from Hacker News

The end of India’s ‘IT miracle’?

by fourmii on 6/7/18, 3:07 AM with 403 comments

  • by osrec on 6/7/18, 11:57 AM

    IT miracle? More like IT sham. The quality of engineers in India is sketchy at best in my experience. Lack of understanding and innovation is rife across the board, but they seem to be great at selling their service. This may be because of the "yes" culture other comments have mentioned, but I would guess it's got a lot to do with a massively undercut price. It is, however, a false economy, because you often end up implementing things 4 times before they're fit for purpose. Also, the attrition rate in Indian tech firms is crazy - I've often seen 80% of a team change before the end of a 6 month project, which means continual re-explanation of requirements etc etc. For me, developers in India have always been a bad experience, and I'm genuinely surprised at the success the Indian IT outsourcing companies have enjoyed over the decades.
  • by niklasd on 6/7/18, 8:28 AM

    I studied in India 2012 for a short time. I met incredible smart and hardworking people. However, one thing that I found quite unnerving was that there is a tendency to always anwser yes if asked if one knows how to do something, even if thats not true. Sometimes a plain "I don't know" can be very helpful in achieving a goal.

    I can't count how many times I asked a rickshaw driver if he knew a certain place and he answered yes, and we just drove around for some time until I found out he has no idea. From what I heard that sometimes remains a problem, also in IT service.

    That said, we all have our cultural qirks, and in most cases knowing them solves half the problem.

  • by sumanthvepa on 6/7/18, 8:09 AM

    While the article doesn't explicitly make the association, I get the impression that a lot of HN readers make the assumption that India's tech sector is synonymous with its IT services industry. Not so. While it is true that IT services is plateauing, that is not so with the tech sector as a whole. E-commerce, cloud-computing, fintech are exploding in India driven by a massive domestic market demand and an ability to reach global markets easily. There is a new breed of product startups out of Bangalore and other places that are born global (e.g. Zoho). They build products (not services) for the world, and not just India. Inward investment into the Indian tech sector was the highest it ever was (though still dwarfed by investment into the US tech sector and China's tech sector) https://www.business-standard.com/article/specials/2017-saw-... So the doom and gloom are not quite accurate. Yes IT services may have plateaued after two decades of torrid growth, but tech is doing fine thank you.
  • by code4tee on 6/7/18, 1:00 PM

    If you’ve ever been to India you see that clearly the general approach to things is just throw people at the problem. Why have one person inspecting your ticket when you can have four?

    The problem with the Indian outsourcers is that they’ve broadly failed to move up the technology value chain. These firms were quite good at the “just throw a bunch of people at it” solutions to brute force get work done but the tech sector has moved on.

    Need a company to give you 1000 mechanical turks to perform some tasks you haven’t been able to automate yet? Go to an Indian outsourcing firm. Need some people to design technology to make the mechanical turks no longer required? That talent is generally not found within these Indian firms.

    In that sense what McKinsey said in the article is probably true. Advances (largely built elsewhere) will probably make 80% of what these firms do irrelevant in the next few years.

  • by bane on 6/7/18, 1:57 PM

    I think another way to look at it:

    Many Indians who were legitimately good ended up in high paying jobs where they then used that money and skill to emigrate to countries with more comfortable standards of living. In my area, the Indian immigrant community has exploded, and almost entirely within the technology sector to start with, but now rapidly expanding to other areas as family members sponsor other family members and so on.

    The wonderful halo effect is of course that family members who immigrated with the technical household head, but don't work in tech, are now employed at, opening and running all manner of businesses as well.

    As a result I have a vast community of new, highly skilled and educated neighbors who are also ambitious and motivated.

  • by chvid on 6/7/18, 8:24 AM

    In my own observation the use of outsourcing to India (in terms of market share) has been declining for years. Either being replaced by work done here in Copenhagen or in countries nearer by - Poland in particular.

