from Hacker News

Lessons I Learned from the Dotcom Bubble for the Coming Cryptocurrency Bubble

by nestorp on 5/27/17, 7:13 PM with 89 comments

  • by jonnathanson on 5/28/17, 10:44 PM

    Respectfully, I think a lot of comments on this topic are missing the point of the author's advice. Whether there is or is not a bubble, and if there is, how big that bubble might get, are irrelevant here. That's not what this article is about.

    First, the author assumes there is a bubble brewing. That's not his thesis; that's his background assumption. His thesis is that, assuming there is a bubble, you should do X, Y, and Z, and not do A, B, and C.

    So yeah, after reading this, we could argue once again about whether there's a bubble or not. But the more interesting argument is about whether his advice is sound. Not whether his assumption is sound.

  • by Ologn on 5/28/17, 10:02 PM

    The difference is the dot-com stocks had some theoretical value - even Pets.com, people buy pet supplies online after all.

    Unlike commodities, equities and so forth, cryptocoins have no value whatsoever. So to try to make it sound like it has worth, its pushers have to cast about for anything they can and finally come upon the only thing they can - the dollar. In fact, they say, it's even better than the dollar.

    It would take too long to explain here why the Bitcoin is not like the only thing they have left to compare it to, the dollar. Also, an explanation won't sway anyone who has already had a drink of the kool-aid any how.

    May I recommend another message board for all those high on cryptocoins here - 4chan ( http://boards.4chan.org/biz/catalog ). 4chan /biz/ is filled with uneducated, poor kids all looking to get wealthy with little work on the cryptocoin get rich quick schemes.

    I think it's a much better message board for all of you of this bent. Here on HN there are still some people who believe in studying math and science and engineering and CS at universities, and then going and doing a lot of hard work and creating wealth. 4chan is mostly filled with your types - the get-rich-quick scam artists. Go read 4chan /biz/ right now - it's filled with no work, no study, get rich quick types like yourself. Leave and go there. HN will be stuck with those "out of it" old fogies who actually believe in study, hard work, that commodities need value to have worth in the long-term, and old-fashioned, out of touch ideas like that.

  • by chamza on 5/28/17, 7:23 PM

    Internet companies during the dotcom bubble had market value of several trillion dollars.

    The total market cap of crypto-currency is still only ~$70 billion. I agree with the principle, but this boom is still pretty modest.

  • by kevando on 5/28/17, 6:55 PM

    Does anyone think that when the crypto bubble bursts, that will cause a stock market level crash?

  • by 1001101 on 5/28/17, 10:42 PM

    Glad I sold my Amazon stock in 1999.

  • by learc83 on 5/29/17, 3:49 AM

    If governments start to actually fear that their monopoly on creating currency is in danger, they will destroy crypto currency.

    Bitcoin may be decentralized, but they can go after currency converters. They can make holding it illegal. They can make mining it illegal. They can make trading it illegal.

    They can manipulate the market to crash the value of bitcoin with (to them) pocket change.

  • by Entangled on 5/29/17, 12:52 AM

    I will make a prediction so I can come back and make fun of myself in a month. It is a bubble and it will pop real soon going down back to $500 bringing down all the alts with it, then it will slowly go up again at a normal pace for the next couple of years.

  • by ufo on 5/29/17, 7:31 AM

    What did the cummulative registered users metric mean in the dot com days?

  • by problems on 5/29/17, 4:16 AM

    Can we get this renamed to reflect that that is a cryptocurrency bubble and not a "crypto bubble"?

    It certainly isn't discussing companies working on cryptographic technologies like I initially assumed.

  • by S410520 on 5/29/17, 8:12 AM

    Don't borrow to invest in something? Ever heard of leverage? Such a stupid argument. How about you talk about why that carries so much risk and teach people something instead of this click bait shit

  • by anjc on 5/28/17, 8:04 PM

    Sounds like you're conflating the value of the coins with the corporate value being invested. Corporations are dedicating a desk or a lab or a few staff to Crypto. There may be a decrease in the value of coins but there's no bubble to pop on the organisational side.