from Hacker News

Are we on American Idol?

by juanignacio on 4/9/17, 1:11 PM with 11 comments

I always felt pitty for those poor souls being crushed after they are told that no, they won't be winning American Idol.

It felt weird because the chances are so slim that one would assume that not winning should not come as a surprise or a shocker. Still they cry. Most seemed to be convinced they were "destined" to win. That clearly can not be the case.

Now, the 14,000+ companies that applied to Startup School made me think that I might be inside a similar reality distortion field.

I know that in the "unicorn contest" there can be multiple winners, and that is a big difference, but at the end the chances are still so slim...

  • by taway_1212 on 4/9/17, 7:00 PM

    > It felt weird because the chances are so slim that one would assume that not winning should not come as a surprise or a shocker. Still they cry.

    I've read an interview with ex-assistant on one of those shows and it was part of her job to routinely rile up contestants just before they were put in front of the camera. In this specific case, it was a "Top Chef" kind of show, and she was telling everyone that the celebrity chef running the show has just tried the contestant's dish and said that it's utter garbage etc (while in fact the dish was fine and they were not close to elimination) - everything to get them shaken and close to tears for the show. Very nasty business.

  • by veddox on 4/10/17, 5:41 PM

    I would attribute a lot of that to survivorship bias - we usually only hear about successes. (Nobody likes to talk about failures.) That leaves us with the impression that successes are a lot more common than they really are.

    Also, hope and optimism are very deeply entrenched in human psychology. Even when we know the odds are hopelessly stacked against us, we refuse to "stop believing in ourselves".

  • by smt88 on 4/9/17, 1:50 PM

    This is actually a great analogy that I'll use in the future when I meet people who think they're the next Mark Zuckerberg.

    Statistically speaking, I'd bet someone entering American Idol is more likely to win than a startup is likely to become a unicorn.

    (Also -- it's fine and normal to cry if your startup fails. For many or most, it will even result in clinical depression.)

  • by coralreef on 4/10/17, 7:42 AM

    You don't have to play the "startup" game. You can build a practical business with software.

  • by mrits on 4/9/17, 4:59 PM

    If you aren't having enough fun on the journey then you might not be cut out for it.