    As a practioner; I cannot say that I miss working with projects outsourced to India. I really hope that you guys learn a less bureaucratic and hierarical way of working and you as a country become more focused on internal demand.

  • by koolhead17 on 6/7/18, 12:31 PM

    We have a saying here in India: "You pay peanuts, you hire donkeys".

    So a lot many comments in the thread is either generalization or a confirmation bias.

    The India I know and software developers I know of are no less either in dream or dedication from peers in Silicon Valley or any other part of developed world. :)

  • by reacharavindh on 6/7/18, 6:32 AM

    If anything, Indian engineers are street smart, and pick up new tech and tools very quickly. Of course, everybody can, I mean to say that there is a cultural attitude to quick adaptation to changing conditions.

    Source: myself, Indian CS engineer, now living in Europe.

    Sure, the simple laborious IT tasks are going away with automation for good. But the labor force will pick the next best thing. As long as labor is cheaper than the west, Indian outsourcing companies will only thrive. In 10 years, the dynamics will slowly evolve such that outsourcing will slow down, and more original startups will rise up.

    UPDATE: I over generalized my comment for my own good. I meant to say, many engineers that I know are .....

  • by kamaal on 6/7/18, 7:21 AM

    Multinational companies took the wind out of the sails for most IT companies's ability to hire talent.

    Around 2008, there was a peak boom in offshore centers set up by most companies. These companies could afford to pay well because most of their revenue is either ad revenue or from companies like Microsoft which had a great sales pipeline going. These companies around 2014 - 2015 started to cut down heavily on offshore hiring, the reason was salaries were bonkers and most managers overpaid certain employees by several factors higher than others(Thanks to insane stock packages). The salary levels for many employees were on par with US salaries. Once you reach that point, it makes sense to hire people in US than in Bangalore. This plateau effected product based multinational companies more than services companies.

    Another factor that has played into this whole thing is the number of H1B's and Green cards currently staying in US. The L1 A and EB-1 program was abused by most companies(ironically product companies) to award GCs in wholesale. As of now the peak services company head count around 2008 is now entirely working in the US. Of course if you have all the cheap labor you want in your home country, you don't outsource much to India.

    The actual services company industry is going at the same pace as before. They are quite fiscally responsible companies so don't pay 4x higher as product companies do, they are perennially profitable though. Infosys is one of the most successful tech companies in the history of India ever. In fact the product company salaries are the biggest reason many fresher in the past few years have opted to be SREs/DBAs/PEs/QEs(non-dev roles) etc in product companies than be programmers in service companies. The irony today is people from small time colleges get to work a lot of good dev projects in service companies than people from top colleges who work on non-dev projects.

    The third factor of course is homegrown start up ecosystem. Start ups in India payed quite well around 2014 when VC money was free and plenty. I guess they don't pay that well now. And they are also quite stingy with equity. Plus I hear they are bad with tech work too. Most of it is Spring + Java + Postgres stitching.

    I remember in the peak of service companies I did far more quality work than any start up kid does today.

    May be the next US recession will change things again. But like I said before, people are now used to MNC salaries and suffer through any bad project for just the salary.

  • by OliverJones on 6/7/18, 11:20 AM

    In 2004, I heard a sales pitch from a VP of a big outsourcing outfit in Bengaluru (fka Bangalore).

    In response to a question about turnover and preventing it, he said they were giving raises of about 7% to their developers twice a year.

    That was crazy. That was Sili-Valley crazy. There are limits to growth. It's too bad they're hitting good people.

    But the business model of Infosys and other outsource IT services giants has always been arbitrage: buying something where and when it's cheap and selling it where and when it's expensive. Arbitrage is a risky game in the long run. And when the commodity being traded is people, people are bound to get hurt. It's just reality.

  • by pipio21 on 6/7/18, 2:43 PM

    If someone works for me 18 hours instead of 8 consistently I will fire him immediately.

