by hiddencache on 9/6/21, 1:59 AM with 241 comments
by no_wizard on 9/6/21, 4:03 AM
> Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the elites due to the absence of labour. The inequalities we see today both within and between countries already point to such disparities. For example, the top 10% of global income earners are responsible for almost as much total greenhouse gas emissions as the bottom 90% combined. Similarly, about half the world’s population lives on less than $3 per day[0][1]
This is from 2017. This has gotten, in my view, much worse and is not continuing to alleviate itself, and I believe climate change is only making this worse over the next 5-10 years as wealthier nations and their wealthiest citizens try to insulate themselves further from its effects at the expense or perceived expense of the poor. I don’t think the current political climate is going to prove its sustainable.
Couple that with serious economic pressures as in part, a result of globalization and coming shortages and issues of natural resources and it’s a recipe for real disaster
[0]: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20170418-how-western-civi...
[1]: https://academic.oup.com/nsr/article/3/4/470/2669331/Modelin...
by bluejekyll on 9/6/21, 4:08 AM
I stopped reading right here. The Western Empire fell in 476 (for many reasons). The Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantine Empire) lasted until 1453. Even that isn’t a perfect way of articulating it, given the continued influence of the Catholic Church had well into the 1500’s (Luther).
In some ways one could argue civilization has never ended, but paused in different areas of the world. Also, taking a myopic view on civilization focused on the western civilization ignores the inter-continental trade that existed around Africa, Asia and Europe, doesn’t seem fair to the history.
I know that’s a reductive argument, but I do think global civilization has been continually making progress, all be it with some slow downs and set backs along the way. Yes some empires went away, but we still read writings from Ancient Greece, so is it correct to say even that civilization ended?
Long way of saying, “no” but things might change, and it could be uncomfortable for a while.
by BurningFrog on 9/6/21, 4:29 AM
The Christians have done it for 20 centuries now, as one example.
During my life, it has always been a common expectation, though the expected cause has shifted a few times.
My hunch is that maybe we're hard wired to expect the world to end, for some undiscovered reason.
Again, I remind you of my amateur status!
by mikewarot on 9/6/21, 4:01 AM
If we get another FDR style reset, things should be good for a generation or two, if not... the horrors of history will rhyme once again.
Edit/Update: The New Deal provided a social safety net which greatly relieve the inequality that ripped apart Germany and other countries.
It also provided the infrastructure that just happened to make it much easier to out-manufacture the rest of the world in WWII, and benefitted society for decades later.
by thwor234234 on 9/6/21, 4:29 AM
For the latter part of the past-decade Hubbert's theory was rubbished because of new supplies from fracking and tar-sands, but the basic hypothesis: that there is a finite supply of cheap oil remains.
There is little doubt that this resource will run out soon, putting an end to cheap transport, cheap agri (fertilizers, mechanization), and pretty much everything else we take for granted in the new 'modern' world.
It's unclear how the world can support 10B population in this scenario, even taking into account the developments in electric and hydrogen vehicles etc. In fact, one wonders if the first world will be worse off because of its extreme reliance on this.
This is a far bigger reason for the eco push, much more so than Global Warming IMO.
by Mengkudulangsat on 9/6/21, 4:09 AM
Just imagine the atmosphere at that workplace, must've been very heavy and brooding.
by Santosh83 on 9/6/21, 3:54 AM
by hughrr on 9/6/21, 4:04 AM
On a microscopic view of a single life, at best we can cross our fingers and hope that we live through a calm bit.
by imoverclocked on 9/6/21, 4:00 AM
by ttonkytonk on 9/6/21, 5:06 AM
There's also this strange idea that government itself is a bad thing (from Thomas Payne's Common Sense?), when the problem would be bad government. Someone has to make the big decisions, so if it's not the government, then presumably it's whoever has the most power?
