from Hacker News

Tesla Model 3 Cost of Ownership Slightly Cheaper Than a Camry

by arbie on 8/26/19, 5:53 AM with 76 comments

• by mlyle on 8/26/19, 6:12 AM

  Seems to be predicated upon a number of questionable assumptions-- including that

  - a Model 3 is cheaper to insure than a Camry (thus far, the opposite is true-- and it seems optimistic to attain for a car that costs so much more, has higher performance, and higher repair costs)

  - the Model 3 will be cheaper to maintain by a massive factor (we'll see; there is maintenance avoided by having an electric car but also Tesla's part costs and availability has been poor)

  - resale value will hold up exceptionally well for the Tesla

  Basically, the most optimistic values have been taken for the Tesla in every field and the most pessimistic values have been taken for the Camry, and the Tesla manages a slight win.

• by robocat on 8/26/19, 9:24 AM

  Which Car Models Have the Lowest Maintenance Cost?

  Based on total car maintenance costs over 10 years: Rank:Make_Model@Cost Cheapest:Toyota_Prius@$4,300 2nd_cheapest:Kia_Soul@$4,700 3rd_cheapest:Toyota_Camry@$5,200

  They think a Camry costs $4000 over 5 years to maintain, whereas Your Mechanic thinks it is $5200 over 10 years - something smells. Fix that, and the advantage goes away.

  I think it is very unlikely the Model 3 costs less to maintain than a Camry over 10 years (projected). Toyota are insanely much better than any other manufacturer - I am sceptical a new manufacturer with a new model can jumpstart reliability figures like that. Are they including expected battery replacement costs?

  https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expe...

• by calewis on 8/26/19, 8:20 AM

  I am a new model 3 owner in the UK and the insurance is astronomical. Despite having a license for more than 9 years (usually the maximum for UK insurers), having no convictions, it being stored on a driveway with CCTV my quote was £2,600 p.a. I do live in London and haven't owned a car for a few years so(no claims discount not being applicable). While I was expecting an expensive premium, I wasn’t expecting something so outrageous! For context I owned a sporty car when I was 19 and had just passed my test my insurance was £1200p.a. I consider myself, and the car, considerably safer and this expected something around this mark. I am hoping next year I will see a significant drop in price. I wonder how ‘real word’ their calculations where?

• by Yaggo on 8/26/19, 8:10 AM

  I came to same conclusion as an European (Finn).

  As my Prius is approaching ten years age, I'm going to retire it and get new primary car. I calculated that new Corolla Hybrid with best trim + gas for 5 years will cost roughly the same as SR+ with electricity (inc. 2 KEUR rebate).

  Btw, currently I pay 300 EUR per month for gas (~1.5 per litre), while SR+ monthly loan payment starts from 450 EUR (with 5 KEUR down payment). Electricity is relatively cheap (and green!) in Finland, also insurancing a Tesla has no premium. It starts to look like a bargain!

  We drive a lot, almost 50,000 km per year. Of course there are lot variables, but I'm pretty sure that gas and ICE car taxation won't get any cheaper. Not to forget that SR+ is definitely more fun daily driver.

• by aetherspawn on 8/26/19, 9:27 AM

  The resale value for the Camry is bogus. I paid about $10k for a less nice Camry as the one mentioned in the article that was 7 years old with 130K kms. For a 5 year old LE with low kms I’d expect $13-17k resale.

• by astura on 8/26/19, 1:36 PM

  Lol... Nobody spends $4k on maintenance over the first five years of a brand new Camry's life.

  Id like to see how a Model 3 is cheaper to insure as well... seems questionable at best. I'd have to get quotes to disprove it though.

  In fact, right now I have an econocar that's almost 10 years old and I'm certain I've spent less than $4k in maintenance over that decade. I've gotten new tires twice (~$1,300), new battery (~300), brakes (~$400), oil changes (~$300), turn signal bulbs (~$10) and that's really all I can remember.

