from Hacker News

Are you a “harbinger of failure”? (2015)

by traumivator on 12/31/20, 7:42 AM with 51 comments

  • by pram on 1/1/21, 2:51 AM

    I’m not convinced. They describe it as the result of having a “preference for risk” but maybe they’re just seeking novel experiences? If they’re trying new things simply because they’re new, then their behavior offers no predictive power. There’s very little risk associated with buying a different flavor of soda :V

  • by cryptica on 1/1/21, 11:31 AM

    I'm a harbinger of failure on the supply side. Whenever I join a company or new industry or make an investment or make a prediction, it does the exact opposite of what I anticipated because of some insane global event that has nothing to do with me.

    For example, I was working in a bootstrapped tech startup in online education industry which was delivering real value (really great product). But didn't really go anywhere... Then I learned that the lack of success in the education sector is probably because the entire global monetary system is a scam and so, unlike in the last thousands of years, real economic value stopped mattering as soon as I entered the workforce (what are the odds of that!?).

    So I learned from this and got into an extremely hyped-up blockchain project, then right after I joined, the CEO decided to cut back on marketing and focus on development, price crashed... (what are the odds?)

    So I quit and started a crypto project related to travel industry, COVID19 happens... ITO fails... WTF???

    Seriously, the government should just give me free money. I don't care about pride or self-fulfillment or whatever nonsense emotion some completely useless job is supposed to bring to my shitty life. Just give me free money so that I don't have to deal with any of this shit. I don't need any fancy bling, I just want unlimited time off from having to deal with our insane economy. Too bad I can't charge companies to NOT invest in them and to stay away from their employees.

  • by gibolt on 1/1/21, 6:00 AM

    The British comedy panel show QI (Quite Interesting) had a segment on this. One of my favorite shows to learn all kinds of random topics.

    Series N, Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/PNKgry1c8Qw&t=100

  • by dragontamer on 1/1/21, 5:43 AM

    Pebble, Nook, a bunch of Kickstarter stuff... Lumia 950.

    Also the Burger King "Big King" burger, the McDonalds chicken selects... and a few other items that I have forgotten about over the years...

    I dunno if that makes me "Harbinger of Failure", but its become clear that my consumer tastes are pretty niche.

    ------

    At least I got "unsweet ice tea" right, lol. Seems like plenty of soda companies are making that now.

  • by dang on 1/1/21, 5:40 AM

    A friend of mine who grew up in Spokane, WA told me that for some reason Spokane was regarded as the ideal product testing ground by big American corporations, and so he and his friends encountered a lot of weird products that never succeeded, and a few major ones that they saw years before everyone else. Anybody know if this is true?

  • by ncmncm on 1/1/21, 6:30 AM

    I have long called certain people "Oracles of Wrong". If they are the same people, they can also be counted upon to be wrong on any issue of substance. So, anytime there is a decision to be made, look to them, and choose the opposite.

    It is hard to be right all the time. Logically, it should be exactly, equally hard to be wrong all the time, but somehow more people achieve it.

    In any big group of people known to each other, it is always easy to tell who the Oracles of Wrong are. (If you don't know, it might be you; but if it is, you are probably wrong about that, too.) I have had some decades to think about this, and identify other qualities of these individuals, besides their preference for wrongness. They are of above-average intelligence. They are typically upper-class; some wear a trilby. They prefer alternatives that are personally easy for them, requiring less change in habits or thinking. They have never experienced any substantial personal discomfort as a consequence of a wrong choice.

    In cases of uncertainty, look to an Oracle of Wrong for anti-leadership.

  • by spaetzleesser on 1/1/21, 4:40 AM

    Is there a way to make money with this? I often find cool products on the food section which unerringly disappear after my first purchase.

    I am also good at watching fads and as soon as I join they are over.

    I definitely envy some people I know who have a talent for jumping on trends early. I often feeloput of sync with society .

  • by maxerickson on 1/1/21, 3:33 AM

  • by burnte on 1/1/21, 3:53 AM

    I am, but not of the truly awful products, but of the really useful but too-niche products. I buy products that die so often I got into the habit of buying two and squirreling one away for when the first breaks, but they aren't for sale anymore.

  • by drblast on 1/1/21, 6:39 AM

    I just miss Milky Way Dark ice cream bars, raspberry schweppes ginger ale, and Jell-O 123. I can't understand how these things aren't still widely available.

  • by supernova87a on 1/1/21, 3:14 AM

    I guess marketers want to find all those interesting categories of people who can tell them early whether something is going to work or not. This category just happens to be the ones who always get it wrong. The other category is the "trendsetters" those hipsters who get on something (correctly) before everyone else does.

  • by sjg007 on 1/1/21, 5:23 AM

    I really liked crystal pepsi.. wish it was still around. I was exposed to it in middle school I think... so I didn't have a lot of purchasing power back then. Although I am not a big fan of soda these days.

  • by Animats on 1/1/21, 4:57 AM

    I wonder if this correlates with consuming less advertising. People who don't watch many ads may not buy mainstream products.

  • by jmcgough on 1/1/21, 5:54 AM

    Some friends are the type who like things in part because they're weird, unpopular and unusual, or because a product flops and they're curious to try it before it's gone.

  • by georgewsinger on 1/1/21, 3:07 AM

    They're called early adopters. Thank God they exist to try out/put up with our early form products :]

  • by mcavoybn on 1/1/21, 2:30 AM

    no

  • by User23 on 1/1/21, 6:22 AM

    I’ve joked with my friends that I should start a go long on things that I hate fund because it would make a fortune.