    We do not want overworked and burn out slaves, thank you very much.

    Making more than 6 hours of real deep work every day is extremely challenging. Someone who tells me he is working 18...

    We have some Indians that work for us, on similar terms than Europeans or Americans, living in Europe. Good workers and have earned their place, like the rest.

  • by mwarcholinski on 6/7/18, 2:34 PM

    I've worked before with my two startups with teams from India, and this was a disaster, but I think the reasons why were:

    #1 Lack of my experience in dev area - how to work with dev teams (mainly external)

    #2 Pricing - I was price sensitive, and in the long term, it caused that the code was not usable while scaling the business.

    I hated it so much that after those two startups I've built my own software dev company focused on one technology and a quite small team of tech-savvy colleagues.

    Below my checklist that I'm using to evaluate the outsourcing companies with who I would like to work -> http://bit.ly/2Hthv5A

  • by debarshri on 6/7/18, 1:07 PM

    There are few hidden aspects that are in my opinion affecting the Indian IT eco system. Everybody talks about automation making the jobs redundant, I think there are more factors affecting it.

    I remember back when I graduated, only options I had was to work for these outsourcing companies. That is no longer true. India has a rich ecosystem of startups that definitely pay better than the outsourcing companies. I often compare the indian IT eco system to multi-level marketing, where older generation of employees would recruit newer generation to keep the costs low. Now, with rich startup ecosystem, talented younger generation have become expensive and scarce for these outsourcing companies.

    Secondly, most of these outsourcing company's ethics and principle were derived from IBM, which led to creation of long chain of hierarchical management. I remember when I worked in one of these companies, an approval of procuring a server (not the server itself) would take months. There would be unwarranted politics. Lot of these manager are essentially skill-less. This has led to a problem where attracting talent to these organisation is very difficult. Furthermore, to keep the costs low, these outsourcing companies would go to third tier colleges and cities. Talent from colleges and universities are basically unemployable, resulting in a poor client experience.

    Thirdly, major clients have started realizing the cost of outsourcing and benefits of owning your own technology. In my opinion, these outsourcing companies were basically sweatshops masqueraded as technology companies. Attrition rate in outsourcing companies are really high. If these outsourcing companies would have controlled the attrition rates and built technology products, these companies would have been relevant. Before the financial crisis, these companies did have resources and talent to do so. Companies like TCS did try to build their products and did get sued [1]. However, you would be suprised how many banks use their banking product [2].

    Having said that, most of the outsourcing companies have very cash rich. I wouldn't be surprise if they start acquire smaller product companies to stay relevant.

    [1]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/...

    [2]http://sites.tcs.com/tcsbancs/

  • by enlightenedfool on 6/7/18, 2:27 PM

    A bunch of crappy generalizations here driven by emotions - "quality of engineers in India is sketchy at best". I can say the same about the American engineers around me right now. There are good and bad engineers everywhere. Same about culture. And companies like Google, Amazon won't hire sketchy people to save money. Think before you talk. The system is driven by basic economics and what's allowed by law. Companies take advantage of that. USA is now turning protective and hire its citizens. Good for them. The world will chug on either way.
  • by mkovji on 6/7/18, 4:09 PM

    >>There were 350 posters in all, bought for $80,000 by an organization called Progressives for Immigration Reform.

    Why did 350 posters cost $80000, i am sure it would have cost lot less if they have been made outside US.

  • by amriksohata on 6/7/18, 7:44 PM

    Indian origin here working in the UK. I have met good and bad developers from India and the UK. I agree the attitude in India is to get the job done but thats because they are contracting for companies here. Its the same attitude I get from UK contracting companies, they write terrible code and just get the job done. However I found the best developers working in smaller private companies. I've found various contracting companies in the UK just as bad as Indian companies, poor coding standards, lies and fob offs.
  • by Apocryphon on 6/7/18, 7:13 AM

    Regardless of some of the pessimistic takes in this thread of the quality of engineering or institutions in India, the nation is still poised to be the world's most populous nation within five years* - surely a large free market, unhemmed by a giant firewall, would be a great incentive for innovation and enterprise?

