from Hacker News

Interest surges in top colleges, while struggling ones scrape for applicants

by smaslennikov on 2/23/21, 3:05 PM with 398 comments

  • by awillen on 2/23/21, 3:38 PM

    I think this is generally a good thing. I believe there are really two positive things that can come out of going to college - either you get a name-brand degree that opens doors and gets your resume looked at, or you get useful skills that enable you to go down a particular career path (e.g. CS degree). Obviously in some cases it'll be both.

    The reality is it's really tough to make any case that a humanities degree from a lower or even mid-tier college is a worthwhile investment of money and time. Now obviously there are scholarships and students who come from wealth for whom this is less of an issue, but to pay tens of thousands of dollars a year for a degree in classics from third tier U is just an objectively bad choice for most people.

    Hopefully this is the market working - people are learning how to value educational degrees based on what they'll actually yield financially and making decisions accordingly. Those schools that are providing substantial negative value to their students ought to go under, and the students who would attend them and end up in huge debt with minimal job prospects will make a better investment, like working for four years, going to a trade school, etc.

  • by BitwiseFool on 2/23/21, 3:47 PM

    I sense that the fundamental purpose for going to College has changed from "getting an education" to "building your brand" as an individual. I don't work in Human Resources, but as a software developer I do spend a lot of time around my company's recruiters and I'm involved in the hiring process. A candidate's alma mater has an outsized impact on the likelihood they will advance to the next step of the hiring process.

    Most people people don't realize just how much name recognition matters when sifting through resumes. We get hundreds of applications and it's a fact that candidates from well known schools are selected to advance more often than candidates from obscure schools. School prestige and name recognition acts as a proxy assessment of the candidate. HR just doesn't look into how good the Computer Science program is at "Keene State College". But they do know that if someone went to Princeston or Stanford they must be pretty smart. To be clear, a degree from an obscure university does not disqualify someone, but it does put them at a disadvantage when the applicant pool is large.

  • by fossuser on 2/23/21, 3:33 PM

    Makes sense to me - if you’re mostly buying prestige that gets concentrated in the top institutions.

    If you’re trying to buy education the others are overpriced.

  • by lumost on 2/23/21, 3:31 PM

    Colleges should have more price stratification than they do. At present the price difference between MIT and Umass Amherst out of state is only 41%. Both will leave a student heavily in debt to the tune of 150-300k, the difference likely doesn't materially matter to the student as they are looking at is as a ticket to a better life.
  • by Animats on 2/23/21, 6:18 PM

    Well, of course. Going to college during the epidemic is not cost effective. Many colleges are trying to charge full on-campus prices while delivering "distance learning". Better to wait a year and get the full experience.
  • by Taylor_OD on 2/23/21, 4:08 PM

    There are a lot of people in this thread talking about how important a big name college is. As a counterpoint... If you are not trying to work for a FANG company within your first ~3 years of graduating I don't think a big name college with a great CS program matters at all.

    A Carnegie Mellon degree may help you get more interviews and therefore land your first job if you are struggling otherwise but its likely the person with the Kent State CS degree and the Illinois Urbana Champaign CE degree are not applying for the same jobs right out of school.

    After the first few years education becomes less important and actual skills become far more important. Again this is more true at non FANG/SV/Start up type companies. Which is where most engineers will work for the majority of their career.

  • by solosoyokaze on 2/23/21, 3:55 PM

    Smart hiring managers in this industry know that college doesn't matter and that one good Github project > any degree. I've not once taken someone's schooling into consideration while interviewing and I've hired dozens of people.

    I'm not saying don't go to school if that's what you want to do, but you can easily get a much better return on your investment if you "buy" some time to work on OSS. That being said, it's a lot harder to do if you have no money since you can't get a government loan to cover your expenses. UBI would be very helpful here.

  • by akeck on 2/23/21, 3:45 PM

    Meanwhile, total enrollment (US) has been falling steadily since at least 2012: https://www.npr.org/2020/12/17/925831720/losing-a-generation...
  • by gnicholas on 2/23/21, 9:55 PM

    This isn't terribly surprising given the degree of substitutability between very inexpensive community colleges (or state schools like CSUs here in California) and mid/lower-tier privates.

    Pre-pandemic, going to college away from home offered a fun environment with many amenities. During the pandemic, these fun aspects are greatly limited (and parents might not let kids go anyway, due to health risks). When you take away so much of the fun stuff that goes along with college, it doesn't make as much sense to pay $50k/yr in tuition when the experience isn't that much different than your local state school (which costs $10k).

    Top colleges, on the other hand, still offer differentiation in terms of degree prestige. Add onto that the promise of not taking standardized tests into account (as the article notes Cornell and other schools are doing this), and it's not surprising that applications are up.

  • by musicale on 2/23/21, 9:53 PM

    Given the incredible scarcity of academic jobs and huge surplus of Ph.D. graduates, I'd be surprised if even relatively unknown schools in the middle of nowhere couldn't attract hundreds of highly qualified applicants.

