from Hacker News

When Will Covid-19 End

by selim17 on 4/25/20, 5:44 PM with 3 comments

• by Johnjonjoan on 4/25/20, 5:58 PM

  I've been very cautious when approaching the question of when will covid end. There is too much we don't know about covid namely if and for how long recovered persons are immune.

  This website does not seem to be doing the same. I would much prefer the website to be more conservative. It should be named "When could covid-19 end" and the assumptions of it's method should be easy clearer to visitor. (on the same page)

  I know to a lot of us it's obvious that this is modeling with many assumptions but when it's presented like fact a lot of people won't look any further into it and take it as fact.

• by nabla9 on 4/25/20, 5:50 PM

  The prediction is complete BS, because they use SIR model without mitigation. Reproductive number is temporarily close to 1 in most countries used. Without mitigation it's something like 2-3.

  They use wrong model.