    * http://time.com/3978175/india-population-worlds-most-populou...

  • by ilarum on 6/7/18, 8:01 AM

    I personally know someone really smart who was on an H1B visa in the US with his family. Recently, when hit with an RFE (request for evidence) during a routine renewal of his visa, he decided that it just wasn't worth the trouble of living in perpetual fear (settled status wait time is about 15 years) and shifted his entire family to Canada.

    I bring this up because while Trump may attempt to target visa abusers, some smart people are also trapped in the crossfire which I feel affects the country negatively.

  • by techresearch on 6/8/18, 5:35 PM

    I am against indiscriminately awarding H1B visas and shipping American jobs overseas or using cheap foreign tech labor to undercut American workers. American workers need jobs, to pay bills, to live, fair enough! Then force your American companies to stop hiring foreign workers, stop undercutting and outsourcing. But don't use racism, supposed Indian incompetence in tech work, stereotyping brown people as somehow stupid and not good workers and so on to create your fight.
  • by jmartrican on 6/7/18, 3:16 PM

    I have a theory that a certain percentage of any given population can do good engineering or IT in general. The US and India are pushing up against those limits. This leads to recruiting people without the lust or mental capabilities to do said work. This leads to shoddy output for the customers hiring the tail end of the bunch... a very long tail because the demand is so high.
  • by known on 6/8/18, 9:17 AM

    India is producing Low cost - Low quality services and China is producing Low cost - High quality goods http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21716630-not-goo...
  • by eric24234 on 6/8/18, 9:44 PM

    I have worked as a backend developer in product company for about 8 years. I honestly never came across an US/foreign developer who is > 1.1X my ability. I guess except the big four companies all developers (US/indian) have same level of programming competence on average. The only variation is the cultural comfort.
  • by starpilot on 6/7/18, 4:27 PM

    Is it just me or do Indians greatly prefer to communicate and delegate tasks over phone versus email? I'm working with subcontractors right now, and it makes it a pain when it means doing daily calls late at night or early in the morning to talk to them in India.
  • by thisisit on 6/7/18, 6:56 AM

    > The consulting firm McKinsey estimates that new tech could make two-thirds of the Indian IT workforce “irrelevant” by 2020. Indian newspaper headlines warned of an IT jobs “bloodbath,”

    There was an amazing answer to this "bloodbath" fallacy during an AI/ML conference in Bangalore.

    One of the panelists talked about "Manure" - During the Victorian era there used to be lot of horse carriages. More horses meant more manure. So when automobiles were introduced there was a fear that lot of people relying on manure related jobs. But that never happened as automobile related jobs took over. Same is expected to happen during the so-called "bloodbath".

    > The level of offshoring of IT services has taken a massive dip since Trump got in

    If this is true then the headline about "plateauing" doesn't make sense. It is more of a blip. Next elections when there is a non-Trump President things might get better.

    That said, the article reads more like a history of Infosys than actual headline content. Major points are simply - Trump and AI.

  • by calif on 6/7/18, 3:15 PM

    wow, most of the photos in the article are so bad. certainly stressing the point that "oh, this is bad, low quality, cheap and poor, and so are the Indians we talk about in this article"...
  • by intrasight on 6/7/18, 5:10 PM

    I read that article expecting it to say something about "the end" but found nothing. Poor article and a waste of 5 minutes of my life. Seemed to be an ad for Infosys.
  • by aphextron on 6/7/18, 3:45 PM

    Turns out paying people low wages is not really miraculous.
  • by mkovji on 6/7/18, 4:16 PM

    Doesn't making things where it costs the least and guarantees best quality contribute to the overall efficiency and economy of the world.
  • by crb002 on 6/7/18, 1:55 PM