    Landing a faculty job at any university - public or private - is an extraordinary achievement.

  • by kbos87 on 2/23/21, 9:41 PM

    As someone who never did well with standardized tests, it’s frustrating to see evidence like this of how heavily they are still weighed in the college admissions process, even though it isn’t surprising.

    If I were applying to universities today and had otherwise good credentials but difficulties performing on standardized tests like the SATs, I wouldn’t feel an ounce of remorse for trying to cheat in a rigged system.

  • by stolenmerch on 2/23/21, 3:51 PM

    Relevant: https://www.profgalloway.com/uss-university

    Scott Galloway made a prediction last summer of what colleges and universities will thrive, survive, struggle, or face challenges given the current situation. Basically, the higher ed market will consolidate around more elite schools.

  • by fiftyfifty on 2/24/21, 3:38 AM

    Higher Education is about to go through a brutal consolidation process, people have been predicting it for years. Even before Covid-19, small liberal arts schools were starting to close down. Demand for higher education is going to drop over the next decade because the number of graduating high schoolers in the US is about to drop and has already been dropping simply because the birth rate 20 years ago was lower. There are certainly other factors accelerating this trend such as fewer high school graduates going to college these days due to the increasing cost of tuition. In the end there will be a lot of schools fighting over a decreasing number of applicants and the top schools will be the ones likely to come out the winners.

    https://www.npr.org/2019/12/16/787909495/fewer-students-are-...

  • by barrenko on 2/23/21, 3:45 PM

    Wherever you get more value out of the final certificate than the education involved, you are participating in systemic fraud and a bubble that will eventually pop.
  • by dvdhnt on 2/23/21, 10:51 PM

    Not very surprising, is it?

    Right or wrong, "top" colleges are considered better equipped to get you close to the wealth and power needed to live comfortably.

    This isn't much different from travelers going west and buying claims in search of gold.

    Almost the entire collegiate system in the US is fundamentally broken. It is siloed and just as much pay-to-play as the rest of this country. The soaring costs, low returns, and behemoth mis-allocation of resources towards college football are examples of this.

  • by swiley on 2/23/21, 3:39 PM

    Maybe if they charged reasonable prices they'd have more applicants. The university I went to let you go for free if you kept a 4.0 GPA and had high SAT scores.
  • by endisneigh on 2/23/21, 3:51 PM

    per usual I believe the issue here is that the government has been subsidizing schools which have created strange distortions. if Harvard were strictly private and received no government subsidies, funding or advantage a few things would happen:

    1) poor people probably wouldn't be able to attend

    2) it would be substantially more expensive

    3) the acceptance rate would be much higher

    ideally this would result in schools like UMass Amherst (which ironically is the best public university in Massachusetts - weird considering other states have better state flagships, but that's another issue) being able to compete far more effectively.

    why would a smart poor kid ever go to UMass when you could go to Harvard for free? it has never made sense that you get better financial return from say, MIT, even though it costs the same as RandomPrivateU.

  • by sputknick on 2/23/21, 8:57 PM

    What could we do with college campuses assuming some proportion of them go out of business in the coming years/decades? It would make for an immediate walkable city with all the infrastructure already built out.
  • by twoslide on 2/23/21, 3:50 PM

    This probably just reflects greater uncertainty in the application process due to lack of standardized test scores. In other years, have a better sense of where they stand and can strategize appropriately (i.e. a few aspirational applications and a few safety schools). This year things are much less clear. It may not be a long term trend, or may not accelerate a long term trend.
  • by boatsie on 2/23/21, 8:17 PM

    It would be interesting if colleges offered a reduced or free tuition in exchange for future earnings. That might incentivize colleges to only offer certain degrees, help with job placements, keep the quality of learning high, etc.
  • by peter303 on 2/23/21, 7:43 PM

    The article doesn't mention the demographic bomb in the US. 2019 births were 3.7 million. boomers were 4 million a year; would need to be 7 million to be proportional to the population then. 2020 and 2021m births are projected to be as low as 3 million due to pandemic nears.

    In addition to low births, student immigration has been severely restricted in recent years by federal policy.

    With both factors, the applicant pool is smaller.

  • by seibelj on 2/23/21, 3:40 PM

    > Even before the pandemic, Dr. Baldridge said, “the rich were getting richer and the poor were getting more and more challenged, in terms of institutions.”

    Framing this as “rich” vs. “poor” is ridiculous. These “poor” institutions were charging 6 figure sums for a piece of paper. There is nothing beneficial to society by having a lot of unwanted institutions who charge insane amounts that no one wants to go to voluntarily anymore. High Ed needed a shakeout and I’m happy it’s finally happening.

  • by neonate on 2/23/21, 6:09 PM

  • by verst on 2/23/21, 8:37 PM

    I still don't understand why college degrees are necessary for the majority of jobs in the US other than a surplus of college educated folks. This is particularly problematic given the high cost of education.

