from Hacker News

Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics

by tangental on 3/8/20, 5:11 AM with 15 comments

  • by roenxi on 3/8/20, 7:42 AM

    There is a real question here about whether we can sustain the sort of sprawling, interconnected, JIT supply chain that has been set up in the last 20 years and also whether our international travel patterns are sustainable.

    The speed with which COVID-19 got to pretty much everywhere is stunning. If the death rate was more in line with, eg, the Black Death it would be interesting to see what happened to food & other supplies in the major cities.

    Hopefully there is some principle that a virus can't jump between species that is both infectious, deadly and slow to show symptoms after becoming infectious.

  • by forkexec on 3/8/20, 7:09 AM

    For bacteria, antibiotic resistance is a big deal and aggravated by routine oversubscribing and meat agriculture. We need more antibiotics and phages quickly.

    For fungi and yeast, there aren't enough antimycotics and they too are overused. We need more antimycotics and phages quickly also.

    For viruses, meat agriculture, forest destruction and urban sprawl are contributory factors leading to faster mutations and jumping species eventually into us. It would be nice to have a mostly automated vaccine development lab system that can assemble and test thousands of compounds simultaneously.

  • by chriselles on 3/8/20, 7:34 AM

    In 2010, my home of Christchurch has a serious earthquake.

    In 2011, it suffered another far more serious earthquake.

    The 1st one provided a full dress rehearsal for the 2nd one.

    I wonder of the same will be said for pandemics?

    Coronavirus is by no means a dystopian apocalypse.

    But it could be an opportunity to help us learn to prevent one.

    My concern is around the cost benefit analysis from the perspective of elected leadership.

    Prevention doesn’t pay politically.

  • by hinkley on 3/8/20, 7:37 AM

    I’d like to see some defense budget diverted to create a bigger surplus of availability of other resources, like medical infrastructure. Give hospitals a double tax write off for empty beds, or some other clever incentive to ensure that they don’t try to run at exactly capacity all the time.

  • by transitivebs on 3/8/20, 7:13 AM

    This is why it's so important that we do everything in our power to achieve a "societal backup" by expanding to at least one more planet.

    At a grander level, this is what Elon Musk, SpaceX, and other related endeavors are all about.

    Humans are terrible at considering and planning for large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events ala pandemics, nuclear holocaust, and the long term effects of climate change.

    The only real way to ensure that we don't drive ourselves extinct as a society (either purposefully or accidentally) is to create a backup copy of society, just like you would do for any other extremely valuable piece of information.

    Onward to Mars!