from Hacker News

High-end house rents in Vancouver plunge up to 20% as inventory spikes: experts

by krausejj on 10/20/18, 3:50 PM with 106 comments

  • by ryanwaggoner on 10/20/18, 5:05 PM

    This is a garbage article when compared with the headline. The “experts” is two property managers who don’t even agree on what’s happening or why. The 20% figure comes from a quote that sounds like an off-the-too-of-my-head assessment from one of them:

    ”What we’re seeing is that rental rates have decreased up to 20 per cent from the spring of 2017, and it’s getting even worse.”

    They also say they’ve never seen anything like this in their TEN whole years of property management!!

    Rents might be dropping by this much, or even more, but this is hardly even evidence of that, let alone data from “experts”.

    Better title: “One property manager estimates that some luxury property rents in Vancouver have declined by up to 20% over the past year.”

  • by derefr on 10/20/18, 7:53 PM

    I want to point out that Vancouver’s municipal election is today (I’m standing in line for it), and many of the candidates are running on platforms related to the housing crisis.

    Whatever you think of the issue, this particular article isn’t “about” the issue so much as it is a precisely-timed propaganda piece aimed at influencing the election.

  • by 40acres on 10/20/18, 6:29 PM

    It's hard not to see the overall solution to the housing crisis in some North American cities as simply building more housing.

    A speculation and/or vacancy tax makes sense in cities with a high number of foreign buyers like Vancouver and New York but in other cities it seems like the biggest road block is simply zoning restrictions that prevent supply to meet demand. There are second order effects that need to go w/ more building, such as adequate transportation, parking and services. But if your goal is simply to get the average down can you do better than simply building more? Rent control seems more like a band-aid for a small number of folks rather than a real solution.

  • by meritt on 10/20/18, 5:33 PM

    > A $3 million house that would have rented for $5,000 a year ago

    $5k/mo for a $3M home is a cap rate of just 2%. That's pretty terrible in itself. Now it's $4k/mo or 1.6%? How on earth is that financially sustainable at either amount?

  • by pkaler on 10/20/18, 9:37 PM

    The Vancouver municipal election is today. This is a propaganda piece written by Glacier Media Real Estate. The goals of this piece is to muddy the water and convince people to not for candidates proposing an increase of housing supply.

    This article should be flagged.

  • by tspike on 10/20/18, 5:05 PM

    This is great news and may serve as a model for other cities facing similar housing shortages. Was the speculation tax a ballot measure or something passed at the city council level?

  • by projectramo on 10/20/18, 6:04 PM

    Two questions that seem to be answered but aren’t quite:

    1. So was the theory that the housing price spike was driven by foreign buyers who didn’t occupy their homes accurate?

    2. So did the speculation tax work?

  • by Tiktaalik on 10/20/18, 5:04 PM

    The Globe and Mail does a constant round up of various real estate sales, and this recently published one was quite interesting:

    Empty-homes tax prompts sale of Vancouver condo

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/articl...

  • by goatherders on 10/20/18, 5:03 PM

    I rent in the north shore. I'm glad rents are coming down and I'm glad I didnt buy last year when u was tempted. That said, I dont know anyone that thinks the market is slowing. The overseas money still props things up pretty well.

  • by DenisM on 10/20/18, 6:39 PM

    FWIW Seattle real estate market stalled out two months ago - inventory is rising, buyers are sitting on the sideline waiting for the first shoe to drop.

    No source, just something I heard from a guy trying to sell.

  • by escape_goat on 10/20/18, 9:33 PM

    Are there prior examples of usage wherein one may 'plunge' in an upwards direction? Idiomatically, the word is most frequently used to describe (a) rapid motion into water and/or (b) rapid motion downwards. Personally, and perhaps consequentially, I have only ever encountered the term with respect to 'into' and 'downwards'. However, if the etymology of the word is consistent with a more general usage, I would be pleased to learn that.

  • by krausejj on 10/20/18, 3:57 PM

    Does anyone have details on the "speculation" tax? Do any other regions use similar taxes?

  • by truebosko on 10/20/18, 6:17 PM

    I am curious how much lag Toronto has on Vancouver. Not quite the same problems, but very similar. TO seems to be about 1.5 years behind Vancouver markets