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Ask HN: Is the stock market different this time?

by yuningalexliu on 1/23/21, 10:25 PM with 4 comments

The stock market is at all-time high and this last bull run has been the longest in history.

However, I'm increasingly nervous that a big downturn is around the corner and am considering moving a significant portion to bonds. COVID is still ravaging my local economy and I'm concerned about the new variants.

But when I poll my friends, everyone seems to be super optimistic and pouring even more money into the stock market - and they're reaping big gains!

Do you think a significant downturn is coming (as has followed all major bull runs in my brief survey of history)? Or is something fundamentally different this time about this bull run that I don't understand?

  • by simonblack on 1/23/21, 11:41 PM

    The most expensive four words in the world: "This Time It's Different!"

    That's what they were saying when the Dot.Com Bubble was at its height. But it wasn't, of course. And many blue chip companies died a horrible death, as well as the Dot.Com Darlings

  • by a3n on 1/23/21, 11:33 PM

    IMO, if people are asking this question again, then, no.

  • by streetcat1 on 1/24/21, 12:58 AM

    In the stock market always ask : who's selling? I.e. who is on the other side of the trade? Is he smarter than me?

  • by fuzzfactor on 1/24/21, 1:31 AM

    Different than what?

    And how different can it be?