    The entire post secondary education system in Germany is focused on specialization in a given field of study (at universities) or vocational training. The advantage here is that there is no financial penalty for choosing the wrong path, only missed opportunity cost due to time spent.

    I completed my secondary school in Germany at a typical Gymnasium (the highest tier of the three major secondary school types). Note that my parents did not attend college and aren't wealthy. Around 8th grade my school curriculum exceeded their knowledge. I attended a private liberal arts college in the US as an international student where I relied on (private) scholarships and (private) loans [international students cannot get subsidized loans -- generally interest rates are high and interest accumulates even while enrolled in school].

    The only reason why I chose to attend university was because I wanted to gain an advanced understanding of mathematics and I aspired to one day become a college professor (this has since changed of course).

    Despite my school being very highly ranked and my hard work producing good academic results it simply did not have the brand reputation to unlock opportunities such as even being invited to phone screens. I had to take a roundabout way to get into my career and instead work my way up from less desirable positions. This focus on brand for academic institution is also something you do not generally find in Germany where the criteria is typically the binary question of whether or not you have a particular degree in a particular subject area (though again the vast majority of jobs do not require a degree).

    Too often I observed the candidate with a Bachelor's at ~3.0 GPA from say Stanford being preferred over the candidate with a ~4.0 from a lesser known but equally rigorous institution.

    Of course this focus on brand continued beyond college. I quickly learned that a less desirable / impactful role at a top company opens more doors than top positions at unknown companies.

    Call me pessimistic, but I do not advise people to attend college in the US unless they can attend schools with a very strong brand and extensive alumni network in their desired professional field.

    Looking back at my education my secondary education in Germany was more formative and critical than my college education in the US. While I did have the opportunity to take advanced coursework in college here in the US it did not prepare me for generic jobs not specific to my field of study (and barely even is an asset in my profession). I believe we need to improve high school education in this country and reverse the trend of requiring a college education for the majority of jobs.

  • by xenihn on 2/23/21, 11:29 PM

    Does anyone else feel that standardized tests are the most egalitarian and meritocratic metric in the admissions process? Removing them and claiming that it makes things fairer doesn't seem true to me.

    The other three metrics (essay, grades, letters of recommendation) can be gamed/cheated. I'm sure standardized testing cheating happens, but it's so much more difficult, even for someone with connections.

    Your grades are positively affected if your family can afford tutors for you, or if your parents are educated enough to tutor you themselves. You can have inflated grades that aren't reflective of your actual competency or knowledge. The inverse of this is also true. Bad grades don't provide any obvious information or signal on their own. Poorer students may be assigned to schools that don't have AP classes, so they don't even have the possibility of grade inflation.

    You can have people help you write your admissions essay. Hell, you can have other people write it for you altogether. All of the wealth factors that influence GPA also influence your essay, if you actually write it completely by yourself.

    Letters of recommendation seem to be the most exclusionary and biased of all. I actually think it's ridiculous that they're still allowed. There is no way to verify that they are true. They're grounded in connections and elitism. How is the average applicant even supposed to compete with letters from a politician, alumni, famous businessperson, or some other type of celebrity? A wealthy student's family can also pay for these in multiple ways, if, for some reason, the connections didn't already exist.

    Meanwhile, the argument for tests being biased is that wealthier kids are able to prepare for them more than kids with less resources. But all of the other metrics tie to wealth as well, and every argument against standardized tests also applies to GPA. I'd even say GPA is influenced by wealth more than tests.

    You can pirate expensive prep materials. You can PROBABLY find a volunteer tutor if you live in or near a college. But even taking the argument that wealthier children are at an advantage at full value, that advantage is still less than what is provided by the other 3 metrics.

    I'm taking this a bit personally since I had an incredibly bad GPA in junior high and high school. I hated doing homework, and I hated sitting in lectures. I failed multiple classes because homework and attendance counted for so much of the total grade, that even 100%ing every quiz and test would still give me less than 60% in the class. The only thing that proved that I wasn't mentally retarded was my performance in course tests and standardized tests.

    College went ok. I'm now doing better career-wise and financially than anyone I went to school with, including all of the IB kids who went to top-tier schools (with one exception, there's ONE other person on my level, because they went into finance and they're now an iBanker). I would have been completely screwed without standardized tests as a metric.

  • by DC1350 on 2/23/21, 4:53 PM

    A huge generational change is that young people can just google "best X" for every life decision instead of caring about what they're exposed to organically. What job to do, city to live in, how to dress, etc. They can also find a community and detailed guides for achieving pretty much anything they want, so the special in-group knowledge isn't a barrier anymore. Anyone familiar with the whole tech interview prep culture should be able to understand that similar cultures exist for everything from academia to online dating. The downside is that the upper tier of everything is a lot more competitive so it's harder to win without gaming the system.