from Hacker News

Citadel's Ken Griffin Says Bitcoin ‘Bubble’ May End in Tears

by openmosix on 11/27/17, 7:30 PM with 122 comments

• by alehul on 11/27/17, 8:26 PM

  I'd agree with this sentiment.

  Stocks have tangible assets that generate earnings to justify their investment. Bitcoin, however, generates no real returns beyond its exploding popularity resulting in a higher price. While that doesn't automatically doom its fate (see: traditional currency pairs), Bitcoin is different in that its only real use so far is as an alternative bank account. It will likely remain this way until people can live their lives on Bitcoin in the way people live their lives on a traditional, centralized currency. Many people who simply use it as a bank account may deposit their money for a long period of time, resulting in a sustainable price; for simplicity's sake, we can give the benefit of the doubt and assume that 100% of those looking for an alternative bank rather than an investment will hold it indefinitely.

  The question is: Of those pushing the price from ~$750 to ~$10,000 in one year, after several years of stability in the ~$500 area, how many are looking to hold it as a bank account alternative, and how many are looking at it as an investment to eventually sell for a profit? Given the trajectory, it's hard to believe individuals are adopting it this rapidly for purposes other than investment; it seems like this 'mainstream adoption' is really just primarily mainstream investment. Is it sustainable when the majority of people are just buying in expectation of others buying? With companies like TSLA it can be sustainable, as investors believe that future earnings will justify the valuation. Here, there's nothing but a hope that others will buy because the price keeps going up.

  The only way this bubble doesn't pop is if the money being pumped into Bitcoin results in commercial adoption as a viable currency, however that seems unlikely in the meantime.

• by mc42 on 11/27/17, 8:17 PM

  Several years ago during the MTGox collapse, /r/bitcoin over on reddit had a suicide hotline pinned to the top as multiple evangelicals had sunken their life savings into BTC. It's going to be a very difficult situation if / when BTC crashes again, and it won't end well for just about anyone.

  Edit: changed "has" to "as", as it was a typo.

• by Tenobrus on 11/27/17, 8:18 PM

  Literally the same line about tulips has been repeated for the last 4 years. It's probably true, but at this point I'm curious why anyone is interested in yet another article saying exactly the same thing with no new information, content, evidence, anything.

• by hbosch on 11/27/17, 8:24 PM

  At some point, bitcoin is going to have to be worth more than just n USD... right? Other than buying in and cashing out, what is bitcoin useful for right now? What makes BTC today better than my cash?

  I am aware of the potential for cryptocurrency and I am aware of it's increasing value. But if all my money is tomorrow BTC instead of USD, for instance, how will I survive without converting it back into USD every time I needed to use it?

  Not trying to be facetious, just curious as to what the bitcoin crowd is using BTC for. If not to pay for goods and services, then isn't it a misnomer at this point to keep calling it a currency?

• by baxtr on 11/27/17, 8:19 PM

  My thinking is this: bitcoin and other digital currencies are becoming more and more “popular” (literally). More and more “ordinary” people start investing, the barriers of participation are coming down. As long as there is a large enough pool of people willing to join the party, prices will continue to rise. The question is when to pull out. I always get nervous when cab drivers start giving me free stock advice. Hasn’t happened yet with coins. So: way to go!

• by bg4 on 11/27/17, 8:20 PM

  Be scared when everyone is greedy, be greedy when everyone is scared.

• by colemannugent on 11/27/17, 8:41 PM

  What really underlies this issue is whether you think Bitcoin is over or undervalued. Griffin leads off saying this is a bubble understanding that the people at Blomberg already believe this.

  Without a real justification for why Griffin values Bitcoin at less than the current market price this article is nothing but fluff.

  Of course if it is a bubble, this is a bad thing for those invested in Bitcoin. That is not up for debate. If it does burst, there will be plenty of tears, but the value of the entire Bitcoin ecosystem is still tiny compared to classic commodities like gold or real estate.

  I have seen several articles here on HN recently that have seem to all confirm that Bitcoin is a bubble, but I haven't read anything that dives into the real substance behind the claim that Bitcoin is overvalued.

  I understand the scaling issues, but I am confident that something like the lightning network can solve those. I don't believe that all transactions can be on-chain as this would make running a full-node and verification of the entire chain very difficult over time.

• by frgtpsswrdlame on 11/27/17, 8:31 PM

  Alright guys, let's plot. How can we crash Bitcoin?

  Bitcoin is obviously a bit of a new bird when it comes to what sort of financial instrument it is. To me it seems to be half gold, a hedge against currency and other economic troubles and half ponzi scheme, a lot of the valuation is driven by the belief that there are more people in line behind you than there are in front of you.

  So if we take it that there is a bubbley aspect to bitcoin built upon ponzi scheme psychology but also the new aspect which is that many participants are aware it's a ponzi scheme and still believe in it anyway - is there anyway to pop it? It seems all the normal methods of popping a bubble like this have been eliminated by the completely decentralized nature of it. Is it even a bubble anymore if that's true?

