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Show HN: Never be 100% sure cuz that's overfitting

by zipotm on 4/19/21, 6:08 PM with 3 comments

• by pizza on 4/19/21, 7:06 PM

  That's Cromwell's rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwell%27s_rule

  If your prior is 0 then you can't do Bayes updates

• by minimaxir on 4/19/21, 6:12 PM

  That's not a good joke even from a statistical modeling perspective. Logistic models can absolutely make predictions with 100% confidence.