    Remote work in the US and great talent from the same time zones in South and Central Americas has a lot to do with it.
  • by erikb on 6/7/18, 8:24 AM

    Hasn't there been an article like 12 months ago that described how it's already moving into a downswing?
  • by theyinwhy on 6/7/18, 4:36 PM

    Imho both US-americans and Indians tend to oversell themselves to a degree of perversion.
  • by RandomCSGeek on 6/8/18, 6:19 AM

    TLDR: The best go to US, the next best to MNCs and startups, the rest are the ones you get when you pay peanuts.

    Here's how Indian engineers get jobs.

    The very top(maybe 0.01%) get directly hired by US MNCs. This gives some people the "Indians are smart" stereotype.

    The next top(0.01% - 1%) work for US MNCs in India, or the few top homebred companies. Foreigners will rarely deal with them, as they are working on products, not services.

    The next few go into startups and some good service companies. These service companies are costly, after all, they have to pay much higher than what Infosys or TCS would do, to maintain these people. I don't know how many american tech workers come across these people, but a few must be. These people are probably the source of few comments saying that "some Indian workers I worked with were good".

    Now, the lower ones, will get into likes of TCS, Infosys and hundreds of small service companies that work on basis of "hire enmasse, at cheap, and sell at little higher cost". Now if you are paying peanuts, it is very foolish to expect people like Linus Torvalds. This gives people the, "Indian engineers are shit" stereotype.

  • by techresearch on 6/8/18, 5:14 PM

    Yeah man! Indian software work is pretty shoddy. That's why 80 percent of American software and IT outsourcing goes to India. And this has been going on for last 2 decades. Maybe you Americans don't care about quality as long as its done cheaply!!!
  • by senthil_rajasek on 6/7/18, 12:31 PM

    "Just make an 8 with your nose. :-)" I have lived in the states for 20 yrs. The comments in this thread are unbelievably culturally insensitive.
  • by aws_ls on 6/8/18, 10:56 AM

    I worked for Infosys for over 10 years. This article gets all the key facts right, but doesn't capture the soul of Infosys or the Indian IT Industry.

    I can offer so much on the topic, that it gets overwhelming as I type. So I am just writing my thoughts, some of them on the article and some based on the comments on this page.

    - Not all engineers are of low quality. In my experience about 10% of them are as good as SV engineers.

    - Infosys founder NRN is a socialist at heart. He pioneered sharing of wealth via stocks (ESOPs). And he did it so well, that all employees got it - drivers to janitors to sys admins to coders. So very unlike the shocking Amazon shop floor stories we hear.

    - It has resulted in an ecosystem of Startups in India. Many of the ex-employees who benefitted from the Infosys shares, are doing their own startups (many of them product startups, as a result of getting bored with IT services). So it has acted like a YCombinator of sorts. There even was a ex-Infoscion startup group. And the best part is they can do their own angel funding. So no running for VCs atleast in the early stages.

    - For the above reason, I revere him as much as may be a Gandhi or a MLK. The other two I read, only in a book. Very rarely do you get a chance to interact with truly great people IRL.

    - Jugaad. This a word I hate with a vengeance. That's what gives a bad impression to Indians. And admittedly it happens a lot. Although Infosys founders, in how they ran their company, serve largely as a counter example. Minus of course some things like H1B visa issue. Just as a contrast read the story of Satyam (another IT company) whose founder Raju did wholesale jugaad and landed in jail in 2009, because the real estate leverage built on fake salaries of fictitous employees, his jugaad, failed.

    - Product engineer skills. This is an area, where Infosys/others lack. And thats not only for aptitude or potential, but the culture. Because the Industry grew so fast - 100% YOY in early decades and 50% YOY in the last one - people were pushed to being managers & leads, after just two years of coding experience. And as such bulk of the work is very low quality coding.