• by Tossrock on 11/27/17, 8:46 PM

  Since I see a lot of people posting that there is no legitimate use case for Bitcoin, let me point out that the global remittance market is over $500 billion per year. Being able to cheaply and easily move money between countries is a huge need, and bitcoin is good at that. This isn't even touching grey-area financial services like evading capital controls, routing around artificially pegged currencies (ie what's happening Argentina), etc. This isn't to say that there isn't a big ugly correction coming, but it's not accurate to say that Bitcoin has no value/purpose.

• by free_everybody on 11/27/17, 8:59 PM

  Why are bitcoin prices going up? Because there's no reason why they should go down.

  People who buy bitcoin are largely trying to buy in "early". This raises the price, which makes other people want to be in "early". This raises the price, etc etc etc.

  Bitcoin has legitimate uses, but most people who buy crypto don't plan to use it. They plan to sell it. And they rely on the newcomers to inflate the price. Very much a pyramid type model. I think the most real threat is legislation restricting its handling.

  Until then, bitcoin price is not going to stop rising.

• by skydv on 11/28/17, 6:21 AM

  If I was given 1 satoshi every time I hear some old fart is preaching Bitcoin doomsday I would be a trillionaire. I can summarize it without even reading into

  I don't get Bitcoin, why don't they all use banks instead, banks are cool because I use them and I am def cool. Bitcoin is not supported by anything, look at that nice cool bank where we used to fuck whores, USD is backed by all that coolness, Bitcoin is backed only by math and I don't get math.

  But tbh fees are now ridiculous, I think Bitcoin will crash soon

• by sireat on 11/27/17, 8:21 PM

  There is no question this is yet another bubble due for a pullback because there are no fundamentals supporting it.

  Bonus points if one can point to a well researched article on positive catalysts for BTC in 2018.

  Only thing is no one knows when and how deep the pullback will be.

  It could go up to 12-15k and then drop to 3-5k. Or it could go up to 20k and drop to 1k. No one knows.

  Disclaimer: I've only mined and sold my BTC since 2011 no speculation.

• by alkonaut on 11/27/17, 8:23 PM

  If a viable cryptocurrency that doesn’t use massive amounts of energy for its transactions would come along, wouldn’t that pose a huge risk to btc? At that point, shouldn’t btc just be “outlawed” (to the extent it can be, e.g target exchanges, banning payment in physical stores and similar). It should go the way of incandescent light bulbs.

• by sergiotapia on 11/27/17, 8:52 PM

  Bitcoin is going mainstream just now, at $9800/btc it's STILL early stage. At this point it will just continue growing because of finite amount and mainstream adoption.

  I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC reach $50,000 by December next year.

• by root_axis on 11/27/17, 10:27 PM

  Bitcoin let's you send peer to peer payments online without going through a financial institution; that's what the whitepaper says it was designed to do, and that is what it does. We can all agree on that. I think everyone can also agree that there is some utility in that capability.

  The question now becomes, what is the relationship between that utility and the quantity of bitcoin owned? I think the answer is clear: there is none, and based on that, I think it's safe to conclude that this gigantic rally based on a desire to own bitcoin is very likely a bubble.

• by Matt_Mickiewicz on 11/27/17, 8:18 PM

  "May" = pointing out a possibility vs. making a prediction.

  Ken Griffin "may" find a $10 bill on the street today. He "may" see his stock portfolio flash crash 30% this week.

  Why is this even news?

• by whataretensors on 11/27/17, 8:46 PM

  Banker says banking alternatives are not good. Color me surprised.

• by wslh on 11/27/17, 8:22 PM

  I found very interesting the community discourse change from having a currency to use for sending transactions anywhere and with tiny fees to Bitcoin is a value reserve like Gold. The last assertion existed before but companies like BitPay, Coinbase and others were oriented to the former use case.

• by wol_ on 11/27/17, 10:04 PM

  sure, sure. i've been hearing it for years, the same bubble talk and questions about it's utility. the same nobodies yelling about tulips and and pyramid schemes. i expect this low effort discourse but it is pathetic to see this unsubstantiated bullshit discussed in any seriousness. unfortunately i expect more stories like his as wall street comes to grips with this technology. i'm sure there will be efforts to undermine and manipulate the market but as long as bitcoin continues to be censorship resistant and decentralized there is not a damn thing anybody can do to stop its spread. every simpleton thinks they have some unique insight on why it will not work while the smart people have been working on improvements to the protocol.

• by bertomartin on 11/27/17, 8:38 PM

  Headlines like these give me confidence that it will keep going. It may crash, however, most people would be caught off-guard...these things aren't telegraphed, plus, what's the motive? To save me money? or to make more money for himself?

• by lostmsu on 11/27/17, 8:16 PM

  I may end today in tears.

• by bfrog on 11/27/17, 7:58 PM

  Honestly at this point if it collapses, it could be the trigger for a market pull back

• by desireco42 on 11/27/17, 8:03 PM

  Financial movers and shakers are trying to spook people and delay inevitable until they can grasp what is happening.

  There will definitely be a lot of corrections, but I see stable future for bitcoin as an asset.

• by rubbingalcohol on 11/27/17, 8:10 PM

  It may just as well end in tears for the nay-sayers who were too chicken shit to buy in while teenagers got rich off decentralized currency.