
by peter_retief on 10/24/21, 5:54 AM
by e12e on 10/24/21, 2:13 PM
What does this mean? The individual containers are owned by carriers?
Could this be allieveted also by agreements between carriers (or a merger)?
Or is there some other reason containers are "sticky" to carriers?
by mkl95 on 10/23/21, 10:36 PM
by orangepurple on 10/23/21, 8:55 PM
by pontifier on 10/25/21, 4:40 PM
by Ekaros on 10/24/21, 12:26 AM
by m0zg on 10/23/21, 11:39 PM
by rajacombinator on 10/24/21, 3:09 AM
by thoughty on 10/24/21, 5:04 AM
PS: I am not based in the US
by aakkaarr on 10/24/21, 7:23 AM
by micro_cam on 10/23/21, 7:37 PM
by Kye on 10/23/21, 8:42 PM
by dboreham on 10/23/21, 8:15 PM
by burlesona on 10/23/21, 7:26 PM
Zoning as practiced in the US may be the most pervasive, banal evil in the country. It kills our GDP[1], is a major driver of racial inequity[2], increases wealth inequality[3], and creates car-dependency which has horrible public health impacts[4].
Yet somehow nearly no one in America is aware of this or concerned about it. I wish I understood why that is.
But I’m not surprised to learn that LA area land use regulation is a major contributor to the dysfunction at the port.
1. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388
2. https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/9/18/the-local-case...
by throwaway9870 on 10/23/21, 10:32 PM
by IAmGraydon on 10/23/21, 11:02 PM
by destitude on 10/23/21, 8:10 PM
by csee on 10/23/21, 7:20 PM
by vallard on 10/24/21, 12:37 AM
by jgalt212 on 10/23/21, 11:22 PM
by karaterobot on 10/23/21, 9:02 PM
Had me up to this point. Let's not do ALL the ideas, let's have someone with authority and decision making skills make a judgment call with the best information available at the time. I assume he really means "all the best ideas", but it's worth saying that we shouldn't panic and just do anything someone yells loudly.
by ConcernedCoder on 10/23/21, 8:39 PM
by _3u10 on 10/23/21, 7:27 PM
The best part is every container impounded in the US is a drain on destinations that aren’t in the US like Europe.