    - But the numbers in India are so big. Whether its the population of a billion+ or no. of engineers. That there is both quality and quantity. Just look at any coding site (HackerRank, TopCoder et al) and you will see Indian programmers dominating in numbers as well as few performing at a world class quality level.

    - Regarding the bad experience, with Indian IT engineers. I wonder how many of them were with a company like Infosys and how many of them were with sites like UpWork/etc? Please note because of the overwhelming quantity of Indian engineers. Its not easy to find the quality engineers, which are also significant in number, but you have to be lucky or have to work hard. (Heck, may be there is a scope to do a TopTal like site, but just for India.)

  • by stealthmodeclan on 6/7/18, 8:57 AM

    What people don't realize is that there are tons of American companies which have offices in Banglore and one in texas or california and nearly all employees are Indian except a few.

    Those companies are massively profitable but they come across as American. Indian CEOs (somtimes even CEO is American but not having complete control over the corporation) of those companies send American employees for delivering keynotes. There is lots of this perception of being an American firm. But you'll be amazed there are many Russian,Chinese,Indian etc... As an American LLC.

    There is no stripe or Braintree in India.

    The day these are launched in India, you'll see boom in product companies operating entirely out of India till then....

    Also the best Indian engineers end up working for big companies like FANG.

    And they do not like putting their lives on stake for startups. So if you'll not find them begging for jobs at small companies.

  • by megaman22 on 6/7/18, 7:19 AM

    I can only hope so, after near on a decade of dealing with TCS, HCL, Cap Gemini, Cognizant, and others.

    I tend to get drawn in because I'm working for an ISV that makes a product. The Indian third-parties get drawn in because the real customwr has outsourced a function to them. I now have to deal with the incompetent pm on the $outsourced side, instead of the competent, reasonable pm on the real customer. And eight layers of red tape aroind simple config changes arise

  • by gaius on 6/7/18, 7:59 AM

    A company will outsource because it’s cheaper, in the short term at least. But an outsourcer runs on billable hours, so they are disincentivised to automate repetitive tasks.

    So here’s the new competition: outsourcer who can do the job for 1/10th the cost, or In-house engineers with advanced automation who can do 100x the work at the same cost.

    It’s not about West vs India, it’s about business models.

  • by buvanshak on 6/7/18, 9:21 AM

    around 10 years before, an IT professional was the hottest thing in the Indian marriage market (if I may use that term, which is common use around here.). There was no problem for one to find a bride if they are anywhere near IT. When you here that some girl is getting married, and ask what the groom is doing, 9 out of 10 times, it would be "Software Engineer in US". Now it is bank employees. No one needs IT professionals now...

    That should tell you something in lines of answering this question...

  • by Karishma1234 on 6/7/18, 6:48 AM

    I spend 6 months working from Sunnyvale and 6 months working from India. I have seen a remarkable improvement in quality of engineers. I think IT industry as such pretty much doomed because of automation, saturation and US immigration restrictions. The fresh graduates now I meet want to work on products. Products that are meant for Indian markets and other markets.

    India can take a big lead in AI and other things if it managed to reform its higher education and get rid of government controls in that space. If India opens up higher education sector much higher quality talent can be bred there.

  • by patrickg_zill on 6/7/18, 8:09 AM

    The problem is that only the top 10% of Indian programmers are in the top ten percent.
  • by onecooldev24 on 6/7/18, 8:29 AM

    Do companies write checks to plumbers of $100,000. No they don't, cause they don't deserve (intelligence required for the work they do) and the supply is abundant. Why can't western developers accept basic economics and move on to greener pastures.
  • by whatyoucantsay on 6/7/18, 7:51 AM

    It is telling that the defining book of the decade on tech startups—Zero to One was a runaway best-seller in China but didn't even sell 50,000 copies in India.

    India has, perhaps, relied too heavily on the 1 to N promise of globalisation and, in the process, won in a race to the bottom.