from Hacker News

Chips and Geopolitics

by tchalla on 5/19/20, 3:11 PM with 47 comments

  • by ksec on 5/19/20, 3:56 PM

    “As the world is no longer peaceful, TSMC is gaining vital importance in geostrategic terms,”

    -Morris Chang, former chairman and CEO of the world’s largest semiconductor foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in 2019.

    And he said something similar in 2017 as well. Turns out he foresee all sort of problems when TSMC became the leading Fab for the world.

    The 2013 piece [1] on Intel is also interesting. That was when Intel were about to launch their delayed 14nm. It is rather unfortunate Intel decide not to follow through their Custom Foundry.

    [1] https://stratechery.com/2013/the-intel-opportunity/

  • by sremani on 5/19/20, 4:08 PM

    >> the lesson in 2020 should be that technology is inseparable from geopolitics.

    I cannot agree more. If we learn one thing this year this is it.

  • by trynumber9 on 5/19/20, 5:05 PM

    It wasn't only Intel making microprocessors in the US. Samsung has one of their largest fabs in Texas. Global Foundries has their best fab in New York. As I understand they're both equipped to make 14nm-class processors. Not that it detracts from the general point of the article.

  • by zozbot234 on 5/19/20, 4:12 PM

    I assume that multi-chip packages will soon develop as a new source of modularity within chip fabrication itself. There will be common standards for how multiple chiplets can be wired inside of a package, and the OEM will no longer be restricted to having a single supplier like TSMC for the entire "package" component but be free to choose among multiple, freely-competing suppliers ala TSMC, Intel, Samsung, SMIC etc. Then the "geopolitical" need for an advanced, billion-dollar "fab" will essentially be disintermediated away - only a few tiny, perhaps optional components will ever be manufactured at anything like a 7nm or 5nm process. Everything else will simply end up as a basic commodity.

  • by danioli on 5/19/20, 3:28 PM

    Typo: 80286 (not 80826), and 80386 (80836), in the opening paragraphs.

  • by mchusma on 5/19/20, 3:46 PM

    I would love to see Intel get into contract manufacturing. We need more competition in that space and Intel's position no longer makes sense in the current environment.

  • by camillomiller on 5/20/20, 7:59 AM

    Amazing read, but I disagree with this simplistic political conclusion:

    > Second, at some point every tech company is going to have to make a choice between the U.S. and China. It is tempting to blame the tension between the two countries on Trump, but the truth is that China, particularly under Xi Jinping, has been significantly hardening its rhetoric and actions since before Trump was elected, and has been committed to not just catching but surpassing the U.S. in technology for years. There is a fundamental clash of values between the West and China, and it is clear that China is interested in exporting theirs. At some point everyone will be stuck in the middle, like TSMC, and Switzerland won’t be an option.

    If Cold War has taught us anything, it’s that display of force didn’t yield anything. Dialogue and exporting values did. So yes, absolutely: the escalation is Trump’s fault, because of the insufferable rhetoric of his warmongering hawks. Xi Jinping is a way more tactical and dialogue oriented leader (not a positive judgement on official PRC values, of course) that is being defeated by the proverbial pigeon shitting on the board during a game of chess. Decoupling from China is easily sellable as the anti-communist propaganda in the 50s, but the harsh reality is that in today’s world it means recklessly hammering pieces off of the global economy jenga tower, and hoping it will stay up. Dialogue and severely regulated exchange with the potential enemy is the real weapon that could weaken China. Putting human rights on the table when it comes to trade treaties, for example. Instead, there’s a resurgence of scary nationalism that is exactly what brought the world on the brink of collapse 75 years ago. If I had to choose two words, right now, I would go with “brace brace”.

  • by antoniuschan99 on 5/19/20, 7:09 PM

    Any recommendations on a pcb assembly house in Taiwan?