Then there is the general abandonment of spiritual values in the west? (If you think the U. S. is a religious country, just try getting Sundays off - I probably didn't get hired at a grocery store once because of this - in the Carolinas.)
by ramesh31 on 9/6/21, 6:47 AM
by dragonelite on 9/6/21, 4:46 AM
I do feel that Europe will probably find its own way after the collapse and the US will go from a global hegemon to a regional super power. A collapse of the west is still decades ahead of the average state of being in the global south.
by jacknews on 9/6/21, 6:09 AM
Since China currently make almost everything, that could certainly cause some collapse-like symptoms, as key equipment becomes unavailable. Just look at some of the covid supply-chain issues for a taste.
by streamofdigits on 9/6/21, 7:44 AM
The political system that produces governance is in itself a piece of social technology (set of laws, procedures, morals, behaviors etc) and it can easily become unfit-for-purpose. Why? because one of its primary tasks is to perpetuate an existing order. If it overdoes this "stabilization" task (that is, ignores material shifts in reality) it can hold society hostage. That period of disconnect between what society needs and what its organizational tech is offering can feel gut-wrenching and surreal.
All of the dysfunctions of the current era, e.g. environmental un-sustainability, absurd levels of inequality, rampant surveillance capitalism are well recognized and studied and, by-and-large, blueprints for solutions exist. Dig to find what is standing in the way and it is invariably i) an aged male politician and/or corporate leader who ii) has built a long career over decades knitting power networks with similar "winners" of his generation iii) is incapable of reinventing / invalidating himself and iv) will only be forced away from the cookie jar.
Maybe what is happening is not civilizational collapse but enormous resources and human talent (world-wide) are hostage to near idiotic (as in: non-adapted) political arrangements.
by ambientenv on 9/6/21, 11:34 AM
by jstimpfle on 9/6/21, 8:16 AM
by FiggyPudding on 9/6/21, 4:55 AM
"as government loses control of its monopoly on violence."
but I can't articulate why...
Maybe something to do with a comparison to organized crime as a competition to a (possibly separately corrupt) government?
by esarbe on 9/6/21, 9:33 AM
I think people are a) hard-wired to expect the tomorrow to be the same as the today and b) socially trained to just keep our heads down and not stir the pot, even in face of calamity.
Because of a) and b) we're still - as a society - acting as if everything was fine and so we continue to ignore the real and present danger of a total systemic collapse.
by raxxorrax on 9/6/21, 2:21 PM
by 8bitsrule on 9/6/21, 5:37 AM
by kierkegaard7 on 9/6/21, 5:35 AM
by hermitsings on 9/6/21, 3:54 AM
by shadilay on 9/6/21, 4:31 AM
by bg117 on 9/6/21, 4:41 AM
by coldtea on 9/6/21, 7:25 AM
by Subsentient on 9/6/21, 4:19 AM
It's been obvious for years, at least to anyone in my circle. Even my boss has said as much. We can feel it in our bones. Things are getting worse, not better, and it's accelerating.
We did this to ourselves, with our own greed and indifference, and now it's time to reap our rewards. Even now, rich nations are hoarding vaccines for themselves.
We have learned nothing and we will learn nothing, until it is too late.
by cyberpsybin on 9/6/21, 5:02 AM
by UWillOwnNothing on 9/6/21, 4:00 AM
by anovikov on 9/6/21, 4:10 AM
Similarly, i can't see a problem with East/West divide. "Eastearn" civilisations are rising only as long as they adopt Western principles. It's not as much of a disadvantage of a Western civilisation, it's simply that it's losing it's exclusive position, because it WON: there is no alternative to market capitalism in today's world, no one even pretends there is.
There are alternatives to democracy, but success rate of democracy is a mixed bag in the West itself, and it may be simply an outdated form of government for the post-industrial world, and universal democracy where everyone votes was a short (<100 years) experiment anyway, so it's not a big deal if it ends. Democracy the way it was implemented in 200 years ago USA when 3% of people - actual stakeholders - could vote, would be the most sustainable form of government today, and it's more or less the way China is governed (where 6-7% of population are in the Party and can meaningfully vote).
by CryptoPunk on 9/6/21, 5:03 AM
Beyond that, the interconnectedness mentioned in the article allows hysterias to spread globally at an alarming rate. By some estimates, the reaction to covid did 100X more damage to society than it mitigated:
http://www.sfu.ca/~allen/LockdownReport.pdf
We saw childhood obesity rates skyrocket:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2783690
Education attainment levels plummet:
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-leadi...
But the hysteria surrounding covid has made any kind of rational discussion on the costs of covid mitigation strategies impossible.