• by exabrial on 8/26/19, 11:50 AM

  Not mentioned: cost of repairs. The running joke with Tesla's seems to be you're not a real owner until it's been on a diesel truck.

• by thorwasdfasdf on 8/26/19, 4:15 PM

  The Gas/Electricity cost comparison are off.

  CA electric rates average 15.34c/KwH Tesla gets 27 KwH per 100 miles which comes out to 4.14$ per 100 miles for the Tesla A Camry at 50mpg uses 2 gallons costing 7$ per 100 miles.

  So, on a per elec/gas basic the comparison should be: 2250 vs 3804

  And, if you live in the bay area, then your electric rates can easily be 18, or 19c/KwH nearly putting the TM3 on par with the camry.

  Also, as other pointed out: in the long term, the camry will cost much much less on maintenance than a TM3. if those TM3 door handles go out, that's 1500$ each just for that.

  a year or two ago KBHD said nearly every Youtuber who's ever reviewed a Tesla (with the exception of 2), has at some point had their Tesla's up on a flatbed truck.

  I don't know if they've improved the reliability since then but I think Tesla still has a lot to prove in this category, especially considering how expensive they are to repair.

• by mbruce on 8/26/19, 8:05 AM

  I wonder what it would like compared to a Camry hybrid. While, as EVs come down in price it is likely hybrids will disappear, on this comparison it could be cheaper. Not as much fun as the Tesla mind you - which is worth something to many.

• by free652 on 8/26/19, 8:35 AM

  How are the repairs for a Tesla Model 3 cheaper than for a Camry.

  $60 oil change x 20 = $1200. Everything else is the same or pricier for a Tesla.

• by woodandsteel on 8/26/19, 8:49 PM

  There's a lot of arguing here about the true cost of a Model 3. But the larger question is trends. The only reason electrics have a higher sticker prices today is the huge cost of the battery pack. But cell prices are dropping rapidly. They went down 35% in the last year alone.

  The experts say this is going to continue, and in another 2 or 3 years ev's will equal ice's in sticker price, and then continue to fall. That plus various other factors will lead to ev sales skyrocketing and ice sales plummeting. A lot of the ice manufacturers like VW and GM have realized this is coming, and so they are working hard to convert over to ev's.

• by eigenloss on 8/26/19, 2:52 PM

  The savings from 1-3 years of depreciation on a comparable Camry makes this a complete non-debate. I love Tesla(s) as much as anyone else, but their cars are still luxury goods.

• by ebg13 on 8/26/19, 1:16 PM

  So this compares a new model 3 to a new Camry. But on the principle that most people buy their cars used, I'd be more interested in a breakdown of the ownership cost of buying 1-5 year old vehicles. The purchase price on ICE vehicles goes way down in the first year. Does the same hold for EVs?

• by alexandros on 8/26/19, 10:09 AM

  Critically, this doesn't take into account that the model 3 has the lowest probability of injury [1] of any car ever tested by the NHTSA. Driving a car with a higher probability of injury means you must calculate the cost of a fractional injury and what this might cost you and your passengers in lost time and/or quality of life, nevermind the case where the injury is fatal.

  [1]: https://insideevs.com/news/356489/tesla-model-3-safety/

• by panpanna on 8/26/19, 11:58 AM

  Possibly dumb questions:

  1. How long would the batteries last on the Tesla?

  2. Do they need to be serviced more often if you live in colder climates?

  3. Wouldn't battery health affect resale value??

• by bigkm on 8/26/19, 3:13 PM

  These cars aren't even remotely comparable when you look at performance.

• by ryanmercer on 8/26/19, 11:55 AM

  Brand new perhaps, that Camry is going to hold resale value given it is a Toyota and should run a couple of few hundred thousand miles with routine maintenance, those batteries going to last 200-300k miles in the Tesla?

• by tzury on 8/26/19, 11:04 AM

  $0.03 per mile and roughly $260 per year.

  I was assuming